chinese-war.com

A 2027 planning scenario, not a forecast. A 2027 U.S.-China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are severely restricted or delayed, and PRC cyber disruption hits in waves: infrastructure, then enterprises, then smaller firms. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Agriculture & Food Production — Australia (Primary Production)

Read the United States briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

What stops, and what keeps moving, when China trade stops

  1. The China agricultural-export invoice stops. China bought $16,716 million, accounting for 22 per cent. Beef and veal were $16,095 million and 21.2 percent of agricultural exports. Wheat was $8,661 million and 11.4 percent. Wool was $2,758 million and 3.6 percent. Barley was $2,962 million. Wine at $2,609 million and dairy products at $3,727 million are downstream of primary production and are context only.

    dfat.gov.au

  2. Wool is the primary product with the tightest printed China share. China accounts for 82 per cent of Australia's global wool exports on the ChAFTA fact sheet. The fact sheet is not dated to the same year as the $2,758 million wool line, so the 82 per cent is not multiplied by that dollar line. The WTO wool tariff-rate quota is 287,000 tonnes at 1 per cent, and Australia's country-specific quota grew to 44,324 tonnes clean by 2024.

    dfat.gov.audfat.gov.au

  3. Other buyers continue. A calculated $26,859 million is the sum of the United States, Japan, the European Union, Korea, and Indonesia on the same DFAT table. Applied Australian agriculture tariffs averaged 0.9 per cent in 2024.

    dfat.gov.au

  4. China-origin phosphate and sulphate fertilisers stop. China supplied 42 percent of DAP imports, with Saudi Arabia at 30 percent and Morocco at 22 percent. China supplied 22 percent of MAP imports, behind Morocco at 39 percent. China supplied 96 percent of SOA imports. China supplied 80 percent of superphosphate imports. China supplied 24 percent of NPK imports. China supplied 11 percent of UAN imports, behind the United States at 86 percent. The dashboard window is the share of imports over 2023-2025, sourced from ABS, and 2026 data were not yet available.

    agriculture.gov.au

  5. Urea and muriate of potash keep moving under a China-only stop. For the season from 1 November 2025 to 31 October 2026, Australia imported 104 percent of ABARES' estimated urea demand. Urea's top sources were the United Arab Emirates at 23 percent, Saudi Arabia at 17 percent, Qatar at 17 percent, Malaysia at 11 percent, and Indonesia at 10 percent. China is not in that urea top list. Muriate of potash was Canada at 63 percent, Jordan at 15 percent, and the United States at 12 percent. Sources marked as passing the Strait of Hormuz are a separate risk and are outside this scenario.

    agriculture.gov.au

  6. Herbicide kilograms from China stop. A calculated 86.6 percent of herbicide quantity is the China line of 245,286,000 kg inside 283,384,000 kg. HS 380830 is the HS 1988/92 heading. The product name on the page is truncated. It is not the full modern pesticide chapter.

    wits.worldbank.org

  7. The export gate that is quantified is Western Australia and Brisbane, not a national port model. CBH receivals reached 24.1 million tonnes, of which 16.3 million tonnes were stored under tarp. In December, more than 2 million tonnes were shipped through all four port terminals. At Brisbane, bulk grain export tonnages reached nearly 2 million tonnes.

    cbh.com.auportbris.com.au

  8. Taiwan delay shows up in SOP, where Taiwan supplied 19 percent of SOP imports and Germany supplied 63 percent. It does not show up as a named row on the 2024 HS 8432 import table. Soil-preparation machinery imports were $263,540.58K, with Canada at $67,749.85K and China at $23,418.30K, a calculated 8.9 percent. The visible partner list does not include Taiwan. That is not the same as a dedicated partner-page zero.

    agriculture.gov.auwits.worldbank.org

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

  • Short-horizon analog: World Bank DAP moved from $747.13 per metric ton to $938.13 per metric ton in one month. That change is a calculated 25.6 percent rise in one month. The calculated 75.6 percent rise from a year earlier is not this band. The series is a global benchmark, not the Geelong FCA price, which the dashboard dates and does not price.

    thedocs.worldbank.orgagriculture.gov.au

  • Short-horizon cyber analog for this band: six grain cooperatives experienced ransomware attacks between 15 September and 6 October 2021, and some had to completely halt production. The FBI does not print a day count. The $9 million farm loss is a US dollar without a printed duration. Wave order is a planning model.

    ic3.govfbi.gov

1–6 months

  • Accumulated analog: DAP moved from $543.4 per metric ton in April 2021 to $954.0 per metric ton in April 2022. That change is a calculated 75.6 percent rise from a year earlier.

    thedocs.worldbank.org

12+ months

  • Residual analog: DAP was $264.9 per metric ton in January 2020 and $568.33 per metric ton in December 2024. The change is a calculated 114.5 percent above the pre-shock print. The workbook was updated on 3 January 2025.

    thedocs.worldbank.org

Wave 2

Wave 2 is enterprises: fertiliser importers, herbicide importers, CBH storage, the cold chain, and wool exporters. This order is a planning model. The measured handler analog is the US FBI record of six grain cooperatives that had to completely halt production, because the CISC sector pages returned HTTP 404.

agriculture.gov.aucbh.com.aucisc.gov.auic3.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 is smaller firms: broadacre and livestock farms, horticulture labour contractors, and rural lenders as an indirect credit effect. The readable farm count is an estimated 53,400 farm businesses.

agriculture.gov.auagriculture.gov.au

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

22levelChina agricultural exports

accounting for 22 per cent

DFAT
71levelProduction exported by volume

exported 71 percent of agriculture's production

ABARES Snapshot
15.3levelChina fertilizer value

a calculated 15.3 percent of fertilizer import value

WITS HS 31
86.6levelChina herbicide quantity

a calculated 86.6 percent of herbicide quantity

WITS HS 380830

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

75.6increase1-6 monthsDAP year-over-year

a calculated 75.6 percent rise from a year earlier

World Bank pink sheet
114.5increase12+ monthsDAP versus pre-shock print

a calculated 114.5 percent above the pre-shock print

World Bank pink sheet

Downstream scale

sitessites

53,400levelBroadacre and dairy farm businesses

an estimated 53,400 farm businesses

ABARES Snapshot

workforcepeople

354,600levelAgriculture Labour Account

354,600 employed people

ABARES Snapshot

Operating prints

ratespercent

19levelNon-tariff measure tariff equivalent

approximately equivalent to a 19 percent tariff

ABARES Snapshot

au china exportsmillion AUD

16,716levelChina agricultural exports

China bought $16,716 million.

DFAT

What to do

Day 7

  • Confirm DAP, SOA, and superphosphate coverage against China shares of 42 percent, 96 percent, and 80 percent, and place alternate orders with Saudi Arabia, Morocco, or another non-China source already on the dashboard.

    agriculture.gov.au

  • Confirm herbicide kilograms against the China pace of 245,286,000 kg and the Malaysia book of 23,393,300 kg.

    wits.worldbank.org

Day 30

  • Re-cut the China export invoice of $16,716 million against the continuing five-market sum of a calculated $26,859 million. Watch CBH monthly shipments against the December print of more than 2 million tonnes.

    dfat.gov.aucbh.com.au

Day 90

  • Keep urea imports at or above the 104 percent coverage print, and keep MOP nominated in Canada at the 63 percent baseline. Treat Taiwan SOP at 19 percent as the machinery-adjacent input to dual-source from Germany.

    agriculture.gov.au

What to watch

By role

Broadacre and livestock producers

  • Lock non-China DAP, SOA, and superphosphate, and keep the Canadian MOP nomination.

  • Price unsold wheat and wool against the continuing buyers before the China invoice is the only bid.

agriculture.gov.audfat.gov.au

Fertiliser and herbicide importers

  • Split the book. Urea and MOP stay on their current sources. DAP, SOA, superphosphates, and herbicides move off China.

  • Use the landed fund volume, over 333,000 tonnes, as evidence that a public urea backstop has worked once. Do not treat it as cover for DAP.

agriculture.gov.auwits.worldbank.org

Bulk handlers and ports

  • Keep the four CBH terminals and Brisbane available for non-China cargo. The December and FY25 tonne prints are the baselines.

cbh.com.auportbris.com.au

Lenders and insurers

  • Stress the China invoice at $16,716 million and DAP at the 25.6 percent one-month analog. Do not invent a debt stock the sources do not print.

dfat.gov.authedocs.worldbank.org

Weekly checks

What is not known

Working papers: node summary
NodePrimary impactTime horizonCyber waveEvidence
Broadacre and livestock farmsExport-price and input-cost shock on broadacre and livestock farms, with domestic meat and dairy use continuing.0-12 monthsWave 3 (direct)ABARES snapshot; DFAT exports
Fertiliser importersChina-origin DAP, SOA, and superphosphates stop; urea and Canadian potash keep moving.0-6 monthsWave 2 (direct)ABARES fertiliser dashboard
Herbicide importersChina-origin herbicide kilograms stop; Malaysia keeps shipping.0-3 monthsWave 2 (direct)WITS HS 380830
Bulk handlers and CBH storageCBH receivals and tarp storage are the bulk buffer behind the farm gate.0-6 monthsWave 2 (direct)CBH harvest report
Port of Melbourne grain exportsMelbourne grain-export tonnes are unpublished on this pass because the trade-results PDF returned HTTP 404.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)Port of Melbourne PDF, HTTP 404
Port of Brisbane bulk grainBrisbane bulk grain is a live export gate with a recent tonne print.0-6 monthsWave 1 (direct)Port of Brisbane FY25
CBH four port terminalsThe four CBH terminals are the WA shipping gate.0-6 monthsWave 1 (direct)CBH December shipments
Cold chain for horticultureHorticulture loses shelf life when the cold chain fails.0-3 monthsWave 2 (indirect)DFAT horticulture exports
Horticulture labour contractorsSeasonal labour is a real constraint, and the 2022 horticulture labour survey PDF returned HTTP 404.0-6 monthsWave 3 (indirect)ABARES snapshot; survey PDF HTTP 404
Wool exportersWool is the primary product with the highest printed China concentration.0-12 monthsWave 2 (indirect)ChAFTA fact sheet
Ag lenders and insurersFarm lenders and insurers carry the same cash-income shock as the farm business.1-12 monthsWave 3 (indirect)DFAT export line; ABARES cash-income baseline

Sources