A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Insurance — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

This industry is the policy, the premium, and the claim. Countrywide direct premiums written on the 2025 market-share report were 1109793590383 dollars across states, U.S. territories, Canada, and aggregate other alien. State Farm held a 10.39 percent share of countrywide direct premiums written. Private-passenger auto direct premiums written were 371041999429 dollars. Private-passenger auto was a calculated 33.4 percent of countrywide direct premiums written. The two inputs are 371041999429 and 1109793590383 on that report. Homeowners direct premiums written were 188687107945 dollars. Domestic auto and home cover continues when China trade stops.
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The China stop that a filing actually prints is an investment book, not a marine premium. U.S. insurers' exposure to China bonds and stocks totaled 1.6 billion dollars at year-end 2024, down from 2 billion dollars at year-end 2023. Foreign investments in the same report's total column were 259.9 billion dollars of book/adjusted carrying value. China bonds and stocks were a calculated 0.6 percent of foreign investments. The two inputs are 1.6 and 259.9. About 55 percent of the China book, 894 million dollars, was in bonds, of which only 3 percent were sovereign. The page does not split that 1.6 billion dollars between life and property-casualty.
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A China share of admitted ocean-marine direct premium, and a China share of trade-credit direct premium, were not on any page opened. Licensed property and casualty insurers wrote ocean-marine direct premiums of 5,185,940,467 dollars in all states in 2025. That figure is Appendix E of the Illinois compilation, the consolidated exhibit for licensed insurers in all states, and the next money column on that row is direct premiums earned of 5,217,239,486 dollars. The Illinois-only ocean-marine row of 201,098,149 dollars is not this national book. The China share of the all-states premium remains unpublished. Surplus-lines marine, a different pool, was 5.2 billion dollars in 2025. Marine and aviation net premiums earned were 665306 thousand dollars. The filing's marine description includes ocean marine and hull war. It does not name a China premium.
idoi.illinois.gov content.naic.org sec.gov content.naic.org
The short-horizon underwriting analog is a quarter, not a year-over-year peak. The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent. On the same snapshot the loss ratio was 64.3 percent, the expense ratio was 25.1 percent, and the dividend ratio was 2.4 percent. First-quarter 2026 property-and-casualty net premiums written were 252697 million dollars.
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Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent. That is the fourth-quarter 2025 Council of Insurance Agents and Brokers print inside the NAIC 2025 analysis, and it was the highest of the lines in that survey. Commercial property premiums decreased 0.7 percent. The claims-severity input that was fetched for commercial auto is the countrywide direct loss ratio of 66.81, not a repair invoice. No repair-cost figure was opened.
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Cyber is two books. The carrier's own systems sit in the Financial Services Sector, which includes insurance companies, and the Department of the Treasury is the Sector Risk Management Agency. The product book that was opened is AXIS. Cyber net premiums earned were 310837 thousand dollars. Cyber was 7 percent of insurance net premiums earned. Wave order is a planning model.
cisa.gov sec.gov
Taiwan in the filings opened is an event loss, not a premium share and not a probable-maximum-loss zone. The quake loss is a claims event, not a premium share, and that is the low-exposure proof. Everest's 2024 Form 10-K names a Taiwan earthquake of 23 million dollars inside current-year catastrophe losses of 668 million dollars and, again, inside reinsurance-segment current-year catastrophe losses of 583 million dollars. Those are two presentations of one event. No Taiwan premium or reserve was in the Everest or AXIS filings opened. The AXIS 2025 Form 10-K does not name Taiwan.
sec.gov sec.gov

What the China stop does to a premium, a claim, and a balance sheet

China trade stopping removes voyages and buyers. It does not, on the pages opened, remove a published share of admitted ocean-marine or trade-credit premium. The Census trade shares printed on the NAIC foreign-investment report are Mexico 15 percent, Canada 14 percent, and China 9 percent of U.S. total trade as of February 2025. Those are trade shares on that page, not cargo values and not insurer premium.
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The balance-sheet item that is quantified is the China bond-and-stock book of 1.6 billion dollars. About 55 percent, 894 million dollars, was in bonds. China bonds and stocks were a calculated 0.6 percent of foreign investments. United Kingdom exposure on the same country table was 53.0 billion dollars, Canada 48.1 billion dollars, and Australia 27.0 billion dollars.
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Domestic personal auto and homeowners premium continues. State Farm held a 10.39 percent share of countrywide direct premiums written. In private-passenger auto, State Farm's share was 18.64 percent and Progressive's share was 18.60 percent. A parts or repair slowdown, if it arrives, shows up as claims severity. The fetched severity input is the commercial-auto direct loss ratio of 66.81. No repair-cost figure was opened.
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Commercial auto is already the firm casualty line in the broker survey. Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent. The same survey's all-lines average increase was 1.9 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Commercial property premiums decreased 0.7 percent. Nine lines recorded premium decreases.
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Marine and trade credit that can be sized are a licensed all-states total, a surplus-lines total, and one group's segment, not a China slice. Licensed all-states ocean-marine direct premiums written were 5,185,940,467 dollars in 2025. The China share of that premium is unpublished. Surplus-lines marine premiums were 5.2 billion dollars. Marine and aviation was 16 percent of insurance net premiums earned. Credit and political risk gross premiums written were 384905 thousand dollars. Credit and political risk net premiums earned were 198649 thousand dollars. AXIS China references in that 10-K are reinsurance permissions, not a China premium. The China share of trade-credit direct premium is unpublished.
idoi.illinois.gov content.naic.org sec.gov
A direct cyber hit on claims or policy administration stops payment and endorsement even while the domestic premium is still in force. Insurance companies are inside the Financial Services Sector. Products named on that page include the transfer of financial risks between customers. The ordering of that hit before or after a broker platform is a planning inference.
cisa.gov
Taiwan export slowing is, in these filings, a catastrophe-loss fact rather than a semiconductor share. The Everest Taiwan earthquake loss is 23 million dollars inside the 668 million dollar company catastrophe list and inside the 583 million dollar reinsurance-segment list. Adding the two 23 million dollar figures would double-count one event.
sec.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon underwriting analog, labeled as a quarter: the first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent. The quarter is the period ended 31 March 2026. The loss ratio was 64.3 percent, the expense ratio was 25.1 percent, and the dividend ratio was 2.4 percent. This is not a year-over-year peak.
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Short-horizon price analog, labeled as a quarter: commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent. Commercial property premiums decreased 0.7 percent. Both are fourth-quarter 2025 survey prints inside the NAIC analysis.
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1–6 months

The claims-severity input for a repair slowdown over several months is the 2025 commercial-auto direct loss ratio of 66.81, and the loss-and-defense ratio of 73.61. No repair-cost invoice was fetched. An earlier one-quarter worsening on the snapshot, from 93.9 percent to 98.6 percent, is a calculated 4.7 points.
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12+ months

The full-year combined ratio was 92.9 percent. The professional-reinsurer combined ratio was 97.7 percent. California's pure direct loss ratio was 77.9 percent against 61.5 percent the year before. Those are year prints, not the first-quarter analog.
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Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is claims operations, because claim payment is the insurance function inside the Financial Services Sector. Wave 1 indirect is marine cargo underwriters and surplus-lines marine underwriters, because the voyage stops while the underwriter's system can still be up. This ordering is a planning model. The CISA page does not assign weeks.

cisa.gov cisa.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 direct is personal auto and homeowners carrier platforms, reinsurer platforms, and brokers. Wave 2 indirect is trade-credit losses, the life China asset, and cyber-insurance claims on client incidents. Cyber was 7 percent of insurance net premiums earned is the product baseline. This ordering is a planning inference.

sec.gov cisa.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 direct is small agencies. Insurers under 250 million dollars of assets under management held 1 percent of foreign investments. They are the distributed set, later than the claims utility. This ordering is a planning inference.

content.naic.org cisa.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

10.39levelState Farm share

State Farm held a 10.39 percent share of countrywide direct premiums written.

NAIC 2025 property and casualty market share

33.4levelPrivate-passenger auto

Private-passenger auto was a calculated 33.4 percent of countrywide direct premiums written.

NAIC 2025 property and casualty market share

0.6levelChina investments

China bonds and stocks were a calculated 0.6 percent of foreign investments.

NAIC foreign investments, year-end 2024

Cost and price shock by time bucket

quarterly ratiopercent

91.8level0-3 monthsFirst-quarter combined ratio

The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent.

NAIC industry snapshots, quarter ended 31 March 2026

92.9level12+ monthsFull-year combined ratio

The full-year combined ratio was 92.9 percent.

NAIC industry snapshots, year ended 31 December 2025

premium ratepercent

6.6increase0-3 monthsCommercial auto rate

Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent.

NAIC 2025 property and casualty and title analysis

0.7decline0-3 monthsCommercial property rate

Commercial property premiums decreased 0.7 percent.

NAIC 2025 property and casualty and title analysis

Downstream scale

line sharepercent

7levelAXIS cyber share of NPE

Cyber was 7 percent of insurance net premiums earned.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

16levelAXIS marine share of NPE

Marine and aviation was 16 percent of insurance net premiums earned.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

segment thousand dollarsthousand dollars

310837levelAXIS cyber NPE

Cyber net premiums earned were 310837 thousand dollars.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

665306levelAXIS marine NPE

Marine and aviation net premiums earned were 665306 thousand dollars.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

198649levelAXIS credit NPE

Credit and political risk net premiums earned were 198649 thousand dollars.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

press ransommillion dollars

40levelCNA ransom, press report

A press report says CNA paid 40 million dollars.

Bloomberg Law

surplus billionbillion dollars

5.2levelSurplus-lines marine

Surplus-lines marine premiums were 5.2 billion dollars.

NAIC 2025 surplus lines industry report

63.7levelSurplus-lines other liability

Other liability and product liability surplus-lines premiums were 63.7 billion dollars.

NAIC 2025 surplus lines industry report

143.3levelSurplus-lines total

Total surplus-lines direct premiums were 143.3 billion dollars.

NAIC 2025 surplus lines industry report

Operating prints

ratiospercent

91.8levelFirst-quarter combined ratio

The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent.

NAIC industry snapshots, quarter ended 31 March 2026

86.1levelAXIS insurance combined ratio

The insurance-segment combined ratio was 86.1 percent.

AXIS Capital Holdings Ltd. 2025 Form 10-K

97.7levelProfessional reinsurer combined ratio

The professional-reinsurer combined ratio was 97.7 percent.

NAIC 2025 property and casualty and title analysis

What to do

Day 7

Separate China-voyage cargo and China-buyer credit from domestic auto and homeowners. The domestic book is still in force. Private-passenger auto direct premiums written were 371041999429 dollars.
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Put claims payment and policy administration on the week-1 watch. Insurance companies are inside the Financial Services Sector. A press report says CNA paid 40 million dollars about two weeks after the lockout. CNA is not commenting on the ransom. No outage-day covenant was published. Wave order remains a planning model.
cisa.gov

Day 30

Mark the China bond-and-stock book of 1.6 billion dollars and compare it with the latest statutory carrying value. About 55 percent was bonds at year-end 2024.
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Read commercial auto severity against the direct loss ratio of 66.81 and the fourth-quarter rate. Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent. Do not import a repair-shop price that was not fetched.
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Day 90

Ask reinsurers for a Taiwan treaty premium or probable-maximum loss. The opened quantification is a 23 million dollar earthquake loss, not a zone share.
sec.gov
Compare the next quarterly combined ratio with the first-quarter print. The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent.
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What to watch

Quarterly property-and-casualty combined ratio. Act when the next quarterly property-and-casualty combined ratio prints above 91.8 percent. The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent. The 91.8 percent line is a planning line at that print. NAIC does not publish this covenant.
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China bonds and stocks, billion dollars of book/adjusted carrying value. Act when China bonds and stocks print below 0.8 billion dollars. Half of the year-end 2024 book of 1.6 billion dollars is 0.8, and that half is calculated. The 0.8 billion dollar line is a planning line. NAIC does not publish a minimum China book.
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Commercial auto direct loss ratio. Act when the countrywide commercial-auto direct loss ratio prints above 66.81. That figure is the 2025 direct loss to earned premium. The 66.81 line is a planning line for claims severity. It is not a repair-cost covenant, and no repair invoice was published on the pages opened.
content.naic.org
Commercial auto quarterly rate change, percent. Act when a quarterly commercial-auto premium change prints above 6.6 percent. Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent is the fourth-quarter 2025 baseline. The 6.6 percent line is a planning line. The survey publisher does not, on the page opened, state it as a covenant.
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By role

Personal auto and homeowners carriers

Keep the domestic premium forecast independent of China trade.
Staff a manual claims-payment path for the week-1 platform risk.
Watch the quarterly combined ratio against the 91.8 percent planning line.

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Marine and trade-credit underwriters

Endorse or non-renew only the limits whose wording names China.
Do not apply a China share to the 5.2 billion dollar surplus-lines marine total. That share was not published.
Keep hull-war wording separate from a peacetime cargo rate. No war-risk price was opened.

content.naic.org sec.gov

Life insurers and investment officers

Inventory the China bond-and-stock line against the 1.6 billion dollar industry baseline.
Use the 0.8 billion dollar planning line as the review point.
Do not assign the whole China book to life. The page does not split it.

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Reinsurers and brokers

Ask for a Taiwan premium or probable-maximum loss beyond the 23 million dollar event.
Track the professional-reinsurer combined ratio of 97.7 percent as the year baseline.
Keep broker placement systems on the Wave 2 list, with the 6.6 percent commercial-auto rate as the price signal.

sec.gov content.naic.org

Weekly checks

Claims-system availability and claim-payment backlog A press report says CNA paid 40 million dollars about two weeks after the lockout, and CNA is not commenting on the ransom. The CNA incident PDF returned HTTP 403. The weekly signal is whether the claims platform pays. The premium still in force includes private-passenger auto of 371041999429 dollars. The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent is the quarter analog.
cna.com content.naic.org
Quarterly combined ratio versus 91.8 percent The first-quarter combined ratio was 91.8 percent. A later quarter that moves through that print is the underwriting signal. The ratio includes a dividend ratio of 2.4 percent in that quarter.
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China bonds and stocks, book/adjusted carrying value The year-end 2024 baseline is 1.6 billion dollars. A break below half of that book is the planning line in the decision section.
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Commercial auto direct loss ratio and quarterly rate The 2025 direct loss ratio was 66.81. Commercial auto premiums increased 6.6 percent in the fourth quarter of 2025. Together they are the claims-severity and price baseline.
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Cyber and marine net premiums earned, AXIS insurance segment Cyber net premiums earned were 310837 thousand dollars. Marine and aviation net premiums earned were 665306 thousand dollars. A notice that either book is being non-renewed for China-related causes is the line-size signal.
sec.gov

What is not known

Observed baselines are the NAIC snapshots, the 2025 analysis, the market-share and surplus-lines reports, the foreign-investment report, the AXIS and Everest filings, and the CISA pages. Scenario inferences are wave order, any 2027 loss ratio, and the ability to cancel only the China-named wording.
content.naic.org cisa.gov
The unpublished primary is a China share of U.S. admitted ocean-marine direct premium, and the same gap exists for trade-credit direct premium. The NAIC market-share PDF does not print that China share. The opened all-states licensed total is ocean-marine direct premiums written of 5,185,940,467 dollars in 2025, and direct premiums earned of 5,217,239,486 dollars, with no China split. Surplus-lines marine of 5.2 billion dollars is not added to that licensed book. The Bureau of Transportation Statistics port-performance PDF returned HTTP 403 and the ROSAP copy returned HTTP 404. No cargo-value figure from search snippets is used.
content.naic.org idoi.illinois.gov content.naic.org bts.gov rosap.ntl.bts.gov
A Taiwan premium and a Taiwan reserve were not in the Everest or AXIS filings opened. The quake loss is a claims event, not a premium share. The Everest figure is a 23 million dollar earthquake loss inside two catastrophe lists that must not be added. The China share of admitted ocean-marine premium, and the China share of trade-credit direct premium, stay unpublished.
sec.gov sec.gov
The CNA incident update PDF returned HTTP 403. A press report says CNA paid 40 million dollars about two weeks after the lockout, and CNA is not commenting on the ransom. That press report is not a filing day count. CNA's market share of 1.31 percent is a premium fact, not an outage. Wave order remains a planning model.
cna.com news.bloomberglaw.com content.naic.org
Calculated shares use two figures on the cited page and are labeled. Private-passenger auto uses 371041999429 divided by 1109793590383, reported as 33.4 percent. China investments use 1.6 divided by 259.9, reported as 0.6 percent. The Table 5 total of 259.7 is a rounding footnote and is not the denominator. The 4.7 point combined-ratio move uses 98.6 minus 93.9. The 0.8 billion dollar planning line is half of 1.6. No repair-cost number from another industry file is used.
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AXIS China mentions that were found are reinsurance permissions in China, not a premium. Tabular dollars are in thousands unless the filing says otherwise. The 51.5 billion dollars of unaffiliated assumed premium and the 51.5 percent professional-reinsurer share are different facts that share a printed number. The first-quarter combined ratio of 91.8 percent includes a dividend ratio of 2.4 percent.
sec.gov content.naic.org content.naic.org

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Personal auto and homeowners carriers	Domestic personal auto and homeowners premium keeps being written, with a claims-severity path if repairs slow.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (direct)	NAIC market share; commercial-auto direct loss ratio 66.81
Claims operations	A direct hit on the claims platform stops payment on policies that are still in force.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	NAIC first-quarter combined ratio; CISA financial sector
Marine cargo underwriters	China-voyage cargo loses a lawful discharge, and no admitted ocean-marine China premium share was published.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	NAIC surplus-lines marine; AXIS marine and aviation
Trade-credit and political-risk underwriters	Buyer and sovereign non-payment follows the trade stop on a named credit book, not on a China premium split.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	AXIS credit and political risk net premiums earned
Life carriers	Life premium continues, and the printed China bond-and-stock book is small inside foreign investments.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	NAIC life snapshot; foreign-investment China book
Reinsurers	Professional reinsurers keep a large assumed book, and the opened Taiwan figure is one earthquake loss.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (direct)	NAIC professional reinsurers; Everest Taiwan earthquake
Brokers	Broker rate surveys are the placement signal, and broker platforms are an enterprise target.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	NAIC analysis, fourth-quarter 2025 commercial rates
Cyber-insurance underwriters	The cyber product pays client incidents, on top of any outage of the carrier's own systems.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	AXIS cyber net premiums earned; CISA Volt Typhoon title
Surplus-lines marine underwriters	The opened marine premium is the surplus-lines marine total, not an admitted China cargo share.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	NAIC 2025 surplus-lines report
Small agencies	Small balance sheets hold little of the foreign-investment book and sit in the later distributed wave.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	NAIC foreign investments by assets under management

Insurance — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

What happens

What the China stop does to a premium, a claim, and a balance sheet

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

Personal auto and homeowners carriers

Marine and trade-credit underwriters

Life insurers and investment officers

Reinsurers and brokers

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources