A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Financial Services & Payments — Australia (Investor-Grade)

Read the United States briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

Australia is not the home market of a U.S. card network. The retail rails that are printed are Australian. In December 2025, seasonally adjusted, New Payments Platform transactions were valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars. New Payments Platform value rose 0.4 percent in the December month. The year-ended value growth of 23.0 percent is the December 2025 rate on that value series. The number of New Payments Platform transactions in the month was 163.8 million.
rba.gov.au
High-value settlement is RITS, not Fedwire. In 2025/26, RITS excluding the Fast Settlement Service settled an average of 69,000 transactions per day worth 314 billion dollars. The Fast Settlement Service settled an average of 4 million transactions per day worth 5.9 billion dollars. Average daily RITS value grew by around 9 per cent from 2024/25. A technology outage in January 2026 meant RITS missed its availability target. No hour count and no dollar cost of that outage are printed.
rba.gov.au
The deposit system is the APRA authorised deposit-taking institution total, not a four-bank market-share table. At December 2025, net profit after tax was 42.3 billion dollars, total assets were 6,828.8 billion dollars, and the total capital ratio was 20.3 percent. The liquidity coverage ratio was 130.2 percent, down from 132.2 percent a year earlier. The net stable funding ratio was 116.1 percent. The highlights page does not split those stocks across the four RITS members named below.
apra.gov.au
Direct financial exposure to China is described as small, and the transmission that is described is trade. The RBA says Australia has little direct exposure to China's financial system, that banking exposures to China have declined over the past decade, and that a sizable decrease in goods and services exports to China could stress exporters and then their providers of finance. On a consolidated basis, just over 24 per cent of Australian banks' exposures are claims on non-residents, more than one-third of which are claims on New Zealand by the major Australian banks. The share of debt funding from abroad declined from around 25 per cent in 2007 to just over 10 per cent, as at June 2025. Around 45 per cent of that offshore debt is short-term.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au
The onshore China bank book that was opened is ANZ China, a wholly owned subsidiary. At 31 December 2025 its total assets were RMB 32.54 billion, including loans and advances of RMB 6.44 billion. Total liabilities were RMB 24.94 billion, including deposits of RMB 15.53 billion. A later line in the same report says total loan assets were RMB 6.53 billion. No Australian-dollar conversion is printed, and none is applied here. A consolidated trade-finance dollar from the parent to China was not in this subsidiary report.
anz.com
Cyber cost by business size is the ACSC self-reported cost, and it is not the enterprise balance sheet. In 2024-25 the average self-reported cost per business report was 80,850 dollars, up 50 percent. Small business was 56,600 dollars, medium business was 97,200 dollars, and large business was 202,700 dollars. Financial and insurance services was 7 percent of incidents in the top 10 reporting sectors. Enterprise exposure in this note is the 6,828.8 billion dollar ADI asset total and the New Payments Platform month, not the 202,700 dollar average.
cyber.gov.au apra.gov.au

Export finance first, domestic rails second, Taiwan as a membership list

A China trade stop hits Australian banks through exporters, on the RBA's account. Australia has little direct exposure to China's financial system. Banking exposures to China have declined over the past decade. A sizable decrease in exports to China could create stress for exporters and their suppliers and then for providers of finance. Mining is described as a large share of the trade exposure and as generally low cost, with relatively low leverage, high cash buffers, and high hedging. No export-loss dollar and no China banking-exposure dollar are printed on that page.
rba.gov.au
The only China balance sheet opened in dollars of renminbi is ANZ China. Loans and advances were RMB 6.44 billion and deposits were RMB 15.53 billion at 31 December 2025. The top onshore single corporate customer loan was 7.87 percent of China net capital, against a printed limit under 10 percent. That book is the subsidiary in China. It is not the Sydney consolidated trade-finance ledger.
anz.com
Domestic payments do not depend on a Chinese acquirer. December card purchases on Australian-issued cards were 96.0 billion dollars. Debit was 57.3 billion dollars and credit and charge was 38.7 billion dollars. ATM withdrawals were 9.2 billion dollars and 27.8 million in number. Cheque payments were 12.8 billion dollars. These are payment-system prints, not merchant-sales figures.
rba.gov.au
The week-1 operational break that is named is RITS availability. A technology outage in January 2026 meant the availability target for RITS was missed, while the Fast Settlement Service target was met. The annual report also says new controls address findings from the independent review of the October 2022 outage of RITS. Neither passage prints hours down or a dollar loss.
rba.gov.au
Taiwan in this industry is a RITS membership fact. The list updated 28 October 2026 names Bank of Taiwan, E.SUN Commercial Bank, First Commercial Bank, Hua Nan Commercial Bank, Mega International Commercial Bank, Taiwan Business Bank, and Taiwan Cooperative Bank. The same update added Land Bank of Taiwan as an ESA holder not yet operational. That is a payments-system membership. An Australian-bank credit dollar on Taiwan was not on the pages opened.
rba.gov.au

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon monthly series, not a year-over-year peak: New Payments Platform transactions were valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars in December 2025, and New Payments Platform value rose 0.4 percent in the December month. The same release is the monthly payments analog. The January 2026 RITS outage still prints no hour count, so this month is the short analog. A system-wide trade-finance dollar to China remains unpublished. ANZ China loans and advances of RMB 6.44 billion stay that subsidiary's book.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au anz.com
Short-horizon outage analog: a technology outage in January 2026 caused RITS to miss its availability target, while the Fast Settlement Service met its target. Hours down and dollars lost are not printed.
rba.gov.au

1–6 months

No separate one-to-six-month loss rate was printed. The first-half watch remains the December monthly level valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars, with card purchases of 96.0 billion dollars as the other monthly level. Carrying a one-month print into the half is a planning choice, not a published half-year loss.
rba.gov.au

12+ months

Full-year rates: the year-ended value growth of 23.0 percent for New Payments Platform value, RITS average daily value up by around 9 per cent, and the total capital ratio was 20.3 percent at December 2025 against 20.1 percent a year earlier. The ACSC large-business cost was up 219 percent to 202,700 dollars and is not the payments-loss rate.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au apra.gov.au cyber.gov.au

Wave 1

Wave 1 is settlement infrastructure and the banks that use it. RITS, the New Payments Platform and the Fast Settlement Service, and authorised deposit-taking institution core banking are direct. Taiwan-named RITS members are indirect because they lose Australian-dollar settlement when RITS is down. The January 2026 RITS outage and the BianLian advisory are the evidence. The week assignment is a planning inference.

rba.gov.au cisa.gov rba.gov.au

Wave 2

Wave 2 is cards, the export-finance channel, and the ANZ China subsidiary. Cards and the Shanghai subsidiary are direct enterprise systems. Trade finance for commodity exporters is indirect because the RBA's order is exporter first and lender second. This ordering is a planning inference.

rba.gov.au rba.gov.au anz.com

Wave 3

Wave 3 is the distributed and legacy edge. ATMs are direct. Cheque payments are indirect. ATM withdrawals were 9.2 billion dollars in December, beside real-time value that was much larger. This ordering is a planning inference.

rba.gov.au cisa.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

24levelnon-resident claims

just over 24 per cent

RBA Financial Stability Review, October 2025, overseas shocks

10leveloffshore debt funding

just over 10 per cent

RBA Financial Stability Review, October 2025, overseas shocks

Cost and price shock by time bucket

payment changepercent

0.4increase0-3 monthsNPP December month

rose 0.4 percent

RBA retail payments, December 2025

23.0increase12+ monthsNPP year-ended value

year-ended value growth of 23.0 percent

RBA retail payments, December 2025

Downstream scale

npp monthbillion Australian dollars

226.3levelNPP December value

valued at 226.3

RBA retail payments, December 2025

Operating prints

ratespercent

20.3levelADI total capital ratio

total capital ratio was 20.3 percent

APRA, ADI performance statistics, December 2025 highlights

What to do

Day 7

Confirm RITS and Fast Settlement Service paths after the January 2026 outage that missed the RITS availability target. The daily control totals are 69,000 transactions and 314 billion dollars for RITS, and 4 million transactions and 5.9 billion dollars for the Fast Settlement Service.
rba.gov.au
List China-export borrowers separately from domestic New Payments Platform volume. The retail control total is the month valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au

Day 30

Reconcile ANZ China loans and advances of RMB 6.44 billion with the later total-loan-assets line of RMB 6.53 billion, and test the top customer against the printed limit under 10 percent of China net capital. The actual was 7.87 percent.
anz.com
Read the RITS list for Taiwan-named members and record that Land Bank of Taiwan is not yet operational. Do not book a Taiwan credit dollar that no opened page prints.
rba.gov.au

Day 90

Compare liquidity with the 130.2 percent coverage ratio and capital with the total capital ratio, which was 20.3 percent. Both comparisons are planning lines at the December 2025 prints.
apra.gov.au
Watch whether offshore funding stress shows up in the short-term slice. Around 45 per cent of offshore debt is short-term, and the offshore share of debt funding is just over 10 per cent.
rba.gov.au

What to watch

New Payments Platform monthly value, billion Australian dollars. Act when New Payments Platform monthly value prints below 226.3 billion Australian dollars. That figure is the December 2025 seasonally adjusted value. It is a planning line. The RBA does not publish this tripwire.
rba.gov.au
ADI liquidity coverage ratio, percent. Act when the ADI liquidity coverage ratio prints below 130.2 percent. That figure is the December 2025 highlights print. It is a planning line at the latest observed ratio. The highlights page does not publish this research tripwire as a minimum.
apra.gov.au
ADI total capital ratio, percent. Act when the total capital ratio prints below 20.3 percent. That figure is the December 2025 print. It is a planning line. APRA's highlights page does not label 20.3 percent as a breach threshold.
apra.gov.au
ANZ China loans and advances, billion renminbi. Act when ANZ China loans and advances print below 3.22 billion renminbi. Half of the summary print of 6.44 is 3.22, and that half is calculated. The 3.22 line is a planning line. The subsidiary's published large-exposure limit is separate: the top onshore single corporate loan is capped under 10 percent of China net capital, and the actual was 7.87 percent.
anz.com

By role

ADI treasury and payments operations

Staff an alternate high-value path after the January 2026 RITS availability miss.
Keep the Fast Settlement Service and New Payments Platform control totals, 5.9 billion dollars a day and the month valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars.
Watch the liquidity coverage ratio against 130.2 percent as a planning line.

rba.gov.au rba.gov.au apra.gov.au

Trade-finance desks

Rank China-export borrowers ahead of a system number that was not published.
Mark ANZ China separately, in renminbi, at loans and advances of RMB 6.44 billion.
Do not convert that renminbi stock to Australian dollars without a rate printed on the source page.

rba.gov.au anz.com

Card and ATM operators

Use Australian-issued card purchases of 96.0 billion dollars and ATM withdrawals of 9.2 billion dollars as the December baseline.
Do not import a U.S. network revenue share into this market.

rba.gov.au

Correspondent and membership desks

List the Taiwan-named RITS members and flag Land Bank of Taiwan as not yet operational.
Keep that list out of the credit-exposure total.

rba.gov.au

Weekly checks

New Payments Platform monthly value, billion Australian dollars December 2025 transactions were valued at 226.3 billion Australian dollars, and value rose 0.4 percent in the December month.
rba.gov.au
RITS average daily value, billion dollars The 2025/26 print is 314 billion dollars a day. January 2026 is the named availability miss.
rba.gov.au
ADI liquidity coverage ratio, percent December 2025 printed 130.2 percent, down from 132.2 percent.
apra.gov.au
ANZ China loans and advances, billion renminbi The summary print is RMB 6.44 billion at 31 December 2025. Half of that print is the planning line for the subsidiary book.
anz.com

What is not known

Observed baselines are the RBA retail-payments table, the RBA annual-report payment section, APRA's December 2025 highlights, the two Financial Stability Review chapters, ANZ China's 2025 annual report, the RITS membership list, the ACSC fact sheet, and the BianLian advisory. Scenario inferences are the wave order, any 2027 export-loss dollar, and any claim that a future outage will last as long as an unpublished hour count.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au cisa.gov
Unpublished primaries. No consolidated Australian trade-finance dollar to China was printed. The RBA does not print a dollar of banking exposures to China. ANZ's summary loans and advances of RMB 6.44 billion differ from the later total-loan-assets line of RMB 6.53 billion, and both are reported rather than averaged. No Australian-dollar rate for that renminbi book was on the page. No ADI-by-size asset split was on the highlights page. No hour count or dollar cost was printed for the January 2026 RITS outage or the October 2022 outage. BianLian does not name a bank or a loss dollar. No Taiwan credit dollar for an Australian bank was found. The opened APRA foreign-ADI licence page for Land Bank of Taiwan prints no loan dollar and no premium. No chip share tied to terminals was used. A system-wide trade-finance dollar to China remains unpublished. The ANZ China loan book stays the subsidiary book.
rba.gov.au anz.com rba.gov.au cisa.gov apra.gov.au apra.gov.au anz.com
The only calculated planning figure is the half of ANZ China loans and advances. Half of 6.44 is 3.22, labeled calculated. The 7.87 percent, 10.05 percent, and 10.18 percent large-exposure actuals are printed, not calculated. The 0.25 point capital-ratio change is the APRA table's own change column, not a fresh calculation. The 10.6 trillion dollar supervision sentence is not an ADI asset figure.
anz.com apra.gov.au
RITS membership at end-June was 150, with 97 exchange-settlement accounts, in the annual report. The 28 October 2026 list is used for names only. Chinese banks on that list are not counted as Australian credit exposure to China. Agricultural Bank of China is named as a member. A full Chinese-bank count is not used as a credit metric.
rba.gov.au rba.gov.au

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Reserve Bank Information and Transfer System	High-value settlement continues at the 2025/26 daily print unless a technology outage misses the availability target again.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	RBA annual report 2025/26, RITS
New Payments Platform and Fast Settlement Service	Retail real-time payments keep the December value print. A China stop does not close the platform.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	RBA retail payments December 2025; RBA annual report FSS
Authorised deposit-taking institutions	The ADI system holds the December capital and liquidity prints. Stress arrives if exporters cannot service debt.	0-6 months	Wave 1 (direct)	APRA December 2025 highlights; RBA October 2026 FSR
Cards on Australian-issued cards	Australian-issued card purchases are a domestic retail rail, not a U.S. card-network home market.	0-3 months	Wave 2 (direct)	RBA retail payments December 2025
ATMs	ATM withdrawals are a small cash residual next to real-time payments and keep a December print.	0-3 months	Wave 3 (direct)	RBA retail payments, ATM withdrawals
Trade finance for commodity exporters	A stop in exports to China stresses exporters first and their lenders second. No system trade-finance dollar was printed.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	RBA October 2026 Financial Stability Review
ANZ China subsidiary	The Shanghai subsidiary's loans and deposits are an onshore renminbi book that a China trade stop can freeze.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	ANZ China annual report 2025
Cheque payments	Cheques are a shrinking legacy rail. They are not the first cyber target and they are not the China exposure.	12+ months	Wave 3 (indirect)	RBA retail payments, cheque row
Taiwan-named RITS members	Taiwanese banks are members of the Australian settlement system. That is a payments membership, not a measured Australian credit book on Taiwan.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	RITS membership list, 28 October 2026

Financial Services & Payments — Australia (Investor-Grade)

What happens

Export finance first, domestic rails second, Taiwan as a membership list

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

ADI treasury and payments operations

Trade-finance desks

Card and ATM operators

Correspondent and membership desks

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources