A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Transportation: Trucking and Last-Mile — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

Trucking is the domestic mode that keeps moving when China trade stops. Trucks moved roughly 72.7% of the nation's freight by weight in 2024. In 2025, trucks moved 11.46 billion tons and the industry saw revenues at $936.4 billion. That book is grain, retail replenishment from domestic warehouses, and non-China freight, not a China-container franchise.
trucking.org trucking.org
The trade shock is the import box. China accounted for 38.2% of total U.S. container imports in December 2024, on 902,519 TEUs that month, against a 2024 U.S. container-import total of 28,196,462 TEUs. The February 2022 peak on the same page was 41.5%.
descartes.com
The drayage gate that concentrates that box is Los Angeles. Calendar 2025 container volume was 10.2 million TEUs. China/Hong Kong cargo value was $82 billion inside port cargo value of $301 billion. Calculated from those two prints, the China/Hong Kong share of that cargo value is 27.2 percent. The port had a 17% share of U.S. containerized seaport trade, and with Long Beach about 31%.
portoflosangeles.org
The short cash analog is one week of diesel, not a year-over-year peak. The week ending 28 February 2022 printed 4.104 dollars a gallon and the week ending 7 March 2022 printed 4.849. On-highway diesel rose 18.2 percent. From 4.104 to 5.810 dollars a gallon in the week ending 20 June 2022, the calculated rise is 41.6 percent.
eia.gov
The enterprise operating system is a large carrier's network, not an average ransomware dollar. Estes shut its systems on 1 October 2023 after outside actor activity, kept picking up and delivering freight, restored customer systems in seven to eight days, and put a full return at 18 or 19 days. The lower figure given for a full return is 18 days.
truckingdive.com
A BTS freight-mode page returned HTTP 403 and supplied no figure, so the weight share used here is the ATA print, not a BTS series. The China shock that is measured remains a container share, not a truck-ton share. A retry of USITC Publication 5535 stayed HTTP 403 and supplied no figure. The Census HS API returned a missing-key page and supplied no figure. The opened customs pages are separate: HS 401120 and HS 870120.
bts.gov api.census.gov ai.fmcsa.dot.gov fmcsa.dot.gov usitc.gov trucking.org

What stops, what keeps rolling, and what can halt the order even when the truck still moves

The China shock is a container share, not a truck-ton share. China accounted for 38.2% of total U.S. container imports in December, and the Los Angeles China/Hong Kong cargo-value line was $82 billion. That container share is not applied to the 11.46 billion tons hauled in 2025, and it does not remove Canada and Mexico surface trade moved by truck.
descartes.com portoflosangeles.org trucking.org
Taiwan is a named cargo origin, not a foundry share. At Los Angeles, Taiwan cargo value was $18 billion in calendar 2025, a calculated 6.0 percent of the $301 billion port cargo value. Descartes records Taiwan up 5,652 TEUs from November to December 2024, inside the top-ten origin moves, and does not print a Taiwan share of the year.
portoflosangeles.org descartes.com
Imported tractors and tires are customs lines, not the 11.46 billion ton share. A retry of USITC Publication 5535 stayed HTTP 403 and supplied no figure, so no China tire quantity is taken from that publication. The Census HS API returned a missing-key page and supplied no figure. The opened HS 870120 page, road tractors for semi-trailers, shows China at 8,579.93 thousand US dollars and 70 items, against a world total of 9,701,053.48 thousand US dollars and 85,416 items. Mexico was 9,550,577.72 thousand US dollars and 83,889 items. 8,579.93 divided by 9,701,053.48 equals a calculated 0.0884 percent. The opened HS 401120 page, new pneumatic tyres of a kind used on buses or lorries, shows China at 186,447.57 thousand US dollars and 1,528,710 items, against a world total of 6,860,123.87 thousand US dollars and 58,604,200 items. 186,447.57 divided by 6,860,123.87 equals a calculated 2.72 percent. Neither page names Taiwan. Neither percentage is a share of truck tons.
usitc.gov api.census.gov wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org
The week-1 cash path that hits every truck, including grain and domestic retail, is diesel. On-highway diesel rose 18.2 percent from 4.104 to 4.849 dollars a gallon in one week in early March 2022. The 2 November 2026 print was 6.292 dollars a gallon. That latest level is a baseline, not the shock analog.
eia.gov
The week-1 cyber path that is actually timed is a carrier network, not a port-day count. Estes pulled network connectivity on 1 October 2023, asked customers to use text, and was still picking up and delivering on 6 October. Customer systems were back in seven to eight days. No U.S. terminal-day count was on the pages opened.
truckingdive.com cisa.gov
Highway and motor carrier is one of seven transportation subsectors, and it includes cyber systems used for operational management. Postal and shipping moves about 720 million letters and packages each day. Those are the ELD, dispatch, and last-mile layers. Wave order among them is the planning model, not a CISA timetable.
cisa.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon price analog: on-highway diesel rose 18.2 percent from the week ending 28 February 2022 at 4.104 dollars a gallon to the week ending 7 March 2022 at 4.849 dollars a gallon. The 18.2 percent figure is calculated from those two weekly prints. It is not a year-over-year peak.
eia.gov
Short-horizon outage analog: Estes customer systems were back in seven to eight days, and the lower figure given for a full return is 18 days. Freight kept moving. The day count is the executives' figure, not a calculated outage of the whole industry.
truckingdive.com

1–6 months

Accumulated diesel analog: from 4.104 dollars a gallon in the week ending 28 February 2022 to 5.810 in the week ending 20 June 2022. The calculated rise is 41.6 percent. That figure is calculated from those two prints.
eia.gov

12+ months

Long-horizon structure, not a diesel percent: 2025 industry revenue was $936.4 billion and the 2024 weight share was 72.7%. The latest diesel level on the EIA table, 6.292 dollars a gallon on 2 November 2026, is a level, not a 12-month shock path. A China tire share for the outer year was not opened.
trucking.org trucking.org eia.gov usitc.gov

Wave 1

Wave 1 is the gate, the large-carrier network, highway ELD and dispatch, and the diesel price that hits the truck. Port drayage and cardlocks are Wave 1 indirect. The Estes day-one network pull is the observed carrier path. A U.S. port-day count was not opened. This ordering is a planning model on top of the CISA transportation page and the Volt Typhoon advisory title.

cisa.gov cisa.gov truckingdive.com eia.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 is brokerage platforms as a direct hit, and truckload carriers and owner-drivers as indirect hits when the tender stops. The physical truck can be intact. This ordering is a planning inference.

cisa.gov trucking.org

Wave 3

Wave 3 is distributed parcel and last-mile systems as a direct hit, and tire and parts suppliers as an indirect hit. Postal and shipping moves about 720 million letters and packages each day. The tire China share is unpublished. This ordering is a planning inference.

cisa.gov usitc.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

38.2levelChina container imports

China accounted for 38.2% of total U.S. container imports in December

Descartes Global Shipping Report, December 2024

2.72levelHS 401120 China value share

a calculated 2.72 percent

WITS UN Comtrade

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

18.2increase0-3 monthsone-week on-highway diesel

rose 18.2 percent

EIA weekly on-highway diesel

41.6increase1-6 monthsFebruary-to-June diesel

The calculated rise is 41.6 percent

EIA weekly on-highway diesel

Downstream scale

workforce usmillion people

3.45levelprofessional drivers

3.45 million professional drivers

ATA American Trucking Trends 2026

container volumemillion TEU

10.2levelLos Angeles containers

10.2 million TEUs

Port of Los Angeles facts and figures

Operating prints

daysdays

18levelcarrier full return

The lower figure given for a full return is 18 days.

Trucking Dive, Estes cyberattack timeline

ratespercent

72.7levelfreight by weight

72.7% of the nation's freight by weight

ATA economics and industry data

What to do

Day 7

Split the book into China-origin containers and everything else. The China marker is 38.2% of December 2024 container imports and $82 billion of Los Angeles China/Hong Kong cargo value. Do not haircut the $936.4 billion industry revenue by 38.2%.
descartes.com portoflosangeles.org trucking.org
Put carrier networks and customer order entry on a day count. The Estes marker is seven to eight days for customer systems. Keep a phone and text path, which is what Estes told customers to use on 2 October 2023.
truckingdive.com

Day 30

Watch weekly on-highway diesel against the one-week analog. On-highway diesel rose 18.2 percent from 4.104 to 4.849 dollars a gallon. A move through 9 percent in one week is the planning line below, not an EIA rule.
eia.gov
Keep Canada and Mexico truck freight and domestic warehouse replenishment staffed. Those are the 68% and 86% surface shares and the 11.46 billion ton book, not the China TEU.
trucking.org

Day 90

Build the parts plan on the opened customs shares, a calculated 2.72 percent for HS 401120 and a calculated 0.0884 percent for HS 870120, and do not apply either figure to the 11.46 billion tons. A retry of USITC Publication 5535 stayed HTTP 403 and supplied no figure.
usitc.gov
Treat Taiwan as a named Los Angeles cargo line of $18 billion, calculated 6.0 percent of $301 billion, and as a December 2024 TEU increase of 5,652. Do not treat it as a foundry share of truck electronics.
portoflosangeles.org descartes.com

What to watch

Weekly U.S. on-highway diesel, one-week percent change. Act when weekly U.S. on-highway diesel rises by more than 9 percent in one week. Nine percent is a planning line set against the calculated 18.2 percent move from 4.104 to 4.849 dollars a gallon. EIA does not publish this tripwire.
eia.gov
Large-carrier customer systems, days down. Act when a large carrier's customer systems are down more than 7 days. Seven days is a planning line set against the Estes window of seven to eight days. Trucking Dive does not publish a covenant, and the 7-day line is not an Estes operating rule.
truckingdive.com
China share of U.S. container imports, percent. Act when a monthly China share of U.S. container imports prints below 19.1 percent. Half of the December 2024 print of 38.2 is 19.1, and that half is calculated. The 19.1 line is a planning line. Descartes does not publish a minimum China share.
descartes.com
On-highway diesel level, dollars a gallon. Act when weekly on-highway diesel prints above 4.849 dollars a gallon in a war week if the pre-shock week was near 4.104. The 4.849 figure is the 7 March 2022 print, used as a planning line at the observed one-week peak analog, not as an EIA ceiling. The 2 November 2026 level of 6.292 is a different baseline and is not this trigger.
eia.gov

By role

Port drayage and intermodal carriers

Split gates into China-origin and all other boxes before week 1.
Keep outbound export dray, including the Los Angeles soybean and pet-feed moves, on a separate plan.
Do not size the fleet to the $936.4 billion industry revenue.

portoflosangeles.org descartes.com trucking.org

Truckload and LTL carriers

Run a seven-to-eight-day customer-system case in which wheels still turn and invoices do not.
Staff domestic and Canada-Mexico freight as the continuing book.
Isolate order entry from the systems that dispatch the truck.

truckingdive.com trucking.org cisa.gov

Owner-drivers and freight brokers

Stage a manual tender path for the 91.5% of carriers with 10 or fewer trucks.
Watch weekly diesel against the 9 percent planning line.

trucking.org eia.gov

Lenders

Haircut China-box drayage, not the 11.46 billion ton book.
Advance on miles only if invoices can be cut without the customer system.
Fund the China tire exposure only at the customs value share that is a calculated 2.72 percent, and do not apply it to the 11.46 billion tons.

trucking.org truckingdive.com usitc.gov

Weekly checks

U.S. on-highway diesel, dollars a gallon The one-week analog is 4.104 to 4.849, and on-highway diesel rose 18.2 percent. The 2 November 2026 level is 6.292.
eia.gov
China share of U.S. container imports, percent The December 2024 print is 38.2%, on 902,519 TEUs. A break in that monthly share is the drayage signal. It is not a signal for the 11.46 billion ton book.
descartes.com
Los Angeles container volume and China/Hong Kong cargo value Calendar 2025 volume was 10.2 million TEUs and China/Hong Kong cargo value was $82 billion inside $301 billion.
portoflosangeles.org
Large-carrier customer systems, days down Estes customer systems were down seven to eight days. The lower figure given for a full return is 18 days. Days down is the enterprise operating signal.
truckingdive.com
For-hire tonnage versus the domestic book The 2025 tonnage print is 11.46 billion tons. A stable tonnage print with a falling China container share means the shock is drayage, not the whole industry.
trucking.org descartes.com

What is not known

Observed baselines are the ATA pages, the EIA diesel weeks, the Descartes container report, the Port of Los Angeles facts page, the CISA transportation page, the Volt Typhoon alert title, and the Estes timeline. Scenario inferences are the wave order, any claim that a 2027 diesel path will match 2022, and any claim that a U.S. port gate will fail for a stated number of days. No U.S. terminal-day count was opened.
trucking.org eia.gov cisa.gov truckingdive.com
Decision-changing limits. The BTS freight page at the freight-mode URL returned HTTP 403 and supplied no figure, so the 72.7% weight share is ATA, not BTS. The FMCSA registration page and the FMCSA ELD page returned HTTP 403 and supplied no figure. The Census HS API returned a missing-key page and supplied no figure. A retry of USITC Publication 5535 stayed HTTP 403 and supplied no figure. The opened customs shares are a calculated 2.72 percent of HS 401120 value and a calculated 0.0884 percent of HS 870120 value, and neither is a share of the 11.46 billion tons. A China share of U.S. intermodal-style truck tons stays unpublished because the China shock is the container share. The 38.2% container share is one month, not a printed full-year share. Los Angeles China/Hong Kong combines two origins. The 720 million figure is letters and packages, not parcels alone. The low-exposure proof for truck electronics is the ELD page, which supplied no figure, plus the HS 870829 table, which does not name Taiwan.
bts.gov ai.fmcsa.dot.gov fmcsa.dot.gov api.census.gov usitc.gov descartes.com portoflosangeles.org cisa.gov
Calculated figures use two printed inputs and are labeled. Diesel 18.2 percent uses 4.849 and 4.104. Diesel 41.6 percent uses 5.810 and 4.104. The Los Angeles China/Hong Kong share of 27.2 percent uses 82 and 301. The Taiwan cargo share of 6.0 percent uses 18 and 301. The carrier bands of 7.8 and 0.7 percentage points use 99.3, 91.5, and 100. The planning half of the China container share uses 38.2 divided by 2, which is 19.1. The 9 percent diesel tripwire is a planning line set against 18.2 percent, not a claimed exact half.
eia.gov portoflosangeles.org trucking.org descartes.com
The Trends size split of 91.1% and 99.2% is a different edition from the economics-page split of 91.5% and 99.3% and is not used. The economics page also prints 8.4 million trucking-related jobs in 2024 excluding the self-employed and 3.58 million drivers in 2024. Those are not substituted for the 2025 Trends counts of 8.5 million and 3.45 million professional drivers. The Volt Typhoon page is used for the advisory title. Victim-carrier claims that were not in the fetched body are not used.
trucking.org trucking.org cisa.gov

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Port terminal gates	A gate outage stops the China-origin box before a truck is loaded.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Port of Los Angeles facts; Descartes December 2024; CISA transportation sector
Port drayage fleets	Drayage loses the China-origin container, not the domestic truckload book.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Descartes 38.2 percent; Port of Los Angeles imports
LTL carriers	A large LTL network can lose customer orders for seven to eight days, with a full return at 18 days, while wheels still turn.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Trucking Dive Estes timeline
Highway ELD and dispatch networks	Order entry and highway cyber systems can fail even when the safety platform is not the story on the page that opened.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	CISA transportation sector; Estes timeline; FMCSA ELD page HTTP 403
Diesel cardlocks	A one-week diesel jump is the cash hit at the pump, separate from a lost China box.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	EIA weekly on-highway diesel
Freight brokers	Brokerage platforms stop the load tender even when the truck is available.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	Estes timeline; ATA carrier count; CISA Volt Typhoon title
Truckload carriers	Domestic truckload keeps moving grain, warehouse replenishment, and non-China freight.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	ATA Trends 2025 tons and cross-border shares
Owner-drivers	Most registered carriers are small, and a lost broker tender hits them before a national tonnage print does.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	ATA June 2025 carrier size split
Parcel and last-mile firms	Letters and packages keep a domestic delivery book that is not a China-box book.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	CISA postal and shipping volume
Tire and parts suppliers	Customs origin for bus and lorry tyres is a calculated 2.72 percent from China, which is not the 11.46 billion ton share.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	USITC Publication 5535 HTTP 403; Census API missing key