A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Australia's port shock is two businesses. The large one is bulk export tonnes. The smaller one is container imports. BITRE sea exports were 1,558.2 million tonnes. Sea imports were 111.6 million tonnes. Those totals are not interchangeable, and neither total is a container TEU.
China, including Hong Kong and Macau on the BITRE footnote, took 976.3 million tonnes of sea exports out of 1,558.2 million tonnes. Calculated from those two printed weights, China was a calculated 62.7 percent of Australian sea-export weight. Japan was 201.4 million tonnes, a calculated 12.9 percent of Australian sea-export weight. Korea was 103.5 million tonnes, a calculated 6.6 percent of Australian sea-export weight. Taiwan was 49.6 million tonnes, a calculated 3.2 percent of Australian sea-export weight. India was 54.8 million tonnes.
The bulk ports are not the mines. Infrastructure Australia, citing port documents for 2024-25, prints Port Hedland total exports of 576.2 million tonnes, of which iron ore exports of 569.8 million tonnes. Newcastle total exports of 149.8 million tonnes, of which Newcastle coal exports of 145.9 million tonnes. Hay Point total exports of 96.2 million tonnes, and the same table prints coal at 96.2 million tonnes, which is 100 percent of that port. A China destination share for any of those ports is not on the page.
The container system is a different scale. Port of Melbourne handled 3,386 thousand TEU. Port Botany handled 2,815 thousand TEU. Port of Brisbane handled 1,620 thousand TEU. Those are full-year container trade volumes. BITRE does not split container TEU by origin country. China sea-import value was 90.7 billion dollars inside 336.9 billion dollars, which is a calculated 26.9 percent of Australian sea-import value. China sea-import weight was 20.7 million tonnes inside 111.6 million tonnes, a calculated 18.5 percent of Australian sea-import weight. Those import figures are not TEU and are not a port's China boxes.
The Port of Melbourne page states that China was 50 percent of container imports. China was 20 percent of container exports on that page. The port's own volume is 3.39 million TEU. That volume is not averaged with the Infrastructure Australia figure of 3,386 thousand TEU, and the import percent is not multiplied by either TEU series. A China TEU count stays unpublished. NSW Ports prints Total Container (TEUs) of 2,737 thousand for the period ended 30 June 2024, and trade revenue of 274,978 thousand dollars. That container total is not averaged with Port Botany's 2,815 thousand TEU. The lease report does not name an origin country. Trade revenue is wharfage and site occupation, not cargo value.
portofmelbourne.cominfrastructureaustralia.gov.aunswports.com.au
The short-horizon terminal analog is Australian and historical. DP World states that the backlog was cleared 10 days after first detecting the incident, comprising some 30,137 containers. The incident was confined to Australian operations. No dollar loss is printed.
The operating rates a stevedore can underwrite are half-year prints, not a war forecast. The five-port crane rate of 28.8 containers per net crane hour is the June quarter level. Truck turnaround of 32.6 minutes is the January-June average. Berth availability stood at 96.5 percent. Off-peak timeslots stood at 48.8 percent.
Chinese demand for the sea-export tonne stops. The national weight to China is 976.3 million tonnes. Export value to China is 190.0 billion dollars inside 467.0 billion dollars, a calculated 40.7 percent of Australian sea-export value. The value share and the weight share are different denominators.
The berths that load iron ore and coal are the physical point. Iron ore was 99 percent of Port Hedland export volume. Coal was 97 percent of Newcastle export volume. Coal was 100 percent of Hay Point export volume. None of those percents is a China destination share.
Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan are the export book that can still be nominated. Their printed weights are 201.4, 103.5, 54.8, and 49.6 million tonnes. Whether those buyers can take tonnes above the printed weights is unpublished.
Container terminals lose China-origin import boxes as a scenario inference where a port TEU split is unpublished. China import value is 90.7 billion dollars. Taiwan is not in the top-ten sea-import value list. Taiwan import weight is 5.0 million tonnes, a calculated 4.5 percent of the 111.6 million tonne import total. The Port of Melbourne page states that China was 50 percent of container imports. That percent is not a China TEU count and not a crane share. Botany and Brisbane still have no printed origin split of their TEU.
A stevedore network disconnect stops the landside even when the ship is alongside. The historical case cleared 10 days after first detecting the incident. ACSC says safety is paramount, OT must be segmented from other networks, and the supply chain must be secure.
Short-horizon outage analog, historical and in days: the backlog was cleared 10 days after first detecting the incident. The same statement's container count is comprising some 30,137 containers. This is not a year-over-year peak. No dollar is printed.
Half-year operating band if the landside problem persists: truck turnaround of 32.6 minutes, five-port crane rate of 28.8 containers per net crane hour, and berth availability stood at 96.5 percent. Five-port wharfside TEU of 4,339.2 thousand is the half-year volume level, not a loss percentage.
Long-horizon trade book, not a port tariff: China sea-export weight of 976.3 million tonnes and China sea-export value of 190.0 billion dollars. The container growth rates of 111 percent, 159 percent, and 209 percent are the pre-conflict planning path and are not a war price.
Wave 1 direct is bulk-loader controls at Hedland, Newcastle, and Hay Point, container-terminal controls at Melbourne, Botany, and Brisbane, and the stevedore landside system. Wave 1 indirect is the bulk carrier, the allied loading, and the container truck, which stop when the loader or the stevedore system stops. ACSC does not publish this order. It is a planning model. The historical placement is the DP World landside disconnect.
Wave 2 direct is trade finance on the China export tonne. The berth can be loading a Japan cargo while credit systems on the China value row are down. This ordering is a planning inference.
No separate distributed retail tier is scored. The truck is already Wave 1 indirect because the historical outage hit the landside immediately. A later wave is not invented to fill a slot. The planning model stops at the finance wave unless a future page names a third target.
origin sharepercent
a calculated 62.7 percent of Australian sea-export weight
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24a calculated 12.9 percent of Australian sea-export weight
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24a calculated 6.6 percent of Australian sea-export weight
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24a calculated 3.2 percent of Australian sea-export weight
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24Iron ore was 99 percent of Port Hedland export volume
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsCoal was 97 percent of Newcastle export volume
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsCoal was 100 percent of Hay Point export volume
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsThe Port of Melbourne page states that China was 50 percent of container imports.
Port of Melbourne FY25 trade dataoutage daysdays
10 days after first detecting the incident
DP World Australia cybersecurity incident updatebacklog containerscontainers
comprising some 30,137 containers
DP World Australia cybersecurity incident updatevessel callsvessel calls
Port Hedland recorded 3,057 port calls
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24Newcastle recorded 2,010 port calls
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24Hay Point recorded 1,246 port calls
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24Melbourne recorded 3,054 port calls
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-2430,850 port calls
BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24container teuthousand TEU
Port of Melbourne handled 3,386 thousand TEU
Infrastructure Australia container portsPort Botany handled 2,815 thousand TEU
Infrastructure Australia container portsPort of Brisbane handled 1,620 thousand TEU
Infrastructure Australia container portsbulk tonnesmillion tonnes
Port Hedland total exports of 576.2 million tonnes
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsiron ore exports of 569.8 million tonnes
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsNewcastle total exports of 149.8 million tonnes
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsNewcastle coal exports of 145.9 million tonnes
Infrastructure Australia bulk portsHay Point total exports of 96.2 million tonnes
Infrastructure Australia bulk portscrane ratecontainers per net crane hour
five-port crane rate of 28.8 containers per net crane hour
BITRE Waterline 71truck minutesminutes
truck turnaround of 32.6 minutes
BITRE Waterline 71operating percentpercent
berth availability stood at 96.5 percent
BITRE Waterline 71Off-peak timeslots stood at 48.8 percent
BITRE Waterline 71Split the book. Bulk nominations to China stop. Nominations to Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan stay live if the loader is up. Container import files from China stop. Do not use the 99 percent iron-ore mix as a China destination share.
Compare any landside outage with 10 days after first detecting the incident. Segment terminal OT from the corporate network. ACSC principle 4 is to segment and segregate OT from all other networks. Watch truck turnaround of 32.6 minutes and the five-port crane rate of 28.8 containers per net crane hour.
Keep bulk KPIs in tonnes and calls, and container KPIs in TEU and minutes. Do not add Port Hedland's 576.2 million tonnes to Melbourne's 3,386 thousand TEU. Revisit allied export weights against the printed Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan rows before assuming they absorbed the China tonne.
infrastructureaustralia.gov.auinfrastructureaustralia.gov.aubitre.gov.au
Port Hedland export tonnes. Act when Port Hedland exports print below 288.1 million tonnes. That line is half of 576.2, and the half is calculated. Infrastructure Australia does not publish this tripwire. It is a planning line against the printed port total, not a claim that half the port is China.
Landside outage, days from detection to cleared backlog. Act when a stevedore landside outage runs longer than 10 days. Ten days is the printed interval from first detection to a cleared backlog. DP World does not publish a future covenant. The 10-day line is a planning line set on that historical analog.
Five-port crane rate, containers per net crane hour. Act when the five-port crane rate prints below 28.8 containers per net crane hour. The 28.8 level is the printed June-quarter rate. BITRE does not publish a minimum. The line is a planning line at that printed level.
Five-port truck turnaround, minutes. Act when average truck turnaround prints above 32.6 minutes. That figure is the printed January-June average. BITRE does not publish a maximum. The line is a planning line at that printed level.
Separate China nominations from Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan nominations.
Report the commodity mix and the destination file as two columns.
Isolate loader controls from the office network.
Rehearse a landside disconnect against the 10-day and 30,137-container case.
Keep crane rate and truck turnaround on the Waterline definitions.
Do not annualize a half-year TEU into the IA full-year table.
Hold non-China destination options against the printed national weights.
Do not treat a single Hedland cargo as 99 percent China.
Haircut the national China export-value row of 190.0 billion dollars.
Leave Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan export value on the live book.
Do not invent a Hedland-to-China dollar.
Bulk export tonnes by port The published levels are annual. Port Hedland total exports of 576.2 million tonnes is the baseline a weekly operations report should be trending toward or away from. A weekly tonne series was not on the IA page.
China versus Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan nominations The national weights are the only bulk destination scale that is printed. A port-level China destination share for the bulk ports is unpublished, so the weekly watch is the nomination file, judged against 976.3 million tonnes to China and 49.6 million tonnes to Taiwan.
Crane rate and truck turnaround Five-port crane rate of 28.8 containers per net crane hour and truck turnaround of 32.6 minutes are the printed operating rates. Waterline is quarterly and half-yearly, so a true week is an operator extract until the next Waterline.
Landside hours down The only printed clearance interval is 10 days after first detecting the incident. Count hours against that historical case. Do not import a dollar loss the DP World statement does not print.
Observed baselines are BITRE Australian Sea Freight 2023-24, BITRE Waterline 71, the Infrastructure Australia bulk and container port pages, the Port of Melbourne trade page, the NSW Ports lease report, the DP World Australia statement, and the ACSC OT principles. Wave order and the share of each bulk port that is China are inferences or unpublished. The share of each container port's TEU that is China stays unpublished. Melbourne prints a percent of container imports, and that percent is not a TEU share.
bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.aucyber.gov.auportofmelbourne.comnswports.com.au
Calculated shares use two figures on one BITRE table and are labeled at one decimal. Export weight uses 976.3 over 1,558.2 for China at 62.7 percent, 201.4 over 1,558.2 for Japan at 12.9 percent, 103.5 over 1,558.2 for Korea at 6.6 percent, and 49.6 over 1,558.2 for Taiwan at 3.2 percent. Export value uses 190.0 over 467.0 for China at 40.7 percent and 18.7 over 467.0 for Taiwan at 4.0 percent. Import weight uses 20.7 over 111.6 for China at 18.5 percent and 5.0 over 111.6 for Taiwan at 4.5 percent. Import value uses 90.7 over 336.9 for China at 26.9 percent. The Hedland planning half uses 576.2 divided by 2, which is 288.1.
Unpublished primaries. BITRE and Waterline do not publish container TEU by country of origin, so Melbourne, Botany, and Brisbane China-box counts stay unpublished. The Port of Melbourne page prints a China share of container imports and does not print a China TEU count. NSW Ports does not name an origin country on the Botany lease report. BITRE does not publish a Port Hedland or Newcastle destination mix, so the China share of those ports stays unpublished. The national China row and the port commodity mix are different series. A Taiwan share of cranes or terminal equipment is unpublished. A crane share may stay unpublished. No Australian ZPMC crane count was opened, and none is invented. The DP World statement does not print a dollar loss.
bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.audpworld.cominfrastructureaustralia.gov.auportofmelbourne.comnswports.com.au
Series that must not be merged. IA 2024-25 port tonnes and BITRE 2023-24 port tonnes are different years. Waterline half-year TEU and IA full-year TEU are different periods. BITRE Sydney includes more than Port Botany. China on the BITRE partner tables includes Hong Kong and Macau and does not include Taiwan. Vessel calls are 2022-23. Berth occupancy of 41.0 percent is a container-terminal figure and is not applied to a bulk port. The 99 percent, 97 percent, and 100 percent commodity shares are printed port mixes, not recalculated and not destinations. The Port of Melbourne volume of 3.39 million TEU is not averaged with the Infrastructure Australia figure of 3,386 thousand TEU. NSW Ports Total Container of 2,737 thousand TEU is not averaged with Port Botany's 2,815 thousand TEU. The Melbourne China percent of container imports is not multiplied by either TEU series. Trade revenue of 274,978 thousand dollars is wharfage and site occupation, not cargo value.
bitre.gov.aubitre.gov.auinfrastructureaustralia.gov.auinfrastructureaustralia.gov.auportofmelbourne.comnswports.com.au
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Port Hedland iron-ore berths | Chinese iron-ore demand leaves the berth plan, and the port's iron-ore share is not a printed China destination. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | IA bulk table; BITRE national China weight and Hedland calls |
| Newcastle coal berths | Chinese coal demand leaves the Newcastle berth plan, while the port's coal share of its own exports stays a commodity mix. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | IA bulk table; BITRE Newcastle calls |
| Hay Point coal berths | A dedicated coal port loses Chinese demand and still has no printed China destination share. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | IA bulk table; BITRE Hay Point calls |
| Melbourne container terminals | Melbourne has a printed China share of container imports, and that share is not a China TEU count. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | Port of Melbourne container-import share; IA TEU is a different series |
| Port Botany container terminals | Port Botany loses China-origin import boxes, and that loss is not the wider BITRE Sydney harbour total. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | IA Port Botany TEU; BITRE Sydney group; Waterline Sydney |
| Brisbane container terminals | Brisbane loses China-origin import boxes without a published origin split of the port's TEU. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | IA Brisbane TEU; Waterline Brisbane |
| Stevedore terminal systems and landside | A landside disconnect stops trucks and stacks a backlog inside the historical Australian outage window. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | DP World Australia statement; ACSC OT principles |
| Bulk-carrier calls | Bulk-carrier calls aimed at a Chinese discharge port fall, and calls aimed at Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan can still be fixed. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | BITRE vessel calls by type and port |
| Allied and Taiwan bulk loadings | Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan sea-export tonnes can still load when a Chinese discharge port will not. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | BITRE export weight by country |
| Trade finance on the China export tonne | Lenders reprice the China sea-export value book and leave Japan, Korea, India, and Taiwan value in place. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | BITRE export value by country |
| Container truck vehicle booking | Truck turns and booked slots stop when the stevedore disconnects the landside network. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | DP World landside impact; Waterline truck turnaround and VBS |