A 2027 planning scenario, not a forecast. A 2027 U.S.-China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are severely restricted or delayed, and PRC cyber disruption hits in waves: infrastructure, then enterprises, then smaller firms. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Agriculture & Food Production — United States (Primary Production)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

The United States is the world's second largest agricultural trader, behind the European Union. Calendar-year 2025 agricultural exports were $171.5 billion, up from $57 billion in 2001. Calendar-year 2024 exports were worth $177.2 billion and stimulated another $1.08 per dollar, an additional $192.0 billion, for total economic output of $369.2 billion.
ers.usda.gov
China's share of U.S. agricultural export value was 15 percent in that five-year window, up from about 7 percent in 2001-05. The 15 percent figure is a 2021-25 window. It is the demand line that stops. It is not a single-year cash invoice, because the FAS destination pages returned HTTP 403 on this pass.
ers.usda.gov fas.usda.gov fas.usda.gov
Most grain does not need a Chinese buyer. The United States exports approximately one-quarter of the grain it produces. That includes nearly 46 percent of U.S.-grown wheat, 47 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans, and 15 percent of the U.S.-grown corn. A calculated complement of those printed shares is 54 percent of wheat, 53 percent of soybeans, and 85 percent of corn. Domestic use and non-China export buyers continue. Input cost and basis still move.
ams.usda.gov
The input that stops is herbicide, not the fertilizer dollar book. In 2024 the United States imported $458,610.70K and 82,247,500 kg of HS 380830 herbicides, anti-sprouting products and plant-growth regulators. China supplied $105,184.44K and 37,921,800 kg. That is a calculated 22.9 percent of value and a calculated 46.1 percent of herbicide quantity. Germany, Colombia, and India keep shipping.
wits.worldbank.org
Fertilizer value continues. 2024 HS 31 fertilizer imports were $9,371,796.70K. Canada was $3,867,051.52K. China was $26,149.29K, a calculated 0.28 percent of fertilizer import value. Domestic nitrogen manufacture was 15.1 million short tons of nutrient in 2024. Potash has no agronomic substitute, and 80 percent of potash imports for domestic use came from Canada.
wits.worldbank.org ams.usda.gov pubs.usgs.gov
Farm output contributed $222.3 billion, about 0.8 percent of GDP in 2023. Agriculture, food, and related industries contributed roughly $1.537 trillion, a 5.5-percent share. The 5.5 percent figure includes food manufacturing, stores, food service, textiles, and forestry and fishing. It is larger than the farm. CISA's separate 5.6 percent of GDP and 10.4 percent of employment is a different print and is not blended with the ERS 5.5 percent.
ers.usda.gov cisa.gov
The short price analog is a calculated 17.2 percent rise in one month in the World Bank urea benchmark, from $744.17 per metric ton to $872.50 per metric ton. A calculated 181.9 percent rise from a year earlier is the accumulated peak, not the 0-3 month band. U.S. total agricultural tractor sales declined 19.6 percent in one month versus a year earlier, a separate equipment analog.
thedocs.worldbank.org aem.org

What stops, and what keeps moving, when China trade stops

Export demand to China stops. ERS states that the China share of U.S. agricultural exports grew from about 7 percent during 2001-05 to 15 percent during 2021-25. High-value products were 71 percent of export value in 2025. Every $1 billion of 2024 agricultural exports supported approximately 5,854 jobs, and 2024 exports supported 1.04 million full-time civilian jobs, including 607,800 nonfarm jobs.
ers.usda.gov
Domestic grain use and non-China buyers continue. As of 30 October, 67 percent of corn commitments remained unshipped, and strong sales to Mexico accounted for 39 percent of the unshipped balance. FAS also reported daily export sales to China totaling 2.25 mmt in that window. Under this scenario the China slice of that book goes to zero and the Mexico slice remains.
ams.usda.gov
In 2024, approximately 48 percent of the U.S. export grain shipments departed through the U.S. Gulf region and 27 percent departed through the PNW. The grain that still exports, including the Mexico book, still uses those gates.
ams.usda.gov
Herbicide supply from China stops. Continuing herbicide suppliers on the same WITS page include Germany at $69,509.62K and 3,256,080 kg, Colombia at $63,024.57K and 15,350,300 kg, and India at $61,818.11K and 10,678,300 kg. HS 380830 is the HS 1988/92 line. The product name on the page is truncated. It is not the full modern pesticide chapter.
wits.worldbank.org
Fertilizer tons keep arriving from Canada and from Gulf nitrogen producers. The United States imported 5.8 million tons of nitrogen, 1.6 million tons of phosphorus, and 9.6 million tons of potassium on a nutrient-equivalent basis, and 42.2 million tons of fertilizer commodities, in 2024. Potash was 15.4 million tons, of which 4.9 million tons were re-exported, leaving 10.5 million tons for U.S. domestic use. Russia was 16 percent of potash imports for domestic use and $1,304,004.87K of HS 31 value. Russia is outside this scenario and keeps shipping unless the scenario is widened.
ams.usda.gov wits.worldbank.org
Taiwan export delay is a low exposure on the agriculture machinery line that was fetched, and an unpublished exposure for farm GNSS and controllers. WITS states that the United States did not import HS 8432 soil-preparation machinery from TWN in 2024. China was $94,455.82K of a $1,003,519.74K HS 8432 book, a calculated 9.4 percent, while Canada was $465,557.29K. A global foundry-revenue share is not used.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org
Cyber disruption is layered on top of the trade stop. CISA lists the Food and Agriculture Sector as almost entirely privately owned, with critical dependencies on water and wastewater for irrigation and processed water, transportation for movement of products and livestock, energy to power equipment, and chemicals for fertilizers and pesticides. The FBI attributed the JBS attack to REvil and Sodinokibi. The FBI page prints no plant count, no downtime, and no dollar loss.
cisa.gov fbi.gov
The measured agriculture cyber facts are on two other FBI pages. The Private Industry Notification says that between 15 September and 6 October 2021, six grain cooperatives experienced ransomware attacks, and some targeted entities had to completely halt production. That notice does not print a day count for the halt. Its $30 million figure is a ransom demand on a business-management software company, not a printed loss at those cooperatives. The FBI Omaha story says six grain cooperatives in the region were forced to temporarily shut down, and that another farm recently suffered $9 million in damages and had to cease operations. The two counts of six are separate statements and are not merged. Wave order remains a planning model.
ic3.gov fbi.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon analog: World Bank urea moved from $744.17 per metric ton to $872.50 per metric ton in one month. That change is a calculated 17.2 percent rise in one month. The calculated 181.9 percent rise from a year earlier is not this band.
thedocs.worldbank.org
A second short-horizon analog is physical and weekly. Several Florida phosphate facilities were closed for as much as 2 weeks. Diesel rose a total of 24.8 cents to $3.868 per gallon after a 13.4 cent decline, inside the December 2025 transportation report.
pubs.usgs.gov ams.usda.gov
Short-horizon cyber analog for this band: six grain cooperatives experienced ransomware attacks between 15 September and 6 October 2021, and some had to completely halt production. The FBI does not print the number of days production stayed down. Wave order is a planning model.
ic3.gov

1–6 months

Accumulated analog: urea moved from $328.1 per metric ton in April 2021 to $925.0 per metric ton in April 2022. That change is a calculated 181.9 percent rise from a year earlier. Tractor sales declined 19.6 percent in a single later month, which shows an equipment response inside a year.
thedocs.worldbank.org aem.org

12+ months

Residual analog: urea was $215.4 per metric ton in January 2020 and $352.0 per metric ton in December 2024. The change is a calculated 63.4 percent above the pre-shock print. The workbook was updated on 3 January 2025.
thedocs.worldbank.org

Wave 1

Wave 1 is infrastructure: rail, locks and barge, and Gulf and PNW terminals, plus trucking as an indirect user of fuel and roads. CISA already lists transportation and energy as sector dependencies.

cisa.gov ams.usda.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 is enterprises: elevators, herbicide suppliers, feed mills, processor customers, cold storage, fertilizer dealers, and lenders. The JBS attribution shows a processor can be hit directly. The six grain cooperatives that halted production are the measured elevator analog. This wave order is a planning model, not a count of attacks.

fbi.gov ngfa.org ic3.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 is smaller firms: the 1,894,950 farms and equipment dealers. 79.0 percent of farms had less than $100,000 in sales.

release.nass.usda.gov aem.org

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

15levelChina export-value window

China's share of U.S. agricultural export value was 15 percent

USDA ERS

47levelSoybeans exported

47 percent of U.S.-grown soybeans

USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report

48levelGulf export grain

48 percent of the U.S. export grain

USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report

80levelCanada potash for domestic use

80 percent of potash imports for domestic use

USDA AMS Grain Transportation Report

46.1levelChina herbicide quantity

a calculated 46.1 percent of herbicide quantity

WITS HS 380830

0.28levelChina fertilizer value

a calculated 0.28 percent of fertilizer import value

WITS HS 31

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

17.2increase0-3 monthsUrea one-month

a calculated 17.2 percent rise in one month

World Bank pink sheet

181.9increase1-6 monthsUrea year-over-year

a calculated 181.9 percent rise from a year earlier

World Bank pink sheet

63.4increase12+ monthsUrea versus pre-shock print

a calculated 63.4 percent above the pre-shock print

World Bank pink sheet

Downstream scale

sitessites

7,922levelOff-farm storage facilities

Off-farm storage facilities totaled 7,922.

USDA NASS Grain Stocks

workforcepeople

900levelPotash mine and mill employment

Employment at mine and mill was about 900.

USGS potash

Operating prints

ratespercent

19.6declineTractor sales versus a year earlier

declined 19.6 percent

AEM

us farm outputbillion USD

222.3levelFarm output

Farm output contributed $222.3 billion

USDA ERS

weeksweeks

2levelFlorida phosphate closures

closed for as much as 2 weeks

USGS phosphate rock

What to do

Day 7

Confirm on-farm and warehouse herbicide kilograms against the 2024 China pace of 37,921,800 kg for the year, and place orders with Germany, Colombia, India, or another non-China supplier already on the WITS page.
wits.worldbank.org
Confirm potash coverage with the Canadian supplier. The baseline is 80 percent of potash imports for domestic use from Canada.
ams.usda.gov

Day 30

Re-read the weekly export sales book. The reference print is daily China sales totaling 2.25 mmt and Mexico at 39 percent of the unshipped corn balance. Move soybeans that can still clear into the domestic crush or a non-China sale before off-farm stocks build through the 1.56 billion bushel baseline.
ams.usda.gov downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu

Day 90

Qualify a second soil-preparation machinery source in Canada or Germany. Those two supplied $465,557.29K and $116,990.68K. Taiwan supplied none of HS 8432 in 2024.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org

What to watch

Monthly urea benchmark, percent. Act when a monthly urea benchmark rises more than 8.6 percent. The fetched one-month analog is a calculated 17.2 percent rise in one month, from $744.17 to $872.50 per metric ton. Half of that analog, 8.6 percent, is a planning line set against the printed baseline. It is not a farmgate covenant.
thedocs.worldbank.org
Canada share of potash imports for domestic use. Act when Canada's share of potash imports for domestic use prints below 80 percent. The Grain Transportation Report printed 80 percent for 2024. This scenario leaves Canada shipping, so a print below 80 percent means the shock is wider than a China stop. The 80 percent line is that printed baseline used as a planning tripwire, not a statute.
ams.usda.gov
China herbicide kilograms. Act when a quarter's China-origin HS 380830 kilograms fall by more than half from the 2024 pace of 37,921,800 kg. Half of that annual quantity is a planning line. The 37,921,800 kg figure is the printed baseline.
wits.worldbank.org
Soybean off-farm stocks, bushels. Act when soybean off-farm stocks print above 1.56 billion bushels. That is the 1 December 2024 NASS baseline. A higher print is the planning line for an export stop backing up into elevators. NASS does not publish this as a covenant.
downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu
Unshipped soybean sales to China. Act when unshipped soybean sales to China are zero for two consecutive weeks. The December 2025 Grain Transportation Report still showed daily export sales to China totaling 2.25 mmt. Two weeks is a planning line set against that baseline, not an FAS rule.
ams.usda.gov

By role

Row-crop and livestock operators

Lock non-China herbicide for the next application window and keep the Canadian potash nomination.
Price the unsold soybean share against domestic crush and non-China bids before off-farm stocks build.

wits.worldbank.org ams.usda.gov

Elevators and exporters

Watch the Gulf and PNW shares, 48 percent and 27 percent, and the Mexico corn book at 39 percent of the unshipped balance.
Stage grain against 11.8 billion bushels of off-farm capacity and 7,922 facilities.

ams.usda.gov downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu

Input dealers

Split the order book. Fertilizer stays on Canada and the Gulf. Herbicide moves off China.

wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org

Lenders and insurers

Stress soybean collateral at the 1.56 billion bushel off-farm stock and urea at the 17.2 percent one-month analog.

downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu thedocs.worldbank.org

Weekly checks

Weekly FAS export sales: China soybean sales versus the 2.25 mmt daily-sales print, and Mexico's share of the unshipped corn balance versus 39 percent.
ams.usda.gov
Gulf and PNW grain inspections versus 48 percent of the U.S. export grain through the Gulf and 27 percent through the PNW.
ams.usda.gov
World Bank urea versus the one-month analog, a calculated 17.2 percent rise in one month, and dealer herbicide receipts versus 37,921,800 kg.
thedocs.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org
On-highway diesel versus the $3.868 per gallon print, and Class I fertilizer carloads versus the 251,252 carload year.
ams.usda.gov ams.usda.gov

What is not known

Decision-changing limits. The China export exposure is a 15 percent share of agricultural export value across 2021-25, not a 2024 destination invoice. FAS pages that would carry that invoice returned HTTP 403. Grain export shares are production shares: 15 percent of corn, 47 percent of soybeans, 46 percent of wheat. A calculated complement is the share that does not need an export buyer. It is still exposed to input cost and basis. GTR fertilizer tons are short tons. USGS potash tons are thousand metric tons of K2O. They are not added. HS 380830 is the 1988/92 herbicide line, not every pesticide. The World Bank urea series is a global nominal benchmark in dollars per metric ton, updated 3 January 2025, not a U.S. farmgate price.
ers.usda.gov fas.usda.gov fas.usda.gov fas.usda.gov ams.usda.gov pubs.usgs.gov wits.worldbank.org thedocs.worldbank.org
Taiwan limit. HS 8432 imports from TWN in 2024 were a documented zero. HS 852691 radio navigational aid apparatus does not name Taiwan, and Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. No fetched page prints the share of Taiwanese controllers in U.S. farm equipment. That unpublished share is the remaining Taiwan gap. A foundry-revenue statistic is not used in its place.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org
Retrieval limits. https://www.nass.usda.gov/Publications/Todays_Reports/reports/grst0125.pdf returned HTTP 404. Stocks and capacity are from the Cornell copy of the 10 January 2025 release. https://www.ers.usda.gov/faqs/ returned HTTP 403 and is not the GDP source. https://www.usda.gov/about-usda/news/press-releases/2021/06/01/statement-us-department-agriculture-jbs-usa-ransomware-attack returned HTTP 403. https://www.cdc.gov/mmwr/volumes/69/wr/mm6918e3.htm returned HTTP 403. No case count, plant count, or downtime is taken from those two pages. No on-farm cold-storage day count and no Farm Credit or RMA liability dollar were on the fetched pages.
nass.usda.gov downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu ers.usda.gov usda.gov cdc.gov fbi.gov
Calculated figures in this report use two numbers printed on the same fetched page or the same pink-sheet workbook, and the prose says they are calculated. Shares are China herbicide value 105,184.44 divided by 458,610.70, China herbicide kilograms 37,921,800 divided by 82,247,500, China fertilizer value 26,149.29 divided by 9,371,796.70, China HS 8432 value 94,455.82 divided by 1,003,519.74, urea one-month 872.50 versus 744.17, urea year-over-year 925.0 versus 328.1, urea residual 352.0 versus 215.4, and the grain complements 100 minus 15, 100 minus 47, and 100 minus 46. Tripwires at 8.6 percent, half of China herbicide kilograms, two weeks of zero China sales, and stocks above 1.56 billion bushels are planning lines.
wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org thedocs.worldbank.org ams.usda.gov downloads.usda.library.cornell.edu
Cyber wave tags are a planning model aligned to infrastructure, then enterprises, then smaller firms. They are not a measurement of attack frequency. The 5.5 percent ERS GDP share and the 5.6 percent CISA GDP share are different prints. Food and beverage manufacturing employment of 1.7 million people is outside primary production and is cited only as customer scale.
cisa.gov ers.usda.gov

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Row-crop and livestock farms	Working-capital and input-cost shock on the farm, with domestic grain use still clearing.	0-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	NASS farms; GTR export shares; FBI farm loss
Fertilizer importers and dealers	Potash and Gulf nitrogen keep moving; the China dollar slice of fertilizer is small.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	WITS HS 31; GTR potash
Herbicide suppliers	China-origin herbicide volume stops; Germany, Colombia, and India keep shipping.	0-3 months	Wave 2 (direct)	WITS HS 380830
Grain elevators and off-farm storage	Off-farm stocks and storage capacity absorb a China export stop.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	NASS Grain Stocks; FBI cooperative notice
Feed mills and domestic livestock users	Domestic feed demand continues and bids against a weaker export bid.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	NASS disappearance; GTR corn share
Meat processors as farm customers	Processor customers can stop taking livestock even though primary production is the industry in scope.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	FBI JBS attribution; FBI cooperative notice
Cold storage for perishables	Perishable shipments lose time when cold-storage power or booking systems fail.	0-3 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	CISA dependencies
Rail fertilizer and grain	Fertilizer and grain carloads stop when the rail network is the week-1 target.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	GTR carloads; modal share
Barge and river locks	Gulf barge grain and fertilizer lose the lock system.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Modal share; GTR New Orleans
Farm and elevator trucking	Farm and elevator trucks lose fuel, dispatch, or road access when infrastructure fails.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Modal share; GTR diesel
Gulf and PNW export terminals	Gulf and PNW inspections are the export gate for the grain that does leave.	0-6 months	Wave 1 (direct)	GTR Gulf and PNW shares
Farm equipment dealers	New tractor and combine orders fall, and Taiwan controller content is unpublished.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	AEM; WITS HS 8432 and HS 852691
Ag lenders and crop insurers	Crop loans and insurance ride the same price and yield shock as the farm.	1-12 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	ERS export book; NASS stocks

Agriculture & Food Production — United States (Primary Production)

What happens

What stops, and what keeps moving, when China trade stops

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

Row-crop and livestock operators

Elevators and exporters

Input dealers

Lenders and insurers

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources