A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
The listed book that was opened is an office-and-industrial platform, not a national apartment REIT. Dexus manages a portfolio valued at 50.1 billion dollars, with a 14.5 billion dollar listed portfolio and a further 35.6 billion dollars in funds management. The labeled Dexus office portfolio is 9.7 billion dollars. The labeled Dexus industrial portfolio is 3.6 billion dollars. Dexus states that occupancy of 92.3% remains well above the market average. The market average was 85.7 percent.
Industrial occupancy by income was 96.2%. Occupancy by area on that industrial book was 97.4 percent. Office occupancy by area was 91.7 percent. Average office incentives were 26.8 percent. Industrial incentives on the leased-area line were 16.3 percent. Look-through gearing was 31.7 percent. These are 30 June 2025 portfolio prints.
The large residential exposure is a foreign-ownership register plus a screening rule, not a Sun-Belt apartment count. In 2023-24 the register recorded 6,265 new residential-land acquisitions. The page prints that foreign persons acquired 0.8 percent of residential dwellings, from 4,092 foreign dwelling acquisitions and 538,861 ABS residential dwelling acquisitions. People's Republic of China was 2,007 interests and 2,048.5 million dollars.
From 1 April 2025 to 30 June 2029, foreign investors are generally prohibited from purchasing established dwellings. Limited exceptions apply. Foreign investors generally need to notify the Australian Taxation Office before acquiring residential land, regardless of value. Vacant residential land is generally conditional on construction being completed within 4 years.
China is the majority supplier of lifts into Australia. In 2024, imports of HS 842810 lifts and skip hoists were 203,211.95 thousand dollars from the world and 124,270.66 thousand dollars from China. China's calculated share of those lift and skip-hoist imports was 61.2 percent. Italy was 30,065.52 thousand dollars. The heading is lifts and skip hoists, which is broader than passenger elevators already standing in buildings. Australia did not import this heading from TWN in 2024.
The short rent analog is one month, not a year peak. Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, unchanged since May 2026. In monthly terms, rents rose 0.2% in September. Excluding the Commonwealth Rent Assistance increase, rents would have risen 0.3 percent over the month. Assistance was indexed on 20 September 2026.
The week-1 building path is operational technology and the controller. ACSC principle 4 is to segment and segregate operational technology from all other networks. The same CISA advisory used for the product case covers Siemens APOGEE and TALON building automation, with BACnet versions prior to 3.5.5. The ACSC page is not a count of Australian buildings, and the advisory does not print outage days.
A China stop hits two Australian ledgers that are printed. One is new lifts, where China is a calculated 61.2 percent. The other is foreign residential acquisitions, where China was 2,007 of 6,265 interests. Calculated, that count share is 32.0 percent. The value share, 2,048.5 million dollars divided by 6,434.3 million dollars, is 31.8 percent. Neither figure is a listed office capitalization weight.
Established-dwelling purchases by foreign persons are already generally prohibited through 30 June 2029. A conflict does not create that rule. It sits on top of it. New dwellings and vacant land remain the channel the guidance says policy wants, with the 4-year construction condition on vacant land. Of the 6,265 acquisitions, 333 had been sold or the holder had ceased to be foreign by 30 June 2024.
Air-conditioning machines are not China-led. World imports were 1,446,630.29 thousand dollars. Thailand was 720,692.27 thousand dollars, a calculated 49.8 percent. China was 402,813.00 thousand dollars, a calculated 27.8 percent. Boards and panels under HS 853710, a heading the page truncates and that is broader than building switchgear, were 820,018.45 thousand dollars from the world and 216,889.19 thousand dollars from China, a calculated 26.4 percent. The United States was 176,894.69 thousand dollars, a calculated 21.6 percent.
Taiwan is a customs zero on the three building headings that were opened, and a small residential-register row that is not a controller share. Australia did not import lifts and skip hoists from TWN in 2024, did not import air-conditioning machines from TWN in 2024, and did not import HS 853710 boards and panels from TWN in 2024. On the register, Taiwan was 212 interests and 152.3 million dollars. Calculated, that is 3.4 percent of 6,265 interests and 2.4 percent of 6,434.3 million dollars. Other Asia, nes on lifts was 9.90 thousand dollars and is not Taiwan.
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The domestic week-1 break is the building controller and the access network. Segmenting operational technology is the Australian principle. The product case is the credential flaw on APOGEE and TALON. Office occupancy of 92.3 percent and industrial occupancy of 96.2 percent are the income baselines that a closed building would stop earning. The CPI month is a separate price print.
Short-horizon price analog: in monthly terms, rents rose 0.2% in September. Excluding the Commonwealth Rent Assistance increase, rents would have risen 0.3 percent over the month. These are monthly prints, not a year-over-year peak. A counted day total for a building-system outage was not published.
No one-to-six-month rent index was on the CPI release. The in-year leasing costs that were printed are annual: average office incentives were 26.8 percent and industrial incentives were 16.3 percent, beside office effective like-for-like income growth of 2.0 percent.
Year price analog: Rental prices rose 3.6% in the 12 months to September 2026, and that twelve-month pace was unchanged since May 2026. Look-through gearing of 31.7 percent is the balance-sheet level beside that rent print, not a rent percent.
Wave 1 direct is the building controller and access network, using ICSA-22-349-16 and the ACSC rule to segment operational technology. Office, industrial, and apartment buildings are Wave 1 indirect because they stop when that path stops. This order is a planning model.
Wave 2 direct is property accounting, rent rolls, and ATO notification portals. Wave 2 indirect is facilities-contract systems, elevator and HVAC import ordering, and foreign-buyer settlement. The ACSC supply-chain principle is the reason the import node is in this wave rather than in the controller wave. This order is a planning model.
Wave 3 direct is the contractor tail inside the 319,717-business division. The cube does not size that tail. It is later than the controller. This order is a planning model.
lift import sharepercent
China's calculated share of those lift and skip-hoist imports was 61.2 percent.
WITS Australia imports of lifts and skip hoists, 2024, all partnersrent changepercent
rents rose 0.2% in September
ABS Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026Rental prices rose 3.6%
ABS Consumer Price Index, Australia, September 2026firm countcount
the division counted 319,717 businesses
ABS Counts of Australian Businesses, June 2022 to June 2026occupancypercent
occupancy of 92.3% remains well above the market
Dexus 2025 annual results presentationThe market average was 85.7 percent.
Dexus 2025 annual results presentationIndustrial occupancy by income was 96.2%.
Dexus 2025 annual results presentationSegment building-management and access networks from enterprise IT, which is ACSC principle 4. Check APOGEE and TALON controllers against version 3.5.5 and isolate them from the business network.
Read the monthly rent print before the annual one. In monthly terms, rents rose 0.2% in September. The ex-assistance month is 0.3 percent. Office and industrial occupancy stay on their own lines.
List open lift orders against the calculated 61.2 percent China share, and air-conditioning orders against Thailand at a calculated 49.8 percent and China at a calculated 27.8 percent. Do not put a Taiwan quantity on those orders. The TWN pages are zeros.
Separate established-dwelling files, which are generally prohibited through 30 June 2029, from new-dwelling and vacant-land files. Confirm the ATO notification regardless of value.
Re-cut office income at 92.3 percent occupancy and 26.8 percent incentives apart from industrial income at 96.2 percent occupancy and 16.3 percent incentives. Watch gearing against the 31.7 percent look-through print as a planning line, not as a published covenant.
Monthly CPI rents, percent change. Act when monthly rents rise by more than 0.3 percent. The 0.3 percent line is the September 2026 print excluding Commonwealth Rent Assistance. It is a planning line. The ABS does not publish this tripwire. The published month including the assistance indexation was 0.2 percent.
Office occupancy by income. Act when office occupancy by income prints below 92.3 percent. That rate is the Dexus print at 30 June 2025. It is a planning line, not a loan covenant.
Industrial occupancy by income. Act when industrial occupancy by income prints below 96.2 percent. That rate is the Dexus print at 30 June 2025. It is a planning line, not a loan covenant.
Chinese residential interests on the register. Act when a subsequent register prints fewer than 2,007 Chinese residential interests. The 2,007 line is the 2023-24 register print. It is a planning line. The ATO does not publish this floor. Half of 2,007 is 1,003.5 and is not the line.
Keep two occupancy packs. Do not blend 92.3 percent office occupancy with 96.2 percent industrial occupancy.
Segment building controls in the first week and test manual access for contractors.
Treat 31.7 percent look-through gearing as the planning line for leverage, not as a disclosed covenant.
Apply ACSC segmentation to vendor laptops and building-management workstations.
Do not assume a sized contractor census. The opened count is 319,717 businesses in the whole division.
Read facilities-scale cash off Defence and Social Infrastructure revenue of 2.4 billion dollars, and label that segment as broader than janitorial.
Re-source lifts away from the calculated 61.2 percent China share toward Italy and the other European names on the table.
Re-source air-conditioning toward Thailand first.
Do not budget a Taiwan customs gap on these headings. Budget an unknown installed-base gap.
Stop established-dwelling purchases that the guidance generally prohibits through 30 June 2029.
File the ATO notification regardless of value.
Watch the China count against the 2,007 planning line when the next register prints.
ABS monthly rents. The September 2026 print is 0.2 percent, and 0.3 percent excluding Commonwealth Rent Assistance. The twelve-month print of 3.6 percent is the slow companion, not the week-1 number.
Office occupancy against 92.3 percent and industrial occupancy by income against 96.2 percent. Keep the 85.7 percent CBD market average as the outside comparison for office only.
Controller segmentation status and version status against 3.5.5. The pages do not give a count of Australian sites.
Foreign residential pipeline against the 2,007 China interests and against the established-dwelling prohibition. A later register is the measurement. The 2023-24 register is the baseline, not a weekly series.
Observed baselines are the pages listed in the sources. Scenario inferences are the wave order, the speed of moving lift orders from China to Italy, and any claim that a 2027 rent path will match the September 2026 CPI prints.
The unpublished primary is the installed share of Chinese or Taiwanese elevators, HVAC controls, and switchgear in the standing stock. The 2024 customs flow is not that stock. The second unpublished figure is a counted number of days for a named building-management or access-control outage. The ACSC page and ICSA-22-349-16 print no such days. The Johnson Controls figure is a foreign vendor-IT dollar of approximately 27 million dollars, and the article does not print days of an Australian building outage. None are invented. Search of the opened ACSC principles page, the CISA advisory, and that article found no Australian building-system duration. The Treasury foreign-investment transparency portal returned a script shell, so approval proposal counts and approval dollars are not cited. The business-counts cube has no industry-by-employment-size cross for this division. A Sydney-versus-Melbourne numeric split was not cleanly labeled in the Dexus text that was read, so none is stated. An earlier compliance snippet that put the established-dwelling end date at 31 March 2027 was not the page used. The page that was opened says 30 June 2029.
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Calculated figures use two printed inputs and one-decimal rounding. The lift share uses 124,270.66 against 203,211.95. The air-conditioning shares use 720,692.27 and 402,813.00 against 1,446,630.29. The board shares use 216,889.19 and 176,894.69 against 820,018.45. The China count share uses 2,007 against 6,265. The China value share uses 2,048.5 against 6,434.3. The Taiwan shares use 212 against 6,265 and 152.3 against 6,434.3. The Victoria share uses 2,606 against 6,265. The New South Wales share uses 985 against 6,265. Half of 2,007 is 1,003.5 and is not a trigger. The trigger uses the printed 2,007. The 0.8 percent foreign dwelling share is printed, not recalculated.
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Register dollars and foreign-investment approval dollars are different concepts and are not averaged. HS headings are broader than the building use. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. National employment-size counts in the business cube are not assigned to real estate. The ACSC page is not a building-specific incident report.
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Office buildings | CBD office income starts at 92.3 percent occupancy, above an 85.7 percent market average, with incentives of 26.8 percent. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | Dexus FY25 results presentation |
| Industrial buildings | Industrial occupancy by income was 96.2 percent, with lower incentives than office, and the book is 11.7 percent under-rented. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | Dexus FY25 industrial portfolio |
| Apartment buildings | The residential book is foreign acquisitions at 0.8 percent of dwelling transfers and a monthly rent print of 0.2 percent, not a listed apartment-REIT occupancy. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | ATO register and ABS CPI rents |
| Facilities contracts | Defence and Social Infrastructure revenue declined by 7 percent to 2.4 billion dollars, so the facilities-scale cash line is that segment, not an unpublished contractor census. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | ABS business counts and ACSC segmentation |
| Building systems | Affected APOGEE and TALON controllers can leak credentials, and Australian guidance is to treat the supply chain for operational technology as a security problem. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | CISA ICSA-22-349-16 and ACSC principle 5 |
| Access control and building-management systems | Segment and segregate operational technology from all other networks, because access control is the path into the building. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | ACSC operational technology principles |
| Elevator and HVAC import supply | China is a calculated 61.2 percent of lift imports, while air-conditioning imports are Thailand-led at a calculated 49.8 percent. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | WITS 2024 HS 842810 and HS 8415 |
| Property accounting and rent rolls | Rent rolls and foreign-ownership notifications can stop while office occupancy is still 92.3 percent on the last print. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | FIRB residential guidance and Dexus occupancy |
| Janitorial and trade contractors | The trade tail sits inside a division of 319,717 businesses whose employment-size split was not in the cube, so a later outage has no sized contractor count. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | ABS Counts of Australian Businesses |
| Foreign-buyer settlement | China's 2,007 residential interests are the settlement flow at risk, on top of a general ban on established dwellings through 30 June 2029. | 0-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | ATO register and foreigninvestment.gov.au guidance |