A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
A China trade stop does not starve U.S. polyethylene. In 2024 the United States exported 16,469,221.61 thousand U.S. dollars of polymers of ethylene and imported 4,348,722.54 thousand. WITS labels the column Trade Value 1000USD. China was a customer, not the feedstock.
Polyethylene exports to China were 2,577,631.00 thousand U.S. dollars. The calculated China share of U.S. polyethylene exports was 15.7 percent. Mexico and Canada remain export customers if only China stops.
The calculated Canada share of U.S. polyethylene imports was 80.4 percent. The calculated China share of those polyethylene imports was 1.2 percent. Canada keeps shipping polyethylene.
The binding China loss for converters is finished packaging, not resin. China supplied 2,309,013.86 thousand U.S. dollars of plastic packing articles. The calculated China share of U.S. plastic packing-article imports was 23.0 percent. Canada and Mexico are each a larger or similar source and keep shipping.
The calculated China share of U.S. plastics imports was 25.9 percent. That chapter total mixes resin and articles. It is not the polyethylene share.
The Plastics Industry Association reported a 23.7 billion dollar U.S. resin trade surplus in 2024 and a 4.3 billion dollar resin surplus with China. The same release said China was the largest source of the industry trade deficit, 12.4 billion dollars. Resin sellers lose a customer. Article buyers lose a supplier. Those are different cash lines, and the association perimeter includes resin, products, machinery, and molds, which is wider than HS chapter 39.
The calculated one-month resin-price increase was 8.8 percent. That is the 0-3 month speed analog, from the resin index in February 2021 to March 2021. It is a Gulf outage analog, not a China-customer analog. The calculated year-over-year resin-price increase was 45.9 percent. That later peak is not the 0-3 month band.
Plastics product manufacturing had 12,224 establishments. Plastics product manufacturing employed 588,084 people. Resin manufacturing employed 60,857 people. Those QCEW rows are not the association's claim of over one million workers in a 551 billion dollar industry. The perimeters differ, and wages are not sales.
Gulf polyethylene keeps moving to buyers other than China. Losing the China export line removes the calculated 15.7 percent of polyethylene export value. It leaves the domestic plant long a customer, not short a monomer, unless a separate Gulf outage hits.
Canada keeps shipping the polyethylene the United States does import. Korea shipped 123,470.34 thousand U.S. dollars of polyethylene imports, a disclosed residual behind Canada and ahead of China. Other Asia, nes shipped 8,667.33 thousand U.S. dollars. The calculated Other Asia, nes share of polyethylene imports was 0.2 percent.
Polypropylene imports were 1,450,010.62 thousand U.S. dollars. Canada was 466,255.66, Korea 281,877.57, Singapore 141,581.86, and China 15,248.52. The calculated shares are 32.2 percent Canada, 19.4 percent Korea, 9.8 percent Singapore, and 1.1 percent China. Other Asia, nes was 19,892.00 thousand U.S. dollars, a calculated 1.4 percent. Canada, Korea, and Singapore keep shipping polypropylene. Polypropylene exports were 4,262,211.72 thousand U.S. dollars, of which Mexico was 1,939,212.91 and Canada 946,970.10 and China 157,871.25. The calculated export shares are 45.5 percent Mexico, 22.2 percent Canada, and 3.7 percent China.
Finished packing articles are the China cut. World imports of HS 3923 were 10,039,349.05 thousand U.S. dollars and 2,236,070,000 kilograms. Canada was 2,321,617.23 thousand and 522,879,000 kilograms. China was 2,309,013.86 thousand and 501,994,000 kilograms. Mexico was 1,641,922.65 thousand and 371,512,000 kilograms. Other Asia, nes was 556,490.76 thousand. Vietnam was 433,110.69 thousand. Thailand was 364,254.73 thousand. The calculated value shares are 23.1 percent Canada, 23.0 percent China, 16.4 percent Mexico, 5.5 percent Other Asia, nes, and 4.3 percent Vietnam. Canada, Mexico, Vietnam, and Thailand keep shipping packing articles.
Film and sheet stay mostly North American. HS 3920 imports were 6,538,016.54 thousand U.S. dollars. Canada was 1,694,928.57, Mexico 841,080.82, China 413,589.14, and Other Asia, nes 194,097.07. The calculated Canada share of U.S. plastic film and sheet imports was 25.9 percent. The calculated Mexico share was 12.9 percent. The calculated China share was 6.3 percent. The calculated Other Asia, nes share was 3.0 percent. Canada and Mexico keep shipping film.
Self-adhesive sheet is a thinner specialty where China is larger than in film. HS 3919 imports were 1,824,928.53 thousand U.S. dollars. China was 308,960.72, Canada 251,998.90, Mexico 231,163.25, and Other Asia, nes 191,489.90. The calculated China share was 16.9 percent. The calculated Other Asia, nes share was 10.5 percent. Canada and Mexico still keep shipping.
New machines from China stop, and Germany remains the largest source. HS 8477 imports were 3,671,871.05 thousand U.S. dollars. Germany was 1,007,774.13, Canada 455,855.79, China 370,433.70, Japan 296,154.27, and Other Asia, nes 62,520.36. The calculated Germany share of U.S. plastics-machinery imports was 27.4 percent. The calculated China share of U.S. plastics-machinery imports was 10.1 percent. The calculated Canada share was 12.4 percent. The calculated Other Asia, nes share was 1.7 percent. Germany, Canada, and Japan keep shipping machines.
The March 2025 PLASTICS note, using preliminary 2024 data, said U.S. plastics-industry imports from China were 18.2 billion dollars and exports to China were 7.3 billion dollars in both 2023 and 2024. The October 2025 release also prints exports to China of 7.3 billion dollars and a larger industry deficit with China of 12.4 billion dollars. The two China-deficit figures are not reconciled here. Both perimeters are the association's four categories, not the WITS HS 39 total.
Short-horizon analog, one month: the calculated one-month resin-price increase was 8.8 percent. The February index level was 300.4. The March index level was 326.7. This is the Gulf outage speed, not a China-trade speed.
Short-horizon analog, printed by BLS rather than calculated: prices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 4.0 percent in March. The release names plastic resins and materials among the indexes that moved higher and does not give them this percent.
Accumulated analog, not the 90-day print: the calculated year-over-year resin-price increase was 45.9 percent. The July 2020 index was 254.5 and the July 2021 index was 371.402.
Long-tail analog: the calculated decline in the resin index was 14.3 percent. The index did not remain at the 2021 peak through December 2024.
Wave 1 is critical infrastructure. In this industry that is Gulf energy and feedstock, and ports. Inland trucking is Wave 1 indirect because it depends on those systems. CISA's Volt Typhoon advisory, joined by energy and transport agencies, is the threat frame. The node list is the planning inference.
Wave 2 is enterprise and supply-chain systems. Gulf Coast resin plants and resin distributors are direct. Machinery suppliers and brand owners are indirect, because the quantified loss is the imported machine or the missing article rather than a second claim that each brand owner's network is the first target. The opened measured IT fact is a household-products manufacturer, not a resin plant: the company expected to begin transitioning back to normal automated order processing the week of Sept. 25 after identifying unauthorized activity on Aug. 14, 2023. This wave order is a planning model.
Wave 3 is the distributed set: converters, film plants, bottle plants, bag plants, printers, and packaging warehouses as direct targets, and reprocessors as indirect. The 12,224 product establishments and 27,800 printing establishments are the scale of that set, with the printing row limited to all printing.
origin sharepercent
The calculated China share of U.S. plastics imports was 25.9 percent.
WITSThe calculated Canada share of U.S. polyethylene imports was 80.4 percent.
WITSThe calculated China share of U.S. polyethylene exports was 15.7 percent.
WITSThe calculated China share of U.S. plastic packing-article imports was 23.0 percent.
WITSThe calculated Canada share of U.S. plastic film and sheet imports was 25.9 percent.
WITSThe calculated Germany share of U.S. plastics-machinery imports was 27.4 percent.
WITSThe calculated China share of U.S. plastics-machinery imports was 10.1 percent.
WITSprice changepercent
The calculated one-month resin-price increase was 8.8 percent.
BLSPrices for processed goods for intermediate demand increased 4.0 percent in March.
BLSThe calculated year-over-year resin-price increase was 45.9 percent.
BLSThe calculated decline in the resin index was 14.3 percent.
BLSsitessites
Plastics product manufacturing had 12,224 establishments.
BLS QCEWworkforcepeople
Plastics product manufacturing employed 588,084 people.
BLS QCEWResin manufacturing employed 60,857 people.
BLS QCEWTexas resin manufacturing employed 11,811 people.
BLS QCEWtrade valuethousand U.S. dollars
China supplied 2,309,013.86 thousand U.S. dollars of plastic packing articles.
WITSkilogramskilograms
U.S. polyethylene exports were 14,647,000,000 kilograms.
WITSshort tonsmillion short tons
Plastic containers and packaging generation was 14.5 million tons.
EPAdaysdays
The median small business held 27 cash buffer days.
JPMorgan Chase InstituteSplit open orders into polyethylene, polypropylene, film, packing articles, and machines. A China share above the national polyethylene import share of 1.2 percent is a resin-book warning. A China share near the packing-article share of 23.0 percent is a packaging-book warning. They are not the same order.
Name the Canadian and Mexican packing-article and film alternates already on the 2024 book, and the German machinery alternate. Do not plan a polyethylene swap away from a domestic or Canadian source in order to replace China.
Keep styrene polymers and heading 3907 on an Other Asia, nes watch, because that partner is 10.7 percent and 11.4 percent of those imports. That watch is not a Taiwan percent. Leave polyethylene off that watch. The calculated Other Asia, nes share of polyethylene imports was 0.2 percent. Korea and Mexico keep shipping styrene polymers.
One-month resin producer price index. Act when a one-month change in the plastics material and resin manufacturing index exceeds 4 percent. The calculated February-to-March 2021 increase was 8.8 percent. Four percent is a planning line set under that analog. It is not a BLS covenant, and it is not a claim that a China customer loss will print this move.
Small-business cash buffer days. Act when cash buffer days print below 27. The JPMorgan Chase Institute median for all small businesses was 27 days. The page has no plastics row. Twenty-seven days is a planning line set at that printed median, not a plastics covenant and not a 2024 sample.
China-origin share of packing-article receipts. Act when China-origin goods exceed 10 percent of a converter's packing-article receipts. The calculated national share was 23.0 percent of HS 3923 import value. Ten percent is a planning line set under that national share. It is not a published sourcing covenant.
China-origin share of polyethylene receipts. Act when China-origin goods exceed 2 percent of polyethylene receipts. The calculated national import share was 1.2 percent. Two percent is a planning line set above that national share, so a plant that is more China-exposed than the country trips it. It is not a published covenant.
Plastics and rubber products capacity utilization. Act when capacity utilization in plastics and rubber products manufacturing prints below 70 percent. The March 2025 note printed 70.4 percent for January and did not name that January's year. Seventy percent is a planning line set under that print, not a Federal Reserve covenant.
Texas resin-manufacturing employment. Act when Texas resin-manufacturing employment falls by more than 1,000 people from 11,811. The 2024 annual average was 11,811. The 1,000-person gap is a planning line, not a published covenant.
Plastics recycling rate. Act when a later plastics recycling rate prints below 8.7 percent. The plastics recycling rate was 8.7 percent. That 8.7 percent line is a planning line at the 2018 EPA print. No polyethylene-cover day trigger is used, because no U.S. days-of-resin series was opened.
Reallocate the China polyethylene export book toward Mexico, Canada, and other existing buyers.
Separate a Gulf energy outage plan from the China customer-loss plan.
Qualify additional Canadian and Mexican packing-article and film volume.
Do not spend the working-capital reserve on emergency polyethylene unless the plant's own China polyethylene share is above the national 1.2 percent.
Retag packaging specifications that require a China-origin article.
Keep domestic film on the primary path.
Shift open Chinese machine orders toward Germany, Canada, or Japan.
Quote only the volume the 2018 rates can support. Do not contract to replace the national China article line.
One-month change in the plastics material and resin manufacturing producer price index The calculated one-month move from 300.4 to 326.7 was 8.8 percent. A planning line at 4 percent sits under that analog.
Share of packing-article receipts that are China-origin The national calculated share was 23.0 percent of HS 3923 import value. A plant-level share is the monitor. The national figure is the baseline, not the plant's covenant.
Share of polyethylene receipts that are China-origin The national calculated share was 1.2 percent. A plant above that share is more exposed than the national resin book.
Capacity utilization, plastics and rubber products manufacturing The opened print was 70.4 percent in January, year not stated on that sentence, against a peak of 84.5 percent in January 2021.
Texas resin-manufacturing employment The 2024 annual average was 11,811 people, a calculated 19.4 percent of national resin employment.
Decision-changing limits. WITS values are thousands of U.S. dollars, as labeled Trade Value 1000USD, and are not the PLASTICS billions. The association's four categories are resin, products, machinery, and molds. HS chapter 39 is not that perimeter. The October 2025 Mexico surplus of 11.6 billion dollars and the March 2025 preliminary surplus of 12.2 billion dollars disagree. The October China industry deficit of 12.4 billion dollars and the March preliminary deficit of 10.9 billion dollars disagree. Neither pair was averaged. The 4.3 billion dollar resin surplus with China can be true beside an industry deficit with China, because the industry total includes products and machines.
Other Asia, nes is code 490. It is not a Census Taiwan line. The Census query for country code 5830 and commodity 3901 returned Missing Key and printed no commodity value. Shares calculated from code 490 are Other Asia, nes upper bounds. They are not Taiwan percents. The calculated 0.2 percent of polyethylene imports is the finding that code 490 is not the polyethylene supply. The calculated 10.7 percent of styrene polymers and 11.4 percent of heading 3907 stay on the file as Other Asia, nes shares only. No foundry-revenue share is used. The low-exposure proof is that no opened page names Taiwan for HS 3901 through 3907 or for packing articles. Continuing suppliers already printed are Canada, Mexico, Korea, Germany, Japan, Vietnam, and Thailand.
uncomtrade.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.org
The calculated 8.8 percent is (326.7 minus 300.4) divided by 300.4, from the not-seasonally-adjusted resin industry index, rounded to one decimal. It is not the 8.8 percent gasoline jump in the 9 April 2021 news release. The calculated 45.9 percent is (371.402 minus 254.5) divided by 254.5. The calculated 14.3 percent decline is (367.883 minus 315.192) divided by 367.883. Every other share in this note is calculated from the two WITS values named beside it and rounded to one decimal.
EPA figures end in 2018. QCEW figures are 2024 annual averages for ownership code 5, and the ownership title was not opened. Printing employment of 355,998 people is all of NAICS 3231. JPMorgan's 27 days are a 2015 all-small-business median. The 70.4 percent utilization print does not name the January year. No plastics truck-share and no days-of-cover series were opened. No polyethylene-cover day trigger is used. Planning lines at 4 percent, 27 days, 10 percent of packing receipts, 2 percent of polyethylene receipts, 70 percent utilization, a 1,000-person Texas employment gap, and a recycling rate below 8.7 percent are not published covenants. The Clorox week of Sept. 25 is a household-products IT filing, not a resin-plant outage, and the wave order that uses it is a planning model.
epa.govdata.bls.govdata.bls.govjpmorganchase.complasticsindustry.org
Cyber wave tags are inference. A China trade stop plus a cyber campaign can diverge from the 2021 freeze in which shelves break. The freeze analog is kept only as a price-speed and Gulf-energy reference.
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gulf energy and feedstock systems | A Gulf outage can lift resin prices in a month, which is a different shock from losing the China export customer. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | bls.gov |
| Ports and container terminals | Containerized packing articles queue, while a large share of resin never needed a China sailing. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Inland trucking | Resin and converted packaging move inland on truck after the port or the Gulf plant. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Gulf Coast resin plants | Export demand from China drops, while domestic polyethylene supply keeps running. | 0-12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | data.bls.gov |
| Resin distributors | Distributors reallocate a long domestic polyethylene book and a short list of specialty imports. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Plastics machinery suppliers | New machines from China stop, while Germany remains the largest source. | 1-12 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Brand owners and packaging buyers | Buyers substitute Canadian and Mexican packing articles and stretch domestic film when the China slice stops. | 0-12 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Plastics converters and molders | Finished packing articles from China tighten, while North American resin and film keep moving. | 0-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | data.bls.gov |
| Packaging film and sheet plants | Film supply stays mostly North American, with a thinner China slice than finished packing articles. | 0-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | data.bls.gov |
| Plastic bottle plants | Bottle plants keep a domestic resin book and a recycled-PET loop that covered 29.1 percent of PET bottles and jars in 2018. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | epa.gov |
| Bag and pouch plants | Bag plants feel the China packing-article cut more than the polyethylene cut. | 0-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | data.bls.gov |
| Commercial printers | Print shops lose work when packaging runs are short, and the industry count is all printing, not packaging alone. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | data.bls.gov |
| Packaging warehouses | Safety stock of China-origin packing articles is drawn down before the resin surplus can replace it. | 0-6 months | Wave 3 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| MRFs and plastics reprocessors | Recovered plastic cannot replace the China packing-article slice at the 2018 recycling rate. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (indirect) | epa.gov |