A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Ports and Maritime — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

The China stop at Los Angeles is a cargo-value stop, not a shutdown of the gateway. China and Hong Kong are printed as one partner at 82 billion dollars inside cargo value of 301 billion dollars. Calculated from those two rounded billions, that partner is a calculated 27.2 percent of Port of Los Angeles cargo value. Vietnam at 48 billion dollars, Japan at 45 billion dollars, South Korea at 21 billion dollars, and Taiwan at 18 billion dollars stay on the same partner table.
portoflosangeles.org
Taiwan on that table is a calculated 6.0 percent of Port of Los Angeles cargo value, from 18 billion dollars and 301 billion dollars, rounded to one decimal. Northeast Asia at 59 percent of cargo handled is a region, and it includes China, so it is not the book that keeps moving.
portoflosangeles.org
The East Coast origin count that is actually printed is at New York and New Jersey. China-origin volume of 1,176,064 TEU is the 2024 row. Hong Kong is a separate row at 95,203 TEU and is not added to China here. India-origin volume of 323,293 TEU and Vietnam-origin volume of 321,188 TEU are the next origin rows and can still move.
panynj.gov
The operational China dependency that bites the crane is the OEM, not a crane census. ZPMC produces nearly 80 percent of the STS cranes used at U.S. ports. ZPMC holds 70 percent of the global market share. There are no domestic manufacturing alternatives for STS cranes in the U.S. The Port of Los Angeles lists 85 ship-to-shore container cranes and does not split them by OEM. A named-gateway ZPMC count was not opened.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov portoflosangeles.org
Parts lead time is printed as storage in the PRC. ABB stores its internal components in the PRC for up to 18 months. That window is the 12-month-and-beyond parts case. It is not a count of cranes.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
Domestic waterborne cargo does not need a Chinese shipper. The fact card prints domestic traffic of 744.5 million short tons. The same card prints foreign traffic of 1,634.6 million short tons, which is all foreign partners, not a China-only tonne.
publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil
The one-month operating print is November total volume was 782,249.00 TEU at Los Angeles. The year-over-year cell on that row is not used as the shock. The historical cash analog is the 2017 NotPetya loss, and that annual report does not print a day count. The opened day count is 10 days after first detecting the incident, comprising some 30,137 containers.
portoflosangeles.org companiesmarketcap.com dpworld.com

Why U.S. ports are hit, and what keeps moving

China-origin boxes and the China and Hong Kong value row stop on day one. At Los Angeles that row is 82 billion dollars. At New York and New Jersey the China row is 1,176,064 TEU and the Hong Kong row stays separate.
portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov
Allied and other-Asia cargo keeps a printed book. Vietnam, Japan, and South Korea are on the Los Angeles value table. India and Vietnam are on the New York and New Jersey origin table. Taiwan is on the Los Angeles value table and is absent from the New York and New Jersey top-ten origin list.
portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov
The equipment bite is the STS crane. Nearly 80 percent of U.S. STS cranes are ZPMC, third-party components are installed in the PRC, and ABB storage in the PRC runs for up to 18 months. Remote-access requests, with a West Coast focus, are a committee finding.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
A terminal operating-system outage stops the gate even when the allied ship is alongside. ACSC states that safety is paramount, that OT must be segmented from other networks, and that the supply chain must be secure. Engineering configuration data may last for 20 or more years. Paying a ransom is not a way to verify a safe state.
cyber.gov.au
Domestic cargo is the book that does not clear through China. Domestic traffic of 744.5 million short tons is coastwise, lakewise, and internal, including local and intra-territory traffic in the total. Foreign traffic of 1,634.6 million short tons is a different series.
publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon operating print, one month: November total volume was 782,249.00 TEU. This is gateway throughput for a single month. It is not a year-over-year peak and it is not a loss estimate.
portoflosangeles.org
Short-horizon cash analog, historical: within a brief period after the June 2017 NotPetya attack, losses were in the order of USD 250-300 million. The annual report does not print a day or week count. The interim investor page returned HTTP 403, so a week count from that page is unpublished. The opened day count is 10 days after first detecting the incident, and the same statement's container count is comprising some 30,137 containers.
companiesmarketcap.com dpworld.com

1–6 months

Through six months the parts window is already the 18-month PRC storage fact, so a component that was in China at the start of the conflict is not back on a U.S. dock on a published shorter cycle. Authority cash to watch is operating revenue of 799 million dollars, which is a baseline, not a predicted loss.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov portoflosangeles.org

12+ months

Long-horizon constraint: ABB stores its internal components in the PRC for up to 18 months, and there is no domestic STS manufacturing alternative. The cost is a missing crane part, not a published crane price.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov

Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is container-terminal operating technology and ZPMC crane control at Los Angeles, Long Beach, Savannah, and Houston. Wave 1 indirect is the China-origin box, the China-string ship, and the gate, truck, and on-dock rail that stop when the terminal stops. CISA does not publish this order. It is a planning model. The opened landside day count is 10 days after first detecting the incident. That Australian case does not set the wave order.

cisa.gov selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov cyber.gov.au dpworld.com

Wave 2

Wave 2 direct is gateway trade finance. The physical terminal can be intact while documents and credit on the China and Hong Kong value row stop. This ordering is a planning inference.

portoflosangeles.org cisa.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 indirect is the customs broker and beneficial cargo owner, and domestic waterborne cargo. The broker loses a file after the ship has already stopped. Domestic tows are not the week-1 container-crane target. This ordering is a planning inference.

panynj.gov publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil cisa.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

80levelZPMC STS cranes

nearly 80 percent of the STS cranes used at U.S. ports

House Homeland and China Select port security report

27.2levelLos Angeles China and Hong Kong cargo value

Calculated from those two rounded billions, that partner is a calculated 27.2 percent of Port of Los Angeles cargo value

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

6.0levelLos Angeles Taiwan cargo value

a calculated 6.0 percent of Port of Los Angeles cargo value

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

Cost and time shock by time bucket

parts monthsmonths

18level12+ monthsABB components stored in the PRC

in the PRC for up to 18 months

House Homeland and China Select port security report

month teuTEU

782,249.00level0-3 monthsLos Angeles November total

November total volume was 782,249.00 TEU

Port of Los Angeles historical TEU statistics 2025

Downstream scale

vessel callsvessel calls

1,898levelLos Angeles all-cargo arrivals

vessel arrivals of 1,898

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

gateway teuTEU

10,297,352levelLos Angeles ranking

The fact sheet ranks the Port of Los Angeles at 10,297,352 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

9,649,724levelLong Beach ranking

The fact sheet ranks the Port of Long Beach at 9,649,724 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

8,698,526levelNew York and New Jersey ranking

the Port of New York and New Jersey at 8,698,526 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

5,545,557levelSavannah ranking

The fact sheet ranks the Port of Savannah at 5,545,557 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

4,464,931levelHouston ranking

The fact sheet ranks Port Houston at 4,464,931 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

origin teuTEU

1,176,064levelChina origin

China-origin volume of 1,176,064 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

323,293levelIndia origin

India-origin volume of 323,293 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

321,188levelVietnam origin

Vietnam-origin volume of 321,188 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

95,203levelHong Kong origin

Hong Kong-origin volume of 95,203 TEU

Port of New York and New Jersey at a glance 2024

workforcepeople

126,000levelLos Angeles economic-impact jobs

126,000 jobs in Los Angeles

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

portsports

361levelMaritime Transportation System

The maritime mode includes 361 ports

CISA Transportation Systems Sector

Operating prints

waterborne short tonsmillion short tons

744.5levelDomestic traffic

domestic traffic of 744.5 million short tons

USACE waterborne traffic fact card 2023

1,634.6levelForeign traffic

foreign traffic of 1,634.6 million short tons

USACE waterborne traffic fact card 2023

cranescranes

85levelLos Angeles ship-to-shore cranes

85 ship-to-shore container cranes

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

authority revenuemillion dollars

799levelLos Angeles operating revenue

operating revenue of 799 million dollars

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

What to do

Day 7

Split the book into the China and Hong Kong value row, the China-origin TEU row, and the allied rows. Do not merge Hong Kong into the New York and New Jersey China row. Confirm which STS cranes can be worked with parts already on the dock, against the 18-month PRC storage window.
portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov

Day 30

Compare the latest month's total TEU with November total volume was 782,249.00 TEU. Isolate crane control from the corporate network. ACSC principle 4 is to segment and segregate OT from all other networks. Treat a remote-access request on a ZPMC crane as a stopped change, on the committee finding.
portoflosangeles.org cyber.gov.au selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov

Day 90

Score Savannah and Newark as the fetched non-ZPMC STS examples, and score every other fleet as inside the unpublished count under the 80 percent share. Keep domestic tonnage on its own dashboard. Domestic traffic of 744.5 million short tons is not a container KPI.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil

What to watch

New York and New Jersey China-origin TEU. Act when China-origin TEU at New York and New Jersey prints below 588,032. That line is half of 1,176,064, and the half is calculated. The fact sheet does not publish this tripwire. It is a planning line against the printed 2024 origin row. Do not apply the line to the separate Hong Kong row of 95,203.
panynj.gov
Los Angeles monthly total TEU. Act when a month's total TEU at Los Angeles prints below 391,124.50. That line is half of 782,249.00, and the half is calculated. The port does not publish this tripwire. It is a planning line against the printed November total, not a claim that November was a war month.
portoflosangeles.org
Los Angeles China and Hong Kong cargo value, billion dollars. Act when China and Hong Kong cargo value prints below 41 billion dollars. That line is half of 82, and the half is calculated. The port does not publish this tripwire. It is a planning line against the printed partner row. The row is China and Hong Kong together, as the page prints it.
portoflosangeles.org
STS component wait, months. Act when a ZPMC or ABB crane component has been waiting longer than 18 months. Eighteen months is the printed PRC storage window. The committees do not publish an outage-day covenant. The 18-month line is a planning line against that window, not a new statistic.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov

By role

Terminal operators

Segment crane control from the corporate network before a remote-access change.
Inventory on-dock STS parts against the 18-month window without inventing a ZPMC crane count.
Keep a Konecranes or Liebherr fleet on a separate parts list from a ZPMC fleet.

cyber.gov.au selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov

Port authorities

Report China and Hong Kong value separately from Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan.
Report all-cargo arrivals separately from any China string the operations center can see.
Keep domestic and foreign waterborne tonnes off the container dashboard.

portoflosangeles.org publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil

Shippers and brokers

Reroute China-origin purchase orders off the stopped row.
Leave India and Vietnam origin files, and Taiwan value at Los Angeles, on the live book.

panynj.gov portoflosangeles.org

Trade-credit desks

Cut limits on the China and Hong Kong value row.
Do not cut the allied rows because the China row stopped.
Use the historical USD 250-300 million brief-period loss only as a carrier-stress shape.

portoflosangeles.org companiesmarketcap.com

Weekly checks

Los Angeles monthly total TEU The published short print is monthly, not weekly. November total volume was 782,249.00 TEU. A weekly series was not on the page. Use the month until the port publishes a week.
portoflosangeles.org
New York and New Jersey China-origin TEU China-origin volume of 1,176,064 TEU is the baseline that stops. The fact sheet is an annual origin table, so the weekly watch is whether the next origin file is still being cut. Hong Kong stays a separate watch item.
panynj.gov
STS crane availability and remote-access changes The OEM share is nearly 80 percent and the parts window is up to 18 months. A weekly crane-availability percent is not printed. The operating watch is cranes out of service and any new remote-access request.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov
All-cargo vessel arrivals Vessel arrivals of 1,898 are the Los Angeles all-cargo baseline. They are not China calls. A drop that is only the China string will not equal a drop in this total.
portoflosangeles.org

What is not known

Observed baselines are the Los Angeles facts page, the Los Angeles monthly TEU table, the New York and New Jersey fact sheet, the House port-security report, the CISA transportation-sector page, the ACSC OT principles, the Maersk 2017 annual report, and the USACE waterborne fact card. Wave order, the ability of allied strings to absorb China volume, and any 2027 dollar path are inferences.
portoflosangeles.org cisa.gov companiesmarketcap.com
Calculated shares use two figures on the Los Angeles value table and are labeled. 27.2 percent is calculated from the page's already rounded billions of 82 and 301, at one decimal, and is not a more precise ratio. Taiwan uses 18 and 301 to give 6.0 percent. Vietnam uses 48 and 301 to give 15.9 percent. Japan uses 45 and 301 to give 15.0 percent. South Korea uses 21 and 301 to give 7.0 percent. The billions are already rounded on the page. Planning halves use 1,176,064 divided by 2, which is 588,032, and 782,249.00 divided by 2, which is 391,124.50, and 82 divided by 2, which is 41.
portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov portoflosangeles.org
Unpublished primaries that keep several evidence categories from a finished count. The MARAD Study of Cybersecurity and National Security Threats returned HTTP 403, so a national ZPMC crane count is unpublished. The Port of Long Beach facts page returned HTTP 403, so Long Beach China-origin TEU and China calls are unpublished. The Maersk interim investor page returned HTTP 403, so a day or week count for the NotPetya loss is unpublished. The opened day count is the Australian clearance, 10 days after first detecting the incident, and it is not a NotPetya day count. Los Angeles does not split 85 ship-to-shore container cranes by OEM and does not split arrivals or TEU by China. New York and New Jersey does not print an origin-share denominator. A Taiwan crane or terminal-equipment share is unpublished. A crane share may stay unpublished. Taiwan cargo value at Los Angeles stays labeled as cargo value, not a crane share. The Taiwan figures that are published are cargo value at Los Angeles and absence from the East Coast top-ten origin list.
selectcommitteeontheccp.house.gov portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov companiesmarketcap.com dpworld.com
China and Hong Kong are one partner on the Los Angeles value table and two rows on the New York and New Jersey origin table. This report does not merge the East Coast rows. Northeast Asia at 59 percent is not described as cargo that continues. The jobs figure of 126,000 jobs in Los Angeles is an economic-impact result. The fact card's domestic total includes local and intra-territory traffic not shown in the coastwise, lakewise, and internal columns.
portoflosangeles.org panynj.gov publibrary.sec.usace.army.mil

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Los Angeles container terminals	China and Hong Kong cargo value stops while Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan cargo can still move.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Port of Los Angeles facts; CISA maritime mode
Long Beach container terminals	The ranked Long Beach volume stays on the fact sheet, and a China-origin box count for that port is unpublished.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	PANYNJ ranking; Los Angeles San Pedro Bay share
New York and New Jersey China-origin boxes	China-origin import boxes stop, and the separate Hong Kong row is not folded into that stop.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	PANYNJ country-of-origin table
Savannah container terminals	Savannah keeps a ranked East Coast volume on an exclusive Konecranes fleet rather than on the ZPMC spare-parts line.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	PANYNJ ranking; House Konecranes finding
Port Houston container terminals	Gulf container volume stays on the fact-sheet ranking, and a China-origin split for Houston is unpublished.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	PANYNJ ranking
ZPMC ship-to-shore cranes	Spare parts and remote-access paths for the dominant STS supplier become the operating constraint.	0-3 months and 12+ months	Wave 1 (direct)	House port-security report; Los Angeles crane list
China-string marine carriers	China vessel calls drop out of the rotation while allied and other-Asia ships can still berth.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Los Angeles arrivals; PANYNJ origins; Maersk 2017
Gate, truck, and on-dock rail	Drayage and on-dock rail lose the China box and stop when the terminal system stops.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Los Angeles rail; PANYNJ rail lifts; ACSC OT
Gateway trade finance	Lenders reprice the China and Hong Kong cargo-value book and leave the allied value book in place.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	Los Angeles cargo value
Customs brokers and beneficial cargo owners	Import files for China-origin goods stop reaching the broker and the cargo owner.	1-6 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	PANYNJ China-origin TEU; Los Angeles commodities
Domestic waterborne cargo	Coastwise, lakewise, and internal cargo keeps moving without a Chinese shipper.	0-3 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	USACE fact card; CISA waterways

Ports and Maritime — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

What happens

Why U.S. ports are hit, and what keeps moving

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and time shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

Terminal operators

Port authorities

Shippers and brokers

Trade-credit desks

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources