A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Security Services — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

The contract that pays this industry is domestic labor plus a monitoring subscription. Private security-guard employment was 825,447. The same 2025 file shows annual average establishments were 17,622. March 2026 month-3 employment was still 810,198. A China stop does not send those officers home.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov
The import hit on this opened line is small and Mexico-led. 50,691.29 divided by 842,298.79 equals a calculated China share of 6.02 percent. 415,473.09 divided by 842,298.79 equals a calculated Mexico share of 49.3 percent. The line is HS 853110, burglar or fire alarms and similar apparatus, in thousand USD. It is not a camera-only customs line.
wits.worldbank.org
The monitoring contract is a separate book from guarding. ADT Inc. had approximately 6.1 million security monitoring service subscribers as of December 31, 2025. Recurring monthly revenue was 359 million dollars. Six centers are described as fully redundant. This filing is the U.S. monitoring contract. It is not the Australian ADT brand.
sec.gov
Cyber lands on the platform, the app, and named cameras before it lands on the guard. The calculated mitigation window is 21 days for Hikvision CVE-2017-7921, from 2026-03-05 to 2026-03-26. FAR requires a covered-equipment report within 1 business day and further information within 10 business days. Those clocks are the short horizon. A measured center-outage in days was not in the 10-K.
cisa.gov acquisition.gov sec.gov
Integrator pay and guard pay are different books. The private security-guard weekly wage rose 3.5 percent. The private security-systems weekly wage rose 6.4 percent. Security-systems employment was 140,506 against guard employment of 825,447. Armored car services, NAICS 561613, had 26,011 private employees in 2024 and are not added to either book.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov data.bls.gov

Why security services gets hit in this scenario

A China trade stop removes the China row on HS 853110, which is 50,691.29 thousand USD inside a world total of 842,298.79 thousand USD. The calculated China share of 6.02 percent is the size of that row. Mexico at 415,473.09 thousand USD remains the largest partner on the opened table.
wits.worldbank.org
The low-exposure proof is a failed camera query plus an opened heading with no row named Taiwan. No partner on the opened HS 853110 table is named Taiwan. A refetched HS 852589 query returned a WITS error page and supplied no figure. The Census international-trade API returned a Missing Key page and supplied no figure. The residual label Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan and is not used as a figure.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org api.census.gov
ADT says a global memory chip shortage may increase equipment costs and could lead to fulfillment delays or re-engineering. The sentence does not name a country. It is not used here as a Taiwan share.
sec.gov
Centers already describe a transfer path for telephone or computer interruption. That is an operational buffer, not a count of spare cameras. No weeks-of-lead-time figure was on the 10-K pages read.
sec.gov
Cyber disruption, in this planning model, hits monitoring centers, the ADT+ app, and cameras already on the CISA list before it hits guard payroll. The calculated mitigation window is 21 days on the 2026 Hikvision row.
sec.gov cisa.gov
Federal contractors add a compliance clock. A report is due within 1 business day, and further mitigation information is due within 10 business days, for covered Hikvision and Dahua video equipment.
acquisition.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon contract price: recurring monthly revenue was 359 million dollars as of December 31, 2025. This is a monthly level. It is not a year-over-year peak.
sec.gov
Short-horizon labor level and wage change together: March 2026 month-3 employment was 810,198, and the private security-guard weekly wage rose 3.5 percent. The wage change is year-over-year. The employment level is the monthly analog beside it.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov
Short-horizon cyber clock: the calculated mitigation window is 21 days, and further FAR mitigation information is due within 10 business days. Neither figure is an annual peak.
cisa.gov acquisition.gov

1–6 months

Integrator wage band: the private security-systems weekly wage rose 6.4 percent, to 1,641 dollars. Guard wages are a different series and stay in the first band.
data.bls.gov

12+ months

Equipment-price band carried from the filing's tariff history: tariffs were as high as 25 percent. The guard-employment projection of 1 percent to 2035 is the labor path beside that price history, not a tariff.
sec.gov bls.gov

Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is the monitoring center, the customer alarm app, cameras on the CISA list, and FAR covered video equipment. The calculated mitigation window is 21 days. The clause clock is within 1 business day and within 10 business days. This order is a planning model.

sec.gov cisa.gov acquisition.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 indirect is the integrator who installs that gear and the dealer whose charge-back runs generally thirteen months if the subscriber cancels. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1 percent before the scenario. This order is a planning model.

data.bls.gov sec.gov cisa.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 indirect is contract guarding and in-house guarding, which continue. Wave 3 direct is the small guard firm whose single login is a later target. Private security-guard employment was 825,447. Firms under five employees were 2,797. This order is a planning model.

data.bls.gov www2.census.gov bls.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

6.02levelChina alarm-apparatus share

calculated China share of 6.02 percent

WITS United States HS 853110 imports, 2024

49.3levelMexico alarm-apparatus share

calculated Mexico share of 49.3 percent

WITS United States HS 853110 imports, 2024

17.6levelCalifornia guard employment

calculated California employment share of 17.6 percent

BLS QCEW private NAICS 561612, 2025 annual

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

3.5increase0-3 monthsGuard weekly wage

private security-guard weekly wage rose 3.5 percent

BLS QCEW private NAICS 561612, 2025 annual

6.4increase1-6 monthsSystems weekly wage

private security-systems weekly wage rose 6.4 percent

BLS QCEW private NAICS 561621, 2025 annual

25increase12+ monthsHistorical tariff ceiling

tariffs were as high as 25 percent

ADT Inc. Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025

us monthly contractmillion USD

359level0-3 monthsRecurring monthly revenue

recurring monthly revenue was 359 million

ADT Inc. Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025

Downstream scale

workforcepeople

825,447levelContract security guards

private security-guard employment was 825,447

BLS QCEW private NAICS 561612, 2025 annual

sitescount

17,622levelGuard establishments

annual average establishments were 17,622

BLS QCEW private NAICS 561612, 2025 annual

Operating prints

daysdays

21levelHikvision catalog window

calculated mitigation window is 21 days

CISA Known Exploited Vulnerabilities catalog

1levelFAR first report

within 1 business day

FAR 52.204-25

10levelFAR follow-up

within 10 business days

FAR 52.204-25

ratespercent

13.1levelGross attrition

gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1 percent

ADT Inc. Form 10-K for the year ended December 31, 2025

What to do

Day 7

List monitoring centers, the customer app, and any Hikvision or Dahua cameras against the CISA rows. The calculated mitigation window is 21 days on CVE-2017-7921. A federal contractor reports covered gear within 1 business day.
cisa.gov acquisition.gov sec.gov
Confirm the guard roster still fills posts. The latest monthly print is 810,198 private security-guard employees in March 2026. Do not treat a China shipping stop as a reason to stand the roster down.
data.bls.gov

Day 30

Separate the alarm-apparatus buy into the partners already on the WITS table. China is the calculated China share of 6.02 percent. Mexico is the calculated Mexico share of 49.3 percent. Do not label Other Asia, nes as Taiwan.
wits.worldbank.org
Read dealer charge-backs against the thirteen-month window and against gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1 percent. That attrition print is not a published covenant.
sec.gov

Day 90

Re-price integrator labor off the security-systems wage, not the guard wage. The private security-systems weekly wage rose 6.4 percent. The private security-guard weekly wage rose 3.5 percent.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov
If China-origin cameras cannot be replaced, use the historical tariff path as the cost case. Tariffs were as high as 25 percent. A weeks-of-lead-time figure was not published.
sec.gov

What to watch

QCEW private NAICS 561612 month-3 employment. Act when month-3 employment prints below 810,198. That figure is the March 2026 level. The 810,198 line is a planning line. BLS does not publish it as a covenant.
data.bls.gov
Gross customer revenue attrition. Act when gross customer revenue attrition prints above 13.1 percent. That figure is the December 31, 2025 print. The 13.1 percent line is a planning line. The 10-K does not call it a covenant.
sec.gov
China share of U.S. HS 853110 imports. Act when a refetched China share prints above 6.02 percent. The 6.02 percent figure is 50,691.29 divided by 842,298.79 on the 2024 table. The 6.02 percent line is a planning line. WITS does not publish it as a covenant.
wits.worldbank.org
Covered video-equipment report time. Act when a covered Hikvision or Dahua identification is not reported within 1 business day. The 1 business day figure is the FAR clause. It is a clause deadline, not a loan covenant.
acquisition.gov

By role

Monitoring-center operators

Drill the transfer across the six centers the 10-K describes.
Watch the month against recurring monthly revenue was 359 million dollars.
Treat attrition above 13.1 percent as the planning line, not as a covenant breach.

sec.gov

Electronic-security integrators

Split open orders into the HS 853110 partners, and do not call Other Asia, nes Taiwan.
Patch or retire Hikvision and Dahua units that match the CISA rows inside the calculated mitigation window is 21 days.
Price labor off the 6.4 percent systems wage change, not the guard wage.

wits.worldbank.org cisa.gov data.bls.gov

Guarding firms

Keep the roster against the 810,198 monthly level.
Do not add armored-car employment of 26,011 to the guard total.
Treat in-house guard jobs as a different universe from the 825,447 contract-industry employees.

data.bls.gov data.bls.gov bls.gov data.bls.gov

Weekly checks

Private NAICS 561612 month-3 employment The latest opened monthly level is 810,198 in March 2026. A weekly roster check uses that level until the next QCEW quarter is published. The 2026 second-quarter file returned HTTP 404 and is not a level.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov
Recurring monthly revenue and gross attrition Recurring monthly revenue was 359 million dollars. Gross customer revenue attrition was 13.1 percent. Both are the monitoring contract, watched on the billing cycle.
sec.gov
CISA due date on named camera rows The calculated mitigation window is 21 days for the Hikvision row added in March 2026. New catalog rows would reset that clock. The catalog does not print a war schedule.
cisa.gov
HS 853110 China value versus the world total The planning comparison is 50,691.29 against 842,298.79 thousand USD, the calculated China share of 6.02 percent. A refetched table is the test. The 2024 table is the baseline.
wits.worldbank.org

What is not known

The unpublished primary is a customs dollar line that names Taiwan for cameras, sensors, alarm panels, or recorders. The low-exposure proof is the opened HS 853110 heading, which has no Taiwan row, plus the HS 852589 page, which returned a WITS error and supplied no figure, plus the Census trade API, which returned a Missing Key page and supplied no figure. The residual label Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan and is not used as a figure. That proof is the limit. It is not a published zero.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org api.census.gov
The 2026 second-quarter QCEW industry file for NAICS 561612 returned HTTP 404 and supplied no figure. No second-quarter level is used. The Census CBP API for NAICS 561612 returned a Missing Key page and supplied no figure. QCEW establishments are the count that was read.
data.bls.gov api.census.gov data.bls.gov
Calculated figures are only the shares stated as calculated: China 6.02 percent, Mexico 49.3 percent, California guards 17.6 percent, Texas systems 13.3 percent, SUSB 5,000-plus employment 51.5 percent, and the 21-day catalog window. Subscriber counts and RMR are not divided into an ARPU.
wits.worldbank.org data.bls.gov data.bls.gov www2.census.gov cisa.gov sec.gov
NAICS 561613 armored car, 26,011 employees in 2024, is not part of the guard total. NAICS 5616 parent employment is not used and children are not summed to a parent. SUSB 2022 firms are not added to QCEW 2025 establishments. Occupation jobs of 1,294,300 are not added to industry jobs of 825,447.
data.bls.gov data.bls.gov www2.census.gov bls.gov
Crime and cyber figures are not the security firm's loss. No U.S. crime rate is used. The CISA rows are demand to patch or remove cameras. ACSC business-loss dollars are not in this U.S. report.
cisa.gov

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Monitoring centers	The monthly monitoring contract continues only if the centers and their transfer paths stay up.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	See node sources
Customer alarm apps	The customer alarm app is the path the subscriber uses to arm, view, and call the center.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	See node sources
Cameras on the known-exploited list	Named camera firmware on the exploited-vulnerability list has to be mitigated or removed, and the calculated mitigation window is 21 days.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	See node sources
Federal covered video equipment	A federal contractor must identify covered video-surveillance gear and report it within 1 business day.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	See node sources
Contract guarding payroll	Domestic guarding payroll continues, and a China stop does not remove the workforce.	0-3 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	See node sources
Security-systems integrators	Integrators keep installing, and a China stop hits the gear they put on the wall more than the installer payroll.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	See node sources
Alarm-apparatus imports	Imported alarm apparatus keeps moving from Mexico and other partners, with China a small share of this line.	1-6 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	See node sources
Dealer charge-back books	Purchased monitoring accounts can be charged back to the dealer for about a year after acquisition.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	See node sources
Small guard firms	Firms with fewer than five employees are numerous and hold little of the employment.	12+ months	Wave 3 (direct)	See node sources
In-house guards outside the contract industry	A large share of guard jobs sits with employers that are not contract-guard firms.	12+ months	Wave 3 (indirect)	See node sources

Security Services — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

What happens

Why security services gets hit in this scenario

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

Monitoring-center operators

Electronic-security integrators

Guarding firms

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources