A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Australia runs two rail systems that a China stop does not hit the same way. Export bulk rail loses Chinese demand. Interstate intermodal is a domestic general-freight system. Trainline 13 says explicit rail traffic data is not available for the Pilbara iron ore network, and that published iron ore export volumes through the ports are the proxy because the iron ore is generally moved to the ports by rail. In 2024-25, Port Hedland exported 569.8 million tonnes and Dampier exported 147.1 million tonnes. Those are port tonnes, not a weighbridge on the Pilbara railway, and they are not interstate intermodal.
China's share of the iron-ore loss is a trade table, not a rail table. In calendar 2024, Australia exported 899,747,000,000 kilograms of non-agglomerated iron ores and concentrates. China took 767,150,000,000 kilograms. That is a calculated 85.3 percent. The heading is HS 260111 only. The year is calendar 2024, not the 2024-25 port year. The share is not multiplied by Port Hedland tonnes.
Coal is a partial China exposure. In calendar 2024, Australia exported 361,958,000,000 kilograms of HS 2701 coal. China took 83,987,300,000 kilograms, a calculated 23.2 percent. Japan's quantity was 110,374,000,000 kilograms, larger than China's. A China stop takes the China slice. It does not empty the Hunter Valley or the Central Queensland Coal Network.
Interstate intermodal is a different denominator. In October 2025 there were 118 scheduled intermodal services per week on capital-city pairs, a reduction of 19 from February 2024. Paths are paid allocations and may differ from trains run. ARTC gross tonnes include empty wagons and locomotive weights, and coal on the interstate network is excluded. Acacia Ridge-Casino intermodal was 5.12 million gross tonnes in 2024-25. Aurizon interstate containerised freight was 205,745 TEU in 2024-25. None of those figures is a Pilbara tonne.
The short operating analog is one month of punctuality, not a year-over-year peak. Between July 2023 and June 2025, approximately 53.5 percent of North-South intermodal trains exited the ARTC network within 30 minutes of schedule. Reliability was lowest in January 2024, at approximately 40 percent, and highest in May 2025, at approximately 68.5 percent. The East-West ARTC component averaged approximately 57.3 percent, with a low in March 2025 at approximately 34.5 percent.
The equipment channel is imports of locomotive and rolling-stock parts. In 2024, Australia imported HS 8607 worth 205,534.21 thousand US dollars. China was 86,404.59 thousand US dollars, a calculated 42.0 percent. The partner table does not name Taiwan. Trainline 13 does not name China or Taiwan as an equipment origin.
The cyber baseline is the ACSC critical-infrastructure fact sheet for 2024-25, not a named railroad breach. ASD's ACSC responded to over 1,200 incidents. Transport, postal and warehousing was 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents. The guidance says operators should be able to isolate vital operational technology and enabling systems for 3 months. That sentence is guidance. It is not an observed Australian rail outage.
A China stop hits iron ore first. The calculated 85.3 percent quantity share uses 767,150,000,000 kilograms divided by 899,747,000,000 kilograms of HS 260111. Japan took 49,986,300,000 kilograms and Korea 48,481,400,000 kilograms. Other Asia, nes took 12,504,900,000 kilograms. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. The table has no row named Taiwan.
The Pilbara physical proxy in 2024-25 is Port Hedland at 569.8 million tonnes, up 0.8 percent from 565.2, and Dampier at 147.1 million tonnes, up 1.5 percent from 144.9. The export total of 734.3 million tonnes also includes Esperance at 3.8 million tonnes and Geraldton at 13.6 million tonnes. Esperance and Geraldton are not the Pilbara heavy-haul system. Aurizon's Yilgarn contract hauls up to 4.4 million tonnes a year from Koolyanobbing to Esperance. Karara ore travels by rail to Geraldton. Those are separate railways from the Pilbara owners.
Coal export ports in 2024-25 were Newcastle 146.20 million tonnes, Hay Point 96.17, Gladstone 64.29, Abbot Point 34.03, and Brisbane 4.96, a total of 345.65 million tonnes, down 0.74 percent from the previous year. Port Kembla was not available. These are port tonnes. They are not Aurizon above-rail tonnes and they are not an interstate gross tonne.
The China coal slice is the calculated 23.2 percent of HS 2701 quantity. China's value was 8,278,433.47 thousand US dollars. India's value was larger, at 8,772,249.71 thousand US dollars, on a smaller quantity of 41,811,900,000 kilograms. Korea was 32,124,100,000 kilograms. Japan remains the largest quantity and the largest value. Continuing buyers are those named rows. Other Asia, nes at 26,910,400,000 kilograms is not Taiwan, and the coal table does not name Taiwan.
Aurizon's own coal book is a third series. In 2024-25 Aurizon above-rail coal was 192.2 million tonnes, of which the Central Queensland Coal Network was 133.7 million tonnes and New South Wales plus southeast Queensland was 58.5 million tonnes. Hunter Valley and Illawarra inside that New South Wales book were 53.4 million tonnes. Below-rail tonnes hauled by all operators on the Aurizon-managed Central Queensland Coal Network were 208.0 million tonnes. Hunter Valley and Illawarra at 53.4 million tonnes is one operator's above-rail figure. It is not Newcastle's 146.20 million tonnes and it is not the whole Hunter railway.
The freight chapter of the Australian Infrastructure and Transport Statistics Yearbook 2025 says the domestic freight task reached its highest point in 2024-25 at 786 billion tonne kilometres, and that rail transported approximately 447 billion tonne kilometres of freight while road accounted for approximately 253 billion tonne kilometres. The same page says the highest volume domestic freight route is iron ore transported by rail in the Pilbara region, and that the next largest individual flow is coal carried by rail in Central Queensland and the Hunter Valley. Those are national task and route descriptions. They are not a China share, and they are not multiplied by the calculated 85.3 percent.
Aurizon's FY2026 results presentation prints company volumes beside the FY2025 figures that Trainline also carries. Coal total volumes were 192.0 million tonnes in FY2026 beside 192.2 million tonnes in FY2025. Network total volumes were 212.5 million tonnes in FY2026 beside 208.0 million tonnes in FY2025, and the page prints 2 percent. Containerised freight total volumes were 236,866 TEU in FY2026 beside 205,745 TEU in FY2025, and the page prints 15 percent. The footnote on the containerised row says the series does not include Queensland hook-and-pull services or a Bulk mineral sands contract hauled by National Interstate. Coal contracted volume for FY2027 stands at 211 million tonnes, a reduction of 20 million tonnes compared with the prior year. Those prints are company volumes and a company contract. They are not a war forecast and not a China share of the tonnes. Explicit Pilbara rail tonnes stay unpublished.
Interstate intermodal does not carry the Pilbara task. Gross tonnes on the ARTC and Arc Infrastructure interstate networks include empty wagons and locomotives, weight freight by the share of the segment travelled, and exclude coal. Intermodal-designated tonnes are capital-city to capital-city trains, including regional or export traffic attached en route. Some Pacific National and SCT Logistics intermodal-designated trains also carry steel. Acacia Ridge-Casino intermodal was 5.12 million gross tonnes in 2024-25, against 5.35 in 2023-24, with non-intermodal on that combined segment at 0.06 and the segment total at 5.18.
A dispatch outage is the path that stops the domestic interstate train even though that train has no Chinese buyer. The ACSC fact sheet says state-sponsored actors use living-off-the-land techniques, and that access to a critical-infrastructure network could degrade confidence, disrupt availability, or cause destructive effects. Transport, postal and warehousing accounted for 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents, behind financial and insurance services at 32 percent. The fact sheet does not assign those incidents to rail. No named Australian railroad outage was on the pages opened. The measured railroad incident that was opened is an alleged DDoS in October 2022 on one of Danish operator DSB's ICT service providers, which disrupted DSB operations for several hours by affecting access to a key safety-critical IT system. Railway Gazette says 21 incidents targeting the railway sector were analysed, out of a total of 98 cyber attacks, for January 2021 to October 2022. The exploitability limit is an alleged supplier DDoS of several hours, not remote brake-command injection.
Short-horizon operating analog: North-South intermodal reliability was lowest in January 2024, at approximately 40 percent of trains exiting within 30 minutes of schedule. The window average was approximately 53.5 percent. This is one month, not a year-over-year peak. The same quarter's path level is 118 scheduled intermodal services per week in the October 2025 timetable.
Second one-month punctuality marker: East-West reliability was lowest in March 2025, at approximately 34.5 percent, against a window average of approximately 57.3 percent. No fuel-price week was opened for Australian rail, so this band does not invent a diesel percent.
Full-year volume marker: Trainline prints a 16.97 percent decline in Aurizon above-rail bulk freight, to 55.3 million tonnes. The China iron-ore marker at this horizon remains a calculated 85.3 percent of HS 260111 quantity, and the China coal marker remains a calculated 23.2 percent of HS 2701 quantity. Pilbara rail tonnes stay unpublished.
Wave 1 direct is the Pilbara iron ore railways, Central Queensland Coal Network below-rail, Hunter Valley coal haulage, and ARTC interstate dispatch and signalling. Wave 1 indirect is interstate intermodal operators, Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane terminals, and continuing coal export shippers. They stop when the railway they use stops. The ACSC fact sheet is the authority for a transport-sector target, and it does not name these railroads. This ordering is a planning model.
Wave 2 direct is locomotive and wagon parts importers. China is a calculated 42.0 percent of HS 8607 import value, and the fetched table does not name Taiwan. Enterprise order systems fail after train control. This ordering is a planning model.
Wave 3 direct is TasRail and other small freight operators. TasRail's published task is 498,314,404 net tonne kilometres. They run trains, so the hit is direct, and they sit behind the national bulk and interstate cores. This ordering is a planning model.
origin sharepercent
a calculated 85.3 percent
WITS UN Comtradea calculated 23.2 percent
WITS UN Comtradea calculated 42.0 percent
WITS UN Comtradeon timepercent
at approximately 40 percent
BITRE Trainline 13at approximately 34.5 percent
BITRE Trainline 13volume changepercent
a 16.97 percent decline
BITRE Trainline 13weekly pathsservices per week
118 scheduled intermodal services per week
BITRE Trainline 13export tonnesmillion tonnes
569.8 million tonnes
BITRE Trainline 13operator teuTEU
205,745 TEU
BITRE Trainline 13236,866 TEU
Aurizon FY2026 resultson time averagepercent
approximately 53.5 percent
BITRE Trainline 13approximately 57.3 percent
BITRE Trainline 13Split the railway into export bulk and interstate intermodal before any tonne is reused. Port Hedland at 569.8 million tonnes is not Acacia Ridge-Casino at 5.12 million gross tonnes, and neither is the 118 scheduled intermodal services per week.
Put ARTC interstate dispatch and signalling on the week-1 watch. The stress analog already printed is January 2024, at approximately 40 percent of North-South intermodal trains within 30 minutes of schedule. Isolate-vital-OT guidance on the ACSC sheet is for 3 months and is a preparedness step.
Watch the China iron-ore book against the calculated 85.3 percent of HS 260111 quantity, and the China coal book against the calculated 23.2 percent. Keep Japan, India, and Korea coal nominations in the continuing file.
Watch scheduled capital-city intermodal paths against 118 per week, and remember a paid path is not a train run.
Rank HS 8607 inventory against China's 86,404.59 thousand US dollars and the United States, Germany, India, and Korea rows. Do not treat Other Asia, nes as Taiwan.
Keep the Hunter Valley and the Central Queensland Coal Network on separate balances. Newcastle port exports were 146.20 million tonnes. Aurizon Hunter Valley and Illawarra above-rail were 53.4 million tonnes. Central Queensland below-rail was 208.0 million tonnes.
North-South intermodal trains exiting within 30 minutes of schedule, monthly percent. Act when the North-South share of intermodal trains exiting within 30 minutes of schedule prints below 40 percent in a month. The January 2024 low was at approximately 40 percent, inside a window that averaged approximately 53.5 percent. The 40 percent line is a planning line. BITRE does not publish this covenant.
Scheduled capital-city intermodal services per week. Act when scheduled capital-city intermodal services print below 118 per week. The 118 figure is the October 2025 working-timetable count, and it counts paid paths rather than trains run. The 118 line is a planning line. BITRE does not publish this covenant.
Aurizon above-rail coal, million tonnes. Act when Aurizon above-rail coal prints below 192.2 million tonnes. That figure is the 2024-25 haul. The 192.2 million tonne line is a planning line at the latest observed level. Aurizon and BITRE do not publish this covenant, and the figure is not the China slice.
Separate rail tonnes, which are unpublished, from the port proxy led by Port Hedland at 569.8 million tonnes.
Identify the contract tonnes that match the calculated 85.3 percent China quantity share without multiplying that share by the port total.
Keep train control isolated under the ACSC step of for 3 months.
Keep Japan, India, and Korea coal on the railway.
Remove only the China slice, using the calculated 23.2 percent as the national quantity marker, not as Aurizon's share.
Report Hunter Valley and Central Queensland on their own tonnes.
Run the domestic timetable of 118 scheduled intermodal services per week as the base case.
Treat a North-South month below 40 percent as the reliability tripwire.
Do not restate a Pilbara tonne as an intermodal tonne.
Cover the HS 8607 China row of 86,404.59 thousand US dollars.
Use the United States, Germany, India, and Korea rows as the named alternates.
Leave Taiwan off the equipment file. The fetched table does not name it.
Scheduled capital-city intermodal services per week October 2025 printed 118 scheduled intermodal services per week, down 19 from February 2024. The series is a timetable of paid paths. It is the weekly count that exists, and it is not a weekly tonne.
North-South and East-West intermodal exit within 30 minutes of schedule The July 2023 to June 2025 averages were approximately 53.5 percent and approximately 57.3 percent. The one-month lows were approximately 40 percent in January 2024 and approximately 34.5 percent in March 2025. A monthly print is the early operating signal. No weekly reliability series was printed.
Iron ore exports by port, and the China share of HS 260111 Port Hedland at 569.8 million tonnes is the Pilbara proxy. The China quantity share is a calculated 85.3 percent of calendar 2024 non-agglomerated exports. A weekly Pilbara rail weighbridge was not published.
Coal exports by port and Aurizon coal tonnes, beside the China quantity share Newcastle was 146.20 million tonnes. Aurizon coal was 192.2 million tonnes. China's HS 2701 quantity share is a calculated 23.2 percent. The three figures stay on three lines.
Reports of critical-infrastructure cyber incidents in transport Transport, postal and warehousing was 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents in the ACSC 2024-25 fact sheet. The hotline printed on that sheet is 1300 CYBER1. A railroad-only incident series was not printed.
Observed baselines are Trainline 13, the three WITS partner tables, and the ACSC critical-infrastructure fact sheet. Scenario inferences are the wave order, the ability of Japan, India, and Korea to take China's coal tonnes, and any claim that a 2027 punctuality path will match January 2024.
The unpublished primaries for this country are national above-rail tonnages since 2015-16 and explicit Pilbara rail traffic. Trainline uses port exports as a proxy and says the ore is generally railed. A 2024-25 Hunter Valley actual tonne is not in the prose, which prints 165.1 million tonnes as the high, 146.5 million tonnes as the low, an average of approximately 90.5 percent of plan, and a repeated 146.5 tonnes that drops the word million. Qube and SCT volumes are unpublished. Australian grain rail tonnes are unpublished. An Australian diesel week for rail was not opened. The ACSC costs of 80,850 and 202,700 dollars are all-business figures.
Calculated figures use two printed inputs and are labeled. Iron-ore quantity uses 767,150,000,000 divided by 899,747,000,000, which is 85.3 percent. Coal quantity uses 83,987,300,000 divided by 361,958,000,000, which is 23.2 percent. HS 8607 value uses 86,404.59 divided by 205,534.21, which is 42.0 percent. No China share is multiplied by a port tonne. No change is calculated from the approximately punctuality figures. The 16.97 percent decline and the 29.56 percent TEU rise are printed by Trainline, not recalculated here.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgbitre.gov.au
Taiwan is not on the fetched partner tables for iron ore, coal, or locomotive parts. Other Asia, nes is a separate row on each of those tables and is not Taiwan. The U.S. end-of-train advisory is not used as an Australian installed base. Trainline does not name China or Taiwan. Interstate gross tonnes are not export tonnes.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgbitre.gov.au
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pilbara iron ore railways | Chinese iron-ore demand stops, and the rail tonnes themselves are unpublished, so the loss is read from the port-export proxy. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | |
| Central Queensland Coal Network below-rail | The network keeps hauling coal for buyers other than China, and the China slice is a minority of Australian coal exports. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | |
| Hunter Valley coal haulage | Hunter Valley coal haulage loses the China slice and keeps the larger Japan, India, and Korea book. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | |
| ARTC interstate dispatch and signalling | A dispatch or signalling outage stops domestic interstate trains that do not depend on a Chinese buyer. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | |
| Interstate intermodal operators | Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane and east-west intermodal is domestic general freight and is not the Pilbara railway. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | |
| Melbourne-Sydney-Brisbane intermodal terminals | Terminal lifts follow the interstate paths, not the iron-ore port tonnes. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | |
| Continuing coal export shippers | Japan, India, and Korea coal cargoes can still move if the railway and the port stay up. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | |
| Locomotive and wagon parts importers | China is the largest named supplier of locomotive and rolling-stock parts, and the fetched table does not name Taiwan. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | |
| TasRail and small freight operators | The small-operator task is a later direct cyber exposure, and its intermodal TEU is a domestic Tasmanian series. | 12+ months | Wave 3 (direct) |