A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Hospitality & Tourism — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

The United States is a large domestic hotel market, and China inbound is one international slice. On the NTTO April 2026 table, 2025 China arrivals were 1,562 thousand inside total international arrivals of 68,288 thousand. Calculated from those two actuals, the China share is 2.3 percent. The November 2026 fast facts print the same year as China 1.56 million, tenth, inside a total of 68.29 million. AHLA says domestic leisure travel remains the largest component of U.S. travel activity. Accommodation employment was still 1,920.4 thousand in October 2026, preliminary and seasonally adjusted.
trade.gov trade.gov ahla.com data.bls.gov
China ranks higher in travel-export dollars than in arrivals, and that dollar line is not room revenue. Fast facts put 2025 international spending in the United States at $248.8 billion and China at $25.2 billion, second behind Mexico. The page footnote defines the total as travel for all purposes plus air passenger transportation. Calculated from $25.2 billion and $248.8 billion, the export share is 10.1 percent. Calculated from $25.2 billion and the rounded 1.56 million visitors on the same page, the ratio is 16,154 dollars per visitor. That ratio includes air passenger transportation. It is not an average daily rate.
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The guest and the booking are the operating break, not a lost Chinese airline seat. On 12 September 2023 MGM identified a cybersecurity issue affecting certain U.S. systems and shut those systems down. The 8-K estimates a negative impact in September of approximately $100 million to Adjusted Property EBITDAR for Las Vegas Strip Resorts and Regional Operations, and less than $10 million of one-time expenses. September occupancy was 88 percent, compared with 93 percent in the prior-year period, mostly because bookings were unavailable on the website and mobile applications. Calculated from 93 and 88, the occupancy decline is 5.4 percent.
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Taiwan is a named visitor origin, and it is outside the 2025 top tier. The commercial guide prints 398,813 Taiwan travelers to the United States in 2024. The dollar column on that table includes passenger air transportation, and the 2024 dollar cell is to be announced, so no 2024 Taiwan dollar figure is used. In 2023, 28.2 percent of Taiwanese tourists were on a vacation or holiday, 34.2 percent were visiting friends and relatives, 21.4 percent were doing business, and 8.6 percent were attending conferences. The average Taiwan visitor spent fourteen nights, and more than 80 percent were repeat travelers. Taiwan is not among the top 12 markets that were 77.2 percent of 2025 arrivals, and it is not in the fast-facts top 10. A 2025 annual Taiwan arrival total was not on those pages.
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A monthly arrival print shows the international book still moving. The NTTO news page says July 2026 international visitor arrivals totaled 6,248,242, a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to 2025. The one-month room-price analog is not that year-ago arrival change. Preliminary accommodation producer prices were 211.199 in July 2026 and 204.130 in August 2026. Calculated from those two prints, the one-month decline is 3.3 percent.
trade.gov data.bls.gov

What stops at the border, what the domestic guest still buys, and what a booking outage does

A China trade and travel stop removes the 2025 China arrival book of 1,562 thousand and the fast-facts export line of $25.2 billion. That export line includes air passenger transportation and all purposes. It does not remove domestic leisure, which AHLA calls the largest component of U.S. travel activity, and it does not remove the other top origins. Fast facts rank Mexico 17.98 million, Canada 16.02 million, the United Kingdom 4.06 million, India 2.06 million, and Japan 1.97 million.
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The guest who still arrives has a measured booking window. In the 2025 SIAT, the average overseas visitor decided 104 days ahead, made an airline reservation 79 days prior, stayed 16.9 nights, and spent $1,829 in the United States. The United Kingdom was the top overseas source at 4.1 million. China was not in that top five. The airline-reservation lead time is a demand-timing constraint, not a hotel inventory day.
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A quarter can move without a China stop. Third-quarter 2025 international air arrivals were 12.3 million, of which 9.6 million were overseas, and the count decreased 5.7 percent from the third quarter of 2024. China was fifth among overseas markets that quarter at 491,000. The top five overseas markets were 35 percent of overseas visitation.
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Taiwan's named exposure is the 2024 traveler count of 398,813 and the 2023 trip mix, not a 2025 share. A foundry share is not used. The 2024 contribution cell that would have been in dollars is marked to be announced, and earlier dollar cells include passenger air transportation, so they are not room revenue.
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The domestic cash break in the first days is a property-management and booking outage on the MGM record, not the loss of the China slice. Systems were shut. Guest-facing systems were later described as virtually all restored, with remaining systems expected in the coming days. The measured commercial result is approximately $100 million of Adjusted Property EBITDAR and September occupancy of 88 percent.
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A conflict-wave cyber path is an inference on top of the Volt Typhoon page. The page says actors seek to pre-position for disruptive or destructive activity against U.S. critical infrastructure in a major crisis or conflict. Lodging sits in the commercial-facilities sector. Assigning booking engines to wave 1 and independent motels to wave 3 is the planning model, not a sentence on the advisory page.
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How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon arrival print: July 2026 international visitor arrivals totaled 6,248,242, a decrease of 0.1 percent compared to 2025. The level is the monthly print. The 0.1 percent change is not the only figure in this band.
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Short-horizon price analog: preliminary accommodation prices were 211.199 in July 2026 and 204.130 in August 2026. Calculated from those two prints, the one-month decline is 3.3 percent. The named hotel analog in the same band is September occupancy of 88 percent versus 93 percent, a calculated occupancy decline of 5.4 percent, and approximately $100 million of Adjusted Property EBITDAR.
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Short-horizon booking analog: Omni shut systems on 29 March 2024 and restored its systems a week later on 8 April. The same outage sat on a chain that owns 50 hotels and resorts. The week is the printed duration. It is not a day count calculated from the two dates, and it is not a weekly occupancy series.
techcrunch.com bleepingcomputer.com

1–6 months

Quarter analog: international air arrivals decreased 5.7 percent in the third quarter of 2025 from the third quarter of 2024. China was 491,000 of the overseas air arrivals that quarter. The average overseas stay of 16.9 nights is the length of a lost trip inside that quarter.
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12+ months

Long-horizon profit band: gross operating profit per available room was roughly 90 percent of 2019 levels. Taxes were $85.1 billion in 2025. The non-war China path on the NTTO table reaches 2,245 thousand arrivals in 2030. That path is not this scenario.
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Wave 1

Wave 1 is the guest-facing stack inside lodging: property-management systems, brand websites and mobile booking apps, and front-desk payments. The MGM shutdown is the dollar path, approximately $100 million in one month. The Omni shutdown is the duration path, a week, on a chain of 50 hotels and resorts. Domestic leisure hotels are Wave 1 indirect because they lose the night when that stack is down, not because China trade stops. CISA lists lodging in commercial facilities. This ordering is a planning inference on top of the Volt Typhoon pre-positioning description.

d18rn0p25nwr6d.cloudfront.net techcrunch.com bleepingcomputer.com cisa.gov cisa.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 is the enterprise booking layer off the property: online travel agencies as a direct target, and the China-inbound desk, group hotels, and attractions as indirect users of those channels. The physical hotel can be open while the channel cannot sell it. This ordering is a planning inference.

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Wave 3

Wave 3 is the distributed set: independent lodging as a direct target, and inbound tourism marketers as an indirect loss of the China campaign. The establishment universe on the opened page is 78,789. A size split of that universe was not published. This ordering is a planning inference.

bls.gov cisa.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

2.3levelChina arrival share

the China share is 2.3 percent

NTTO International Visitor Forecast, April 2026

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

3.3decline0-3 monthsone-month accommodation PPI

the one-month decline is 3.3 percent.

BLS accommodation producer price index

5.7decline1-6 monthsquarterly air arrivals

decreased 5.7 percent

NTTO SIAT third quarter 2025

90level12+ monthsGOPPAR versus 2019

roughly 90 percent

AHLA 2026 State of the Industry news release

Downstream scale

workforcethousand people

1,920.4levelaccommodation employment

preliminary employment was 1,920.4 thousand

BLS accommodation employment, CES7072100001

Operating prints

daysdays

79levelairline reservation lead time

made an airline reservation 79 days prior

NTTO 2025 Survey of International Air Travelers

What to do

Day 7

Separate in-house groups into China-named, Taiwan-named, and everyone else. The China baseline is 1,562 thousand arrivals in 2025. The Taiwan baseline that is actually printed is 398,813 travelers in 2024.
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Prove that a reservation can be taken if the brand website and the property-management system are both down. The MGM occupancy loss was the website and the mobile app. Shutting systems also stopped the electronic payment path.
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Day 30

Watch the monthly international arrival print against 6,248,242, the July 2026 level, and watch China only if NTTO publishes a country month. The annual China baseline remains 1,562 thousand.
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Watch the accommodation producer price against the one-month analog of 3.3 percent. July 2026 was 211.199 and August 2026 was 204.130, both preliminary.
data.bls.gov

Day 90

Re-cut staffing against domestic leisure and the non-China origins, not against a return of the China export line. AHLA still calls domestic leisure the largest component. GOPPAR was roughly 90 percent of 2019 levels, so the long book is cost, not a China recovery.
ahla.com
Keep Taiwan as its own file. Do not fold it into an Asia residual. The 2025 annual total was unpublished on the top-12 and top-10 pages. The usable history is 398,813 in 2024 and a fourteen-night stay in the 2023 description.
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What to watch

Accommodation producer price index, monthly level. Act when the monthly accommodation producer price index prints below 204.130. The 204.130 line is the August 2026 preliminary print. It is a planning line. BLS does not publish this tripwire. The 3.3 percent move from 211.199 is calculated and is not the line. The baseline is this monthly index, not a weekly occupancy series.
data.bls.gov
Monthly international visitor arrivals. Act when monthly international visitor arrivals print below 6,248,242. That figure is the July 2026 release. It is a planning line at the latest opened month, not an NTTO minimum.
trade.gov
Property monthly occupancy. Act when a property's monthly occupancy prints below 88 percent. The 88 percent line is the MGM September 2023 print. It is a planning line. MGM does not publish it as a covenant. CoStar weekly U.S. hotel occupancy returned HTTP 403, so this line sits on that September month, not on a weekly series.
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China air arrivals, quarterly. Act when a quarterly China air-arrival print falls below 491,000. The 491,000 line is the third quarter of 2025. It is a planning line. NTTO does not publish a minimum China arrival rate. The baseline is that quarter, not a weekly series and not a calculated half of the annual total.
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By role

Hotel owners and operators

Staff against domestic leisure and non-China origins, using 1,920.4 thousand jobs as the industry base that is still employed.
Keep a sell path that does not require the brand website. The MGM month lost occupancy when the website and the app were unavailable.
Separate China groups from the rest of the house before week one.

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Tour operators and attractions

Reprice China-named departures to zero and keep the $1,829 overseas in-country spend as the trip value for origins that still fly.
Do not treat a foundry headline as a ticket shortage. The Taiwan exposure that was fetched is 398,813 travelers in 2024.

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Inbound-tourism bodies

Shift paid demand generation off China and onto the fast-facts origins that remain: Mexico, Canada, the United Kingdom, India, and Japan.
Report China as 1,562 thousand arrivals and as a $25.2 billion export line that includes airfare, not as hotel revenue.