A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Oil, Gas, and LNG — Australia (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the United States briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

Australia exports the molecules and imports the fuels. In 2024-25, 73.8 percent of domestic natural gas production was exported and 95.7 percent of crude oil production was exported. In the same year, 80.8 percent of refined product consumption was met by imports, down from 81.1 percent in 2023-24. Domestic refineries imported about two thirds of their feedstock.
energy.gov.au
The LNG cash book in 2025-26 is 78.0 million tonnes and a nominal A$55,361 million, with a real value of A$57,245 million. The nominal unit value is A$13.5 per gigajoule and 9.6 US dollars per million Btu. The infographic prints that 80 percent of Australian LNG is sold to Japan, China and Korea, and around three-quarters is sold on long-term contracts.
industry.gov.au
Country dollars after 2022-23 are confidential. The last published split, in A$ million, is Japan 34,508, China 19,833, South Korea 18,310, Taiwan 12,070, and a total of 92,237. Calculated shares of that total are Japan 37.4 percent, China 21.5 percent, South Korea 19.9 percent, and Taiwan 13.1 percent. Japan, China, and Korea together are a calculated 78.8 percent of that older total, which is consistent with the later combined 80 percent print and is not a current China-only share.
industry.gov.au
Crude and condensate are a smaller export book with named continuing buyers. The 2024-25 infographic prints 10.7 billion dollars exported and 41 percent by value to Singapore and South Korea, with around two-thirds from the Carnarvon Basin. Table 7.1 prints 2025-26 exports of 247 thousand barrels a day and a real value of A$10,884 million.
industry.gov.au
The domestic petrol system is an import system. Motorists bought over 16 billion litres of petrol in 2024. There were 8,096 retail fuel sites as at 30 June 2024. The 2 remaining domestic refineries are Ampol's Lytton and Viva Energy's Geelong. Imports were around 64 percent of petrol supply in 2023-24. Singapore was 51 percent of petrol imports, South Korea 25 percent, and Malaysia 12 percent.
accc.gov.au
June quarter 2026 stocks held under the minimum stockholding obligation were equivalent to 44 days for gasoline, 31 days for jet fuel, and 36 days for diesel. Average stocks were 1,870 megalitres of gasoline, 852 of kerosene, and 3,304 of diesel. Gasoline stocks were 119 percent above the reduced obligation.
dcceew.gov.au
The short price analog is weeks, not a year. The week to 20 February printed Brent at 73 US dollars a barrel and the week to 31 March printed 123. The calculated Brent rise is 68.5 percent. In the week to 24 June, weekly average Mogas 95 was around 94 Australian cents a litre, a decrease of 7 cents or around 7 percent from the previous week.
accc.gov.au

LNG revenue stops or diverts; petrol keeps arriving unless the ship or the terminal stops

China trade stopping hits LNG export value, not the petrol bowser's country of origin. The 2025-26 LNG book is 78.0 million tonnes and nominal A$55,361 million. The last China value DISR could publish is A$19,833 million in 2022-23, a calculated 21.5 percent of A$92,237 million. Table 16.3 marks 2023-24, 2024-25, and 2025-26 country cells as confidential.
industry.gov.au
Cargoes that can continue are the Japan and Korea portion of the combined North Asian sale, plus Taiwan's last published receipt. Japan was A$34,508 million and South Korea A$18,310 million in 2022-23, calculated at 37.4 percent and 19.9 percent. The current combined print is 80 percent of Australian LNG sold to Japan, China and Korea. The current China-only share inside that 80 percent is not published.
industry.gov.au
Domestic gas that does not need a Chinese buyer is already contracted. Woodside will supply 31.1 petajoules to Alcoa between 2027 and 2030. Chevron will supply Alinta Energy with 46 petajoules over 5 years from July 2027. Gas production in 2025-26 is 153.9 billion cubic metres, of which the eastern market is 52.1, the western market 82.8, and the northern market 18.2. One million tonnes of LNG is about 1.36 billion cubic metres.
industry.gov.au
Crude and condensate loadings that can continue are the Singapore and South Korea share. The infographic prints 41 percent by value to those two buyers in 2024-25, on a 10.7 billion dollar export book, and around two-thirds of production from the Carnarvon Basin. No China share of Australian crude is printed. Table 7.1 exports are 247 thousand barrels a day in 2025-26, and imports of crude and condensate are 186 thousand barrels a day.
industry.gov.au
Petrol keeps coming from Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia on the ACCC origin print. Four major wholesalers accounted for around 85 percent of monitored wholesale volumes, and the same four supplied around 88 percent of petrol. Around two-thirds of feedstock at domestic refineries is imported. A China stop does not, on these prints, remove the majority of the litre. A cyber outage at an import terminal or at Lytton or Geelong does.
accc.gov.au energy.gov.au
The stock buffer behind that litre is 44 days for gasoline in the June quarter 2026, against an importer baseline of 27 days and a temporary right to hold 20 percent less petrol and diesel until 31 January 2027. Compliance is volume, not days. The week-1 domestic path is an inference: a terminal, port, or refinery control outage draws that cover. No Australian terminal-outage day count was on the pages opened. The named refinery print that was opened is volume, not days: Ampol expects production of higher-value products to be approximately 150 ML lower in 4Q 2026.
dcceew.gov.au dcceew.gov.au cyber.gov.au marketindex.com.au
Taiwan in this industry is a customer in the last open year. Taiwan took A$12,070 million of Australian LNG in 2022-23, a calculated 13.1 percent of A$92,237 million. Sales to Taiwan are not an import dependency. The Australian HS 7304 seamless-pipe table and the HS 8481 valve table were opened, and neither has a partner named Taiwan. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. The U.S. preliminary page prints 239,959,689 kilograms of Taiwan OCTG, and that is a U.S. import, not an Australian content share.
industry.gov.au wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org trade.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon price analog: Brent was 73 US dollars a barrel in the week to 20 February and 123 in the week to 31 March. The calculated Brent rise is 68.5 percent. The one-week retail print in the same report was a decrease of around 7 percent in Mogas 95. Both are inside one quarter. A year-over-year peak is not this band.
accc.gov.au
Short-horizon physical analog: East-West pipeline repairs could take 3 to 5 weeks, and very large crude carriers carry about 2 million barrels. Australian terminal outage days were not printed. Gasoline cover of 44 days is a stock, not an outage length. The opened Australian refinery fact is approximately 150 ML lower higher-value production in 4Q 2026 at Lytton. Customer supply is not expected to be affected. No day count is inferred from the mid-November restart.
industry.gov.au dcceew.gov.au marketindex.com.au

1–6 months

Accumulated product analog: weekly average Mogas 95 to 24 June was around 26 Australian cents a litre higher than the week to 20 February, when the print was 68. The calculated Mogas change is 38 percent. That span is about four months.
accc.gov.au

12+ months

Long-horizon earnings: LNG real value is A$41,721 million in 2030-31 on the table, against A$57,245 million in 2025-26. Asian LNG spot real price in 2031 is 8.2 US dollars per million Btu on the outlook table, after a nominal 18.3 in 2026. Crude export volume on the table is 182 thousand barrels a day in 2030-31.
industry.gov.au

Wave 1

Wave 1 is the physical fuel and export system: LNG plants, crude export terminals, the two refineries, and fuel import terminals. LNG carriers and road tankers are Wave 1 indirect because they wait when the port or the rack is down. In FY2025-26, electricity, gas, water and waste services accounted for 17 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents. ASD's ACSC responded to 154 critical-infrastructure incidents. That share is the whole division, not a count of outages at an LNG plant or a fuel terminal. The week assignment remains planning inference. No Australian outage day count was fetched. The Lytton print of approximately 150 ML lower higher-value production is a refinery volume, not a cyber duration.

cyber.gov.au cyber.gov.au dcceew.gov.au marketindex.com.au

Wave 2

Wave 2 is enterprise commercial systems: fuel wholesalers, trading and scheduling, and trade finance and marine insurance, all direct. Domestic gas buyers are Wave 2 indirect because they lose molecules when the supplier's systems fail. This ordering is a planning inference.

cyber.gov.au accc.gov.au

Wave 3

Wave 3 is the distributed set: 8,096 retail fuel sites and oilfield service firms. ACSC took over 84,700 cybercrime reports in 2024-25. The small-business average cost was 56,600 dollars, all sectors. A site ransomware event is later than a terminal shutdown. This ordering is a planning inference.

cyber.gov.au accc.gov.au

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

80levelJapan-China-Korea LNG

80 percent of Australian LNG

DISR Resources and Energy Quarterly

41levelcrude value

41 percent by value

DISR Resources and Energy Quarterly

51levelSingapore petrol

Singapore was 51 percent

ACCC

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

68.5increase0-3 monthssix-week Brent

The calculated Brent rise is 68.5 percent

ACCC

7decline0-3 monthsone-week Mogas

around 7 percent

ACCC

38increase1-6 monthsfour-month Mogas

calculated Mogas change is 38 percent

ACCC

Downstream scale

sitessites

8,096levelretail fuel sites

8,096 retail fuel sites

ACCC

plantsplants

2leveldomestic refineries

2 remaining domestic refineries

ACCC

Operating prints

daysdays

44levelgasoline consumption cover

44 days for gasoline

DCCEEW

ratespercent

85levelfour-wholesaler petrol share

around 85 percent

ACCC

What to do

Day 7

List LNG cargoes nominated to China against the last published 21.5 percent of export value, and list cargoes that can still discharge in Japan or Korea.
industry.gov.au
Put import-terminal, port, and refinery control rooms on the week-1 watch. The stock behind them is 44 days for gasoline. ACSC's instruction to operators of critical infrastructure is to assume compromise.
dcceew.gov.au cyber.gov.au

Day 30

Confirm Singapore, South Korea, and Malaysia petrol stems are still lifting. Singapore was 51 percent of petrol imports. Confirm crude stems to Singapore and South Korea, the 41 percent by value.
accc.gov.au industry.gov.au
Watch weekly Brent against the 123 US dollar print and weekly Mogas against the around-7-percent one-week move.
accc.gov.au

Day 90

Test whether China LNG has a Japan or Korea home inside the long-term book. Existing contracts are respected into the mid-2030s, so a spot diversion is not the base case.
industry.gov.au
Check refiner operating commitments through 30 June 2027 and the temporary stock reduction through 31 January 2027. Both dates are inside a one-year planning window.
accc.gov.au dcceew.gov.au

What to watch

Weekly average Brent, US dollars a barrel. Act when weekly average Brent prints above 123 US dollars a barrel. That figure is the week-to-31-March print in the ACCC report of 26 June 2026, up from 73 in the week to 20 February. The 123 line is that print used as a planning line, not an ACCC covenant.
accc.gov.au
MSO gasoline consumption cover, days. Act when MSO gasoline consumption cover prints below 44 days. Forty-four days is the June quarter 2026 average. It is a planning line at that print. The legal importer baseline is 27 days, and a temporary 20 percent reduction runs to 31 January 2027. Those are different numbers.
dcceew.gov.au dcceew.gov.au
Weekly Mogas 95, percent change. Act when weekly average Mogas 95 rises by more than 7 percent in one week. Around 7 percent is the printed one-week decline into 24 June. Using 7 percent as a rise threshold is a planning line set against that weekly magnitude. The ACCC does not publish this tripwire.
accc.gov.au
China-destination LNG share and diversion time. Act when China-destination LNG is still above the last published 21.5 percent of LNG export value and has no Japan or Korea diversion inside 30 days. The 21.5 percent figure is calculated from A$19,833 million divided by A$92,237 million in 2022-23. Thirty days is a planning line. DISR publishes neither a current China share nor a diversion covenant.
industry.gov.au

By role

LNG producers

Separate Japan, Korea, Taiwan, and China nominations before week 1.
Do not apply the 2022-23 China share of 21.5 percent to the 2025-26 dollar total.
Treat the reservation scheme as a domestic-gas rule, not a cargo-diversion rule.

industry.gov.au

Refiners and import terminals

Run an outage case against 44 days of gasoline cover and the 20 percent temporary stock reduction.
Keep Singapore, Korea, and Malaysia stems on a continuing-origin list.
Hold the operating commitment through 30 June 2027 if the fuel-security payment matters.

dcceew.gov.au accc.gov.au dcceew.gov.au

Fuel wholesalers and retailers

Map the four-company wholesale layer, around 85 percent of monitored volume, as a national scheduling risk.
Stage a manual point-of-sale path for sites inside the 8,096 count.
Watch the one-week Mogas print against the 7 percent planning line.

accc.gov.au accc.gov.au

Domestic gas buyers and hull underwriters

Confirm the Alcoa 31.1 petajoule and Alinta 46 petajoule deliveries do not depend on a Chinese LNG nomination.
Reprice hull cover on China-destination LNG only. Leave Japan and Korea cargoes on the continuing book.

industry.gov.au

Weekly checks

Weekly average Brent, US dollars a barrel The week to 31 March printed 123 and the week to 20 February printed 73. The calculated rise is 68.5 percent. A weekly Brent print is the producer and the importer signal.
accc.gov.au
Weekly average Mogas 95, Australian cents a litre The one-week move into 24 June was around 7 percent down. The four-month change from a 68 cent base and a 26 cent rise is a calculated 38 percent.
accc.gov.au
MSO gasoline consumption cover, days June quarter 2026 cover was 44 days for gasoline. The legal importer baseline is 27 days, and a temporary 20 percent reduction runs to 31 January 2027. Watch the cover and the obligation as separate numbers.
dcceew.gov.au dcceew.gov.au
LNG cargoes still nominated to China The last published China share is a calculated 21.5 percent of 2022-23 value. Current country tonnes are confidential, so the operational KPI is the company's own nomination list, not a DISR weekly.
industry.gov.au
Status of Lytton, Geelong, and the main import terminals Two refineries and a ship-fed terminal network are the domestic supply. Around 64 percent of petrol was imported in 2023-24.
accc.gov.au

What is not known

Observed baselines are the Resources and Energy Quarterly tables and infographics, the energy-trade shares, the MSO statistics and baselines, the ACCC composition and weekly prices, and the ACSC all-sector costs. Scenario inferences are wave order, the speed of LNG diversion, and any claim that a terminal outage will last a stated number of days.
industry.gov.au cyber.gov.au
Decision-changing limits. DISR confidentialises LNG country values after 2022-23, so there is no current China-only share to underwrite. The 21.5 percent China share is not multiplied by the 2025-26 total. Diesel and jet fuel origins by country were not in the ACCC petrol composition that was opened. No Australian LNG voyage days or charter rates were printed. Sales to Taiwan are not an import dependency. The HS 7304 and HS 8481 tables have no Taiwan row. The U.S. figure of 239,959,689 kilograms is not an Australian content share. No Australian terminal-outage day count was printed. The Lytton fact is approximately 150 ML, and the ACSC energy figure is 17 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents. ACSC cost averages on the business factsheet remain all-sector. The 176 thousand barrel a day prose figure and the 182 thousand barrel a day table figure disagree, and the table is used.
industry.gov.au accc.gov.au public-inspection.federalregister.gov cyber.gov.au cyber.gov.au marketindex.com.au wits.worldbank.org wits.worldbank.org trade.gov
Calculated figures use two printed inputs and are labeled. LNG shares use the 2022-23 country dollars divided by 92,237. The Brent 68.5 percent uses 123 and 73. The Mogas 38 percent uses around 26 cents and the 68 cent print. The 21.5 percent China share is not multiplied by the 2025-26 total. The 30-day diversion line and the 7 percent Mogas rise line are planning lines, not published covenants.
industry.gov.au accc.gov.au
Plant-by-plant nameplate capacity on the LNG infographic is not cited because the extracted layout is ambiguous. World exporter shares on the same map are not Australia's customer mix and are not used. Coal export shares on the energy-trade page are out of scope for this industry and are not used. The 119 percent figure is the printed 'above the reduced obligation' wording for gasoline stocks.
industry.gov.au energy.gov.au dcceew.gov.au

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
LNG liquefaction plants	A plant trip stops cargoes, including those still nominated to Japan and Korea.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Resources and Energy Quarterly LNG tables
LNG carriers	Ships wait or divert when a load port or a North Asian discharge port is closed.	0-6 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Resources and Energy Quarterly shipping note
Crude export terminals	Condensate and crude loadings to Singapore and South Korea are the volumes that can continue.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	Resources and Energy Quarterly oil infographic
Domestic refineries	Lytton or Geelong going offline removes the domestic slice of petrol supply.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	ACCC petroleum market composition
Fuel import terminals	Most petrol arrives by ship, so a terminal outage is a city-level stock draw.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	energy.gov.au trade note; DCCEEW stocks
Fuel wholesalers	Four wholesalers move most petrol, so a scheduling outage is national.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	ACCC wholesale shares
Road fuel tankers	Tankers cannot refill sites if the import terminal rack is down.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	ACCC site count; DCCEEW cover
Retail fuel sites	Sites stock out on a thin cover and are a broad ransomware target.	0-3 months	Wave 3 (direct)	ACCC site count; ACSC business factsheet
Domestic gas buyers	Alumina and power contracts are domestic volumes that do not need a Chinese buyer.	0-12 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	Resources and Energy Quarterly domestic supply notes
Trading and scheduling systems	Cargo nominations and terminal slots fail when the commercial system is down.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	REQ contract share; ACCC wholesale structure
Oilfield service firms	Onshore crews and small contractors are the later, distributed target.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	REQ exploration spend; ACSC factsheet
Trade finance and marine insurance	Lenders and hull cover reprice China-destination LNG that must be diverted.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	Resources and Energy Quarterly LNG value and buyers

Oil, Gas, and LNG — Australia (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

What happens

LNG revenue stops or diverts; petrol keeps arriving unless the ship or the terminal stops

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

LNG producers

Refiners and import terminals

Fuel wholesalers and retailers

Domestic gas buyers and hull underwriters

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources