A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
The United States keeps producing several bulk chemicals when China trade stops. Domestic soda ash production was valued at an estimated 2.5 billion dollars, and the quantity produced was an estimated 12 million tons.
The binding China exposure is specific intermediates and mineral chemicals, not the bulk acid and alkali system. China supplied 70 percent of U.S. rare-earth compound and metal imports.
China supplied 43 percent of U.S. natural-graphite imports. Net import reliance for natural graphite was 100 percent.
Mexico supplied 62 percent of U.S. fluorspar imports. China, including Hong Kong, was 8 percent. Acid-grade fluorspar feeds anhydrous hydrogen fluoride in Louisiana and Texas.
A short outage of the Gulf system is a separate shock from a China trade stop. U.S. ethylene capacity still offline was 75 percent.
The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent. That calculation uses the printed January 2021 index of 252.9 and the printed February 2021 index of 268.9 on the BLS industrial-chemicals series.
Past the plant, basic chemical manufacturing employed 157.4 thousand people. Chemical merchant wholesalers employed 153.5 thousand people. Chemical merchant wholesalers counted 18,680 establishments.
The chemical sector distributes products to more than 750,000 end users. The same page says the sector converts raw materials into more than 70,000 products and that several hundred thousand U.S. chemical facilities manufacture, store, transport, or deliver chemicals.
U.S. railroads moved 33,599 chemical carloads in the reported week. The week ended 7 December 2024. The count excludes U.S. operations of CPKC, CN and GMXT.
A China trade stop removes the China share of a short list of chemical and mineral-chemical imports. It does not remove domestic soda ash, domestic sulfur, domestic phosphate rock, or domestic titanium dioxide pigment. China supplied 70 percent of U.S. rare-earth compound and metal imports. The 2024 value of those compound and metal imports was 170 million dollars, against 45,000 tons of domestic rare-earth oxide in mineral concentrates valued at 260 million dollars. The mine keeps producing concentrate. The separated compounds and metals are the tight step. Net import reliance for compounds and metals was 80 percent in the 2024 estimate.
pubs.usgs.govpubs.usgs.govpubs.usgs.govpubs.usgs.govpubs.usgs.gov
Natural graphite does not have a domestic mine stream in the 2024 estimate. Imports were an estimated 60,000 tons. China supplied 43 percent of U.S. natural-graphite imports. China produced an estimated 78 percent of world natural-graphite production in 2024. Canada, Mexico, and Mozambique each supplied 13 percent of U.S. imports and can still ship. The tariff rate on natural graphite from China rises from 0 percent to 25 percent beginning in 2026.
Antimony oxide is already in a ban regime. China, including Hong Kong, supplied 76 percent of U.S. antimony oxide imports in 2020-23 and 63 percent of total antimony metal and oxide. In December 2024, China banned all exports of antimony to the United States. Secondary antimony was valued at about 73 million dollars, and net import reliance was 85 percent.
Magnesium compounds are a split book. U.S. shipments excluding magnesium chloride were estimated at 450 million dollars, production was 430 thousand metric tons of magnesium oxide content, and imports were 520 thousand metric tons. Net import reliance was 52 percent. China, including Hong Kong, supplied 73 percent of caustic-calcined magnesia, 94 percent of crude magnesite, 70 percent of dead-burned and fused magnesia, and 61 percent of total magnesium-compound imports. Canada supplied 21 percent of caustic-calcined magnesia and can still ship that slice.
Fluorspar for hydrogen fluoride keeps a non-China route. Mexico supplied 62 percent of U.S. fluorspar imports. U.S. consumption was satisfied by imports, and 2024 estimated total fluorspar imports were 440 thousand metric tons. Net import reliance was 100 percent.
Bulk acids, alkalis, and pigment keep non-China routes. Elemental sulfur imports were 79 percent from Canada, and U.S. net import reliance for sulfur was 7 percent. Phosphate-rock imports were 98 percent from Peru and 2 percent from Morocco, and net import reliance was 13 percent. Potash imports were 79 percent from Canada, and net import reliance was 93 percent. Titanium dioxide pigment imports were 44 percent from Canada and 12 percent from China, and U.S. pigment net import reliance is printed as E, a net exporter. Pigment production was 850,000 metric tons, valued at an estimated 3 billion dollars.
Silicon metal imports are not a named China flow in the 2020-23 source list. Named silicon-metal sources were Brazil 38 percent, Canada 28 percent, Norway 13 percent, and Australia 5 percent. Ferrosilicon sources were Russia 37 percent, Brazil 14 percent, Canada 13 percent, and Malaysia 9 percent. The same chapter states that China accounted almost 80 percent of total global estimated production of silicon materials in 2024. Domestic production was withheld. A world-production share is not a U.S. import share.
Taiwan export limits are a real chemical fact at Taiwan's border and an unmeasured fact at the U.S. plant gate. Taiwan's 2025 chemical exports were 18.3 billion dollars, 2.8 percent of all Taiwan exports, and the year-on-year change was a decline of 0.2 percent. AmCham, citing Grand View, says Taiwan accounted for 23.9 percent of the global semiconductor chemicals market in 2024 and is expected to lead in 2030 with 7.69 billion dollars. Neither figure is a U.S. import share of photoresist, electronic-grade acid, or any other named chemical.
A Gulf weather outage shows how fast domestic olefins stop even when foreign trade is open. Days after the 14 February 2021 storm, 75 percent of U.S. ethylene capacity was still offline, as was 70 percent of polypropylene and 40 percent of propylene. More than 80 percent of U.S. olefins capacity was immediately offline. By mid-March only 60 percent of olefins capacity was back. Polyethylene operating rates fell 33 percent. Polypropylene operating rates fell 36 percent.
Cyber disruption is an infrastructure wave before it is a small-distributor wave. The 7 February 2024 advisory says Volt Typhoon actors are seeking to pre-position on IT networks for disruptive or destructive activity against U.S. critical infrastructure in a major crisis or conflict. The chemical sector is a named critical-infrastructure sector.
The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent. The inputs are the printed January 2021 index of 252.9 and the printed February 2021 index of 268.9. A year-over-year peak is not this band.
U.S. ethylene capacity still offline was 75 percent. Polyethylene operating rates fell 33 percent. Polypropylene operating rates fell 36 percent. More than 80 percent of U.S. olefins capacity was immediately offline.
The July-to-November antimony move is calculated at 96.4 percent. The June-to-June industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 19.7 percent. The index peak of 379.705 is the July 2022 level, not a one-month change.
Sulfur's average unit value was 50.00 dollars per metric ton in the 2024 estimate, after 177.8 dollars per metric ton in 2022. The graphite tariff step to 25 percent begins in 2026.
Wave 1 is critical infrastructure. In this industry that is basic chemical plants, bulk chemical storage, and chemical rail carriers. The Volt Typhoon advisory describes pre-positioning for disruptive or destructive activity against U.S. critical infrastructure in a major crisis or conflict.
Wave 2 is enterprise systems at chemical merchant wholesalers and at the chemical wholesale sales book, both tagged direct, and feedstock loss at industrial chemical buyers, tagged indirect. The Houston chemical container gate is Wave 1 indirect because the TEU stops with the plant, the rail, or the terminal.
Wave 3 is the small chemical distributor. The product shortage in antimony oxide and graphite can arrive from trade before any cyber event. The wave tag is the planning model for a later direct hit on smaller firms.
origin sharepercent
China supplied 70 percent of U.S. rare-earth compound and metal imports.
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, Rare EarthsChina supplied 43 percent of U.S. natural-graphite imports.
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, GraphiteMexico supplied 62 percent of U.S. fluorspar imports.
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, Fluorsparprice changepercent
The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent.
BLS PPI WPU061, industrial chemicalsThe July-to-November antimony move is calculated at 96.4 percent.
USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2025, Antimonyworkforce thousandsthousand people
Basic chemical manufacturing employed 157.4 thousand people.
BLS CES basic chemical manufacturing employmentChemical merchant wholesalers employed 153.5 thousand people.
BLS CES chemical merchant wholesaler employmentsitesestablishments
Chemical merchant wholesalers counted 18,680 establishments.
BLS QCEW chemical merchant wholesaler establishmentsend usersend users
The chemical sector distributes products to more than 750,000 end users.
CISA Chemical Sectorwholesale salesthousand dollars
chemical and allied products merchant wholesaler sales of 285,616,294 thousand dollars
Census AIES via FREDhouston chemical teuTEU
Chemicals And Minerals at 252,204 TEU
Port Houston container commodity tableoutage percentpercent
U.S. ethylene capacity still offline was 75 percent.
Chemistry World, Gulf Coast stormPolyethylene operating rates fell 33 percent.
Hydrocarbon Processing, Texas deep freezecarloadscarloads
U.S. railroads moved 33,599 chemical carloads in the reported week.
AAR Weekly Railroad TrafficSeparate continuing domestic streams from China-linked SKUs. Soda ash, sulfur, phosphate rock, and titanium dioxide pigment stay on the domestic or non-China list. Rare-earth compounds, natural graphite, antimony oxide, and China-origin magnesium compounds go on the stop list.
Read the latest industrial-chemicals PPI against the February 2021 one-month move. The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent.
Confirm Mexico, Canada, and Peru nominations for fluorspar, elemental sulfur, potash, pigment, and phosphate rock. Mexico supplied 62 percent of U.S. fluorspar imports. Elemental sulfur imports were 79 percent from Canada.
Watch weekly chemical carloads against the printed week. U.S. railroads moved 33,599 chemical carloads in the reported week.
Qualify non-China cover for graphite and rare-earth compounds out to a quarter. China supplied 43 percent of U.S. natural-graphite imports, and Canada, Mexico, and Mozambique each supplied 13 percent. That 13 percent slice is the printed alternate, not a new mine.
Industrial-chemicals PPI one-month change. Act when the industrial-chemicals PPI posts a one-month increase of 6.3 percent or more. The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent from the printed indexes 252.9 and 268.9. The 6.3 percent line is that month's calculated move, a planning line, not a BLS covenant.
Ethylene capacity offline. Act when a Gulf complex reports ethylene capacity offline at 75 percent or more. U.S. ethylene capacity still offline was 75 percent days after 14 February 2021. The 75 percent line is that print, a planning line, not a plant covenant.
Weekly chemical carloads. Act when weekly U.S. chemical carloads print below 33,599. U.S. railroads moved 33,599 chemical carloads in the reported week, excluding U.S. operations of CPKC, CN and GMXT. The 33,599 line is that week's print, a planning line, not an AAR covenant.
Antimony metal price and export ban. Act when the antimony metal price is up 96.4 percent or more from a July base inside four months, or when a seller confirms the December 2024 ban still blocks U.S. shipments. The July-to-November antimony move is calculated at 96.4 percent from 8.91 dollars per pound and 17.50 dollars per pound. The 96.4 percent line is that calculated move, a planning line, not a contract covenant.
Keep soda ash, sulfur, phosphate, and pigment customers supplied from the domestic book.
Treat a 75 percent ethylene outage print as the trigger to allocate, using the 2021 analog.
Put rare-earth compounds, graphite, antimony oxide, and China-origin magnesia on a separate buy list.
Split inventory between domestic bulk and China-linked specialties.
Prepare a manual order path for the Wave 2 direct tag on wholesaler systems.
Name Mexico, Canada, and Peru on the continuing lanes.
Do not halt purchases of domestic pigment, soda ash, or sulfuric-acid derivatives because a China specialty stops.
Cover graphite and rare-earth compounds before the quarter, using the printed non-China shares as the ceiling on quick substitution.
Track chemical carloads against 33,599 in the comparable week.
Treat rail and bulk storage as Wave 1 direct in the planning model.
Size specialty-chemical collateral off the 170 million dollar rare-earth compound import value and the 73 million dollar secondary antimony value, not off NAICS 325.
Size Gulf olefins business interruption off the 75 percent ethylene outage and the 33 percent polyethylene operating-rate drop.
Industrial-chemicals PPI, WPU061, one-month change The February 2021 one-month move is the short-horizon price analog a buyer can compare with a live index.
U.S. chemical carloads Week 49 of 2024 printed 33,599 chemical carloads, excluding U.S. operations of CPKC, CN and GMXT.
Share of ethylene capacity reported offline The Uri print was 75 percent of U.S. ethylene capacity still offline days after 14 February 2021.
Offer cover for antimony oxide, natural graphite, and rare-earth compounds Those are the printed China-majority or banned flows. Antimony exports to the United States were banned in December 2024.
Observed baselines and scenario inference are separate. Import shares, production tons, employment, carloads, and the 2021 outage percents are baselines. The 2027 path and the wave tags are inference.
The one-month industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 6.3 percent. The June-to-June industrial-chemicals move is calculated at 19.7 percent. The July-to-November antimony move is calculated at 96.4 percent. The chemical share of the reported week's carloads is calculated at 14.9 percent. Each calculation uses two numbers printed on the cited page. No other figure in this note is a calculation.
Decision-changing limit: organic-chemical import dollars by partner are not in this note. The UN Comtrade preview API returned HTTP 403, quota exceeded, on the request for U.S. HS 29 imports. HS 29 also mixes pharmaceutical trade, so it would not have been a clean basic-chemical share even if the quota had allowed the row. NAICS 325 employment of 899.4 thousand and 25,257 establishments include pharmaceuticals.
Decision-changing limit: no opened page prints a U.S. import ton or dollar for a named Taiwan process chemical. Taiwan chemical exports of 18.3 billion dollars and the 23.9 percent global semiconductor-chemicals revenue share are the printed Taiwan facts. The 7.69 billion dollars is a 2030 expectation.
Decision-changing limit: no opened page prints a count of U.S. chemical tank terminals or days of cover for merchant wholesalers. The printed merchant figure is sales, not days. Census, via the FRED AIES series, prints chemical and allied products merchant wholesaler sales of 285,616,294 thousand dollars. No cash-buffer days are invented from that line. Port Houston lists Chemicals And Minerals at 252,204 TEU and says the totals are estimated, not exact. That TEU line is not a tank-terminal census. CISA's several hundred thousand facilities include storage, and soda ash producer stocks were an estimated 300 thousand metric tons. China import footnotes on rare earths, graphite, antimony, fluorspar, and magnesium compounds include Hong Kong.
cisa.govpubs.usgs.govpubs.usgs.govfred.stlouisfed.orgporthouston.com
Oil and gas production and pharmaceuticals are outside this industry note. Sulfur recovered at U.S. operations is included only as a chemical feedstock with a 7 percent net import reliance. Potash is included only as a chemical mineral that Canada keeps shipping.
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Basic chemical plants | Gulf olefins can stop in days, while soda ash, sulfur, phosphate, and pigment keep a domestic book. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | Chemistry World; USGS soda ash; CISA chemical sector |
| Bulk chemical storage | Storage and in-plant tanks follow the outage and the import ban, and no terminal census was printed. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | CISA chemical sector; USGS soda ash |
| Chemical rail carriers | Chemical carloads keep domestic bulk moving and show a weekly number a shipper can watch. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | AAR Week 49 2024 |
| Chemical merchant wholesalers | Distributor order systems and working capital take the China-linked SKUs while domestic bulk still has a producer. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | BLS NAICS 4246; USGS magnesium compounds |
| Chemical wholesale sales book | Merchant sales are a printed dollar line, and cash-buffer days for those merchants stay unpublished. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | Census AIES via FRED, NAICS 4246 sales |
| Houston chemical container gate | Containerized chemicals and minerals have an estimated Houston export volume, and a tank-terminal census stays unpublished. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | Port Houston container commodity table, estimated PIERS TEU |
| Industrial chemical buyers | End users lose specific intermediates and keep buying domestic soda ash, sulfur derivatives, phosphate derivatives, and pigment. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | CISA chemical sector; USGS titanium; USGS sulfur |
| Small chemical distributors | Thin specialty lines, led by antimony oxide and graphite, cannot be replaced from a printed domestic stock. | 0-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | USGS antimony; USGS graphite |