chinese-war.com

A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Transportation: Air Cargo and Aviation — Australia (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the United States briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

Chinese airlines stop, Qantas keeps the non-China long-haul, domestic trunk stays up

  1. China trade stopping removes the year-ended July 2026 China book of 3,696,189 passengers and 163,144.7 tonnes. It removes the Chinese-carrier passenger operation into Australia. It removes 4,703.4 tonnes on the Qantas Airways China row. It does not remove the 60.69 million domestic regular public transport passengers, which are a different series and a different year-end.

    bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.au

  2. Freight that can still move is the non-China rows. Singapore was 19.3 percent of international freight, on 214,079.7 tonnes. Hong Kong freight was 122,069.9 tonnes. Calculated from the workbook total, Hong Kong was 11.0 percent of international freight. United States freight was 93,775.7 tonnes. Calculated, the USA was 8.5 percent of international freight. New Zealand freight was 88,878.6 tonnes. Hong Kong is not inside China.

    bitre.gov.au

  3. Taiwan is slowed, not stopped, and it is a small named lane. Taiwan passengers were 468,091 and Taiwan freight was 17,422.3 tonnes. Calculated from those totals, Taiwan passengers were 1.0 percent of international passengers and Taiwan was 1.6 percent of international freight. Table IV of the monthly publication does not name Taiwan. The other-countries residual of 10,110,726 passengers is not the Taiwan count.

    bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.au

  4. The cash path on flights that keep operating is fuel, and the only weekly spot series opened is the U.S. Gulf Coast. The spot price rose 20.9 percent in the one-week analog. From 2.678 dollars a gallon to 4.242 in the week ending 17 June 2022, the accumulated analog is 58.4 percent. On the monthly series, February 2022 was 2.682 and June 2022 was 4.120. Calculated from those two monthly prints, the monthly analog is 53.6 percent. No Australian into-plane price was on the pages opened.

    eia.goveia.gov

  5. The observed Australian cyber path is a customer-data event, not a departure-control stop. The call-centre platform incident had no impact on flight operations. A conflict wave that does hit departure control is an inference. The opened advisory that describes pre-positioning is about U.S. critical infrastructure, even though the Australian Cyber Security Centre is a co-author.

    investor.qantas.comcisa.gov

  6. In the second half of financial year 2025/26 the Middle East conflict had a net Group impact on Underlying EBIT of approximately $420 million, driven by fuel. That is the half-year earnings analog for a fuel shock on a network that keeps flying. It is not the February-to-March passenger analog.

    investor.qantas.com

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

  • Short-horizon traffic analog: international passengers fell 38.5 percent from 2,805,429 in February 2020 to 1,725,729 in March 2020. China passengers fell 83.6 percent from 382,586 in January 2020 to 62,643 in February 2020. April 2020 international passengers were 75,306. These are month prints, not a full-year peak.

    bitre.gov.au

  • Short-horizon price analog: Gulf Coast jet fuel rose from 2.678 dollars a gallon in the week ending 25 February 2022 to 3.237 in the week ending 4 March 2022. Calculated from those two prints, the spot price rose 20.9 percent. The series is a U.S. spot price. It is not an Australian into-plane price, and it is not the full-year $610 million fuel bill.

    eia.gov

  • Short-horizon airport cyber analog: volunteers assisted travelers in the first 10 days of the outage at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport. Most airline systems continued to operate. The ($15) million figure measures the call-centre and third-party customer-servicing cost recognised outside Underlying profit before tax, and that incident had no impact on flight operations. Wave order is a planning model.

    portseattle.orginvestor.qantas.com

1–6 months

  • Half-year earnings analog: the Middle East conflict had a net Group impact on Underlying EBIT of approximately $420 million in the second half of financial year 2025/26. The accumulated weekly spot analog, from 2.678 to 4.242 dollars a gallon, is a calculated 58.4 percent. The monthly analog is 53.6 percent.

    investor.qantas.comeia.goveia.gov

12+ months

  • Full-year fuel analog: the fuel cost impact was $610 million, net of approximately $400 million from hedging. The structural volume hole, if China stays closed, remains 163,144.7 freight tonnes and 3,696,189 passengers. Domestic regular public transport passengers of 60.69 million are the book that is still there, on a different year-end.

    investor.qantas.combitre.gov.aubitre.gov.au

Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is departure and dispatch systems at the Chinese airlines that operate the China book, at Qantas international, and at the international airports. Wave 1 indirect is the domestic trunk, because it stops only if it shares those systems, and the handlers and forwarders, because they stop when the China flight stops. The fetched Qantas incident did not do this. The measured airport cyber duration is a U.S. terminal-systems outage, the first 10 days of the outage, and most airline systems continued to operate. The ordering is a planning inference. Wave order is a planning model. The opened Volt Typhoon page is about U.S. critical infrastructure and does not assign the week.

investor.qantas.combitre.gov.aucisa.govportseattle.org

Wave 2

Wave 2 is the commercial layer behind flights that can still operate. Into-plane fuel is the price consequence and is indirect. Loyalty and contact-centre systems are the direct path that matches the 2 July 2025 incident. Aircraft lessors are indirect. This ordering is a planning inference.

investor.qantas.comeia.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 is the regional airport set. Regional and remote routes carried 24.1 million passengers in 2025-26. A direct hit on those smaller airport systems is later than a gateway or a Chinese-airline dispatch failure. This ordering is a planning inference.

bitre.gov.aucisa.gov

Country exposure

freight sharepercent

passenger sharepercent

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

volume changepercent

au earnings impactmillion Australian dollars

Downstream scale

workforcepeople

Operating prints

ratespercent

ask mixpercent

What to do

Day 7

  • Separate Chinese-carrier China flights from Qantas and Jetstar non-China long-haul and from the domestic trunk. The China passenger book is 3,696,189. Qantas Airways China passengers are 0. New Zealand, Singapore, Indonesia, the United States, and Hong Kong stay on the continuing international book unless a later order says otherwise.

    bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.au

  • Staff the call-centre and loyalty path and the departure-control path as different drills. The fetched incident did not stop flights. A departure-control failure would. The opened U.S. infrastructure advisory does not set the Australian week.

    investor.qantas.comcisa.gov

Day 30

  • Remark fuel against the one-week jet analog, and label it as Gulf Coast spot. The spot price rose 20.9 percent. Do not use the full-year fuel cost impact of $610 million as the first-month case. The half-year earnings analog of approximately $420 million is the next band.

    eia.govinvestor.qantas.com

  • Count China freight that is still moving against the planning half of 81,572.35 tonnes. The year-ended baseline is 163,144.7 tonnes. Outbound is 50,464.8 tonnes. Do not treat Guangzhou–Sydney at 33,404 tonnes as the country total.

    bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.au

Day 90

  • Test whether Singapore, Hong Kong, and the United States row can take freight that lost a Chinese uplift. Singapore was 19.3 percent of international freight. Taiwan remains a slowed lane at 1.6 percent of freight, not a closed one. Domestic trunk flying is not the substitute for that freight.

    bitre.gov.au

What to watch

By role

Chinese airlines and the airports they use

  • Park China-port passenger sectors. The entire 3,696,189 passenger book is on those carriers.

  • Keep a separate roster for any non-China fifth-freedom flying that is not on the China row.

bitre.gov.au

Qantas Group international and domestic

  • Do not cut the domestic trunk because China passengers stop. Those passengers are not on the Qantas Airways China row.

  • Remark the fuel book to a one-week 20.9 percent Gulf Coast case before using the half-year case of approximately $420 million.

  • Drill departure control separately from the call-centre platform that was breached on 2 July 2025.

bitre.gov.aueia.govinvestor.qantas.com

Freight forwarders and handlers

  • Split waybills into China, Taiwan, Hong Kong, Singapore, and the United States before week 1.

  • Pre-clear Singapore as the largest freight country already in the year-ended file.

  • Do not quote a perishable share of the 50,464.8 outbound China tonnes. That split was not published.

bitre.gov.au

Lessors

  • Reprice tails whose only employment is a China port.

  • Leave the 372 in-service aircraft on the domestic and non-China roster, and treat the 12 Project Sunrise aircraft as a fleet-supply constraint from calendar year 2027, not as current lost rent.

investor.qantas.com

Weekly checks

What is not known

Working papers: node summary
NodePrimary impactTime horizonCyber waveEvidence
Chinese airlines serving AustraliaChina passenger flights stop, and Chinese carriers hold the entire China passenger book.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)BITRE Table 1 China airline rows; BITRE Table IV passengers
Qantas Group internationalNon-China long-haul keeps flying, and the fetched call-centre incident did not stop flight operations.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)Qantas Annual Report 2026 ASKs, EBIT, and cyber note
Domestic trunk airlinesMajor-city domestic flying continues, and it stops only if a shared departure system or the fuel bill fails.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)BITRE domestic aviation and cities-and-regions pages
International airportsSydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, and Perth lose China uplifts and keep New Zealand, Singapore, and United States flights.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)BITRE Table V international airport passengers
Regional airportsRegional and remote domestic passengers are outside the China uplift and are a later systems target.1-12 monthsWave 3 (direct)BITRE cities and regions; Hobart international passengers
Belly and freighter handlersHandlers lose China freight tonnes, including the integrator tonnes, and keep the Singapore freight book.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)BITRE Table 1 China and Singapore freight
Freight forwardersChina air waybills stop, and forwarders still have a Singapore freight share larger than the China share.0-6 monthsWave 1 (indirect)BITRE Table 1 freight by country
Into-plane fuelJet fuel price is the cash shock on domestic and long-haul flights that keep operating.0-6 monthsWave 2 (indirect)EIA Gulf Coast weekly jet fuel; Qantas half-year fuel impact
Loyalty and contact-centre systemsA call-centre platform breach is a customer-data cost, and the fetched incident did not ground the airline.0-6 monthsWave 2 (direct)Qantas Annual Report 2026 cyber note
Aircraft lessorsLease cash follows utilisation of the in-service fleet, and the next ultra-long-haul deliveries are a fleet-supply constraint.1-12 monthsWave 2 (indirect)Qantas fleet count and Project Sunrise entry plan

Sources