A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Australia's shock is a lost Chinese buyer of iron ore and a smaller, cheaper slice of coal, plus imported equipment parts. It is not the United States' lost-import problem. On the WITS page, Australia's 2024 exports of non-agglomerated iron ores and concentrates were $81,869,975.21K and 899,747,000,000 kilograms. China was $69,202,396.01K and 767,150,000,000 kilograms. The value field is labeled in thousands of U.S. dollars on the WITS machinery-parts table that uses the same K convention, and this iron-ore page prints the K suffix.
China took 84.5 percent of the value of Australian non-agglomerated iron ore exports. That share is calculated as 69,202,396.01 divided by 81,869,975.21 and rounded to one decimal. The quantity share, calculated as 767,150,000,000 divided by 899,747,000,000, is 85.3 percent. Japan was 49,986,300,000 kilograms and Korea was 48,481,400,000 kilograms. Those two buyers continue, and they are an order of magnitude smaller than China.
Coal is a different book. WITS shows 2024 exports of coal, briquettes, and similar solid fuels at $56,507,578.21K and 361,958,000,000 kilograms. Japan was the largest buyer at $17,953,176.43K and 110,374,000,000 kilograms. India was $8,772,249.71K and 41,811,900,000 kilograms. China was $8,278,433.47K and 83,987,300,000 kilograms. Korea was $5,358,888.76K and 32,124,100,000 kilograms. Japan took 30.5 percent of Australian coal export volume on this line, calculated as 110,374,000,000 divided by 361,958,000,000 and rounded to one decimal. China took 23.2 percent of Australian coal export volume on this line, calculated as 83,987,300,000 divided by 361,958,000,000.
The port and rail system is the physical node under that buyer. Iron ore exports through Pilbara Ports were 730.8 million tonnes. Throughput across Ashburton, Dampier, Port Hedland, and Varanus Island was 775.7 million tonnes, estimated at $153 billion of commodities. Port Hedland was 577.7 million tonnes. Aurizon's Central Queensland Coal Network carried 208.0 million tonnes and coal EBITDA was $527 million.
Equipment parts are the import shock. Australia's imports of machinery parts used with headings 8425 to 8430 were $2,067,947.61K. China was $536,002.90K and 46,923,600 kilograms. The United States was $403,910.80K, Japan $179,439.64K, Germany $131,644.52K, and Italy $128,022.78K. The China value share, calculated as 536,002.90 divided by 2,067,947.61, is 25.9 percent. The page has no Taiwan row.
The one-month price analog is the whole commodity-price index, not iron ore. The index decreased by 1.3 percent in October, in SDR terms, after rising 0.9 percent in September. The bulk-commodities index decreased by 2.1 percent in October on spot prices. A one-month iron-ore percent was not printed. The in-quarter operational analog is a port closure. Port Hedland resumed shipping after 3 days of closure. Over the year the index increased 12.5 percent in SDR terms, and iron ore and alumina were the exceptions that fell.
The year-scale cash analog is already on the ABS page and is not the war scenario. Coal mining earnings fell 49.5 percent, a fall of $18.0 billion. Metal ore mining earnings fell 14.7 percent, or $16.1 billion. Mining earnings fell 20.5 percent, or $47.4 billion. Mining employment was 241,000.
The trade stop hits revenue at the mine because China is the iron-ore customer. China took 84.5 percent of the value of Australian non-agglomerated iron ore exports. Other Asia, nes, at $1,295,589.84K and 12,504,900,000 kilograms on that page, is not labeled Taiwan. Vietnam was 9,305,380,000 kilograms. Those residual buyers stay, and they are small next to China.
Coal does not lose its largest buyer. Japan took 30.5 percent of Australian coal export volume on this line. China's value share, calculated as 8,278,433.47 divided by 56,507,578.21, is 14.7 percent, lower than its 23.2 percent volume share, so the China tonnes were the cheaper ones. India's volume share, calculated as 41,811,900,000 divided by 361,958,000,000, is 11.6 percent. Korea's volume share, calculated as 32,124,100,000 divided by 361,958,000,000, is 8.9 percent. Japan, India, and Korea keep buying.
The cargo has to cross a port and a railroad before it is a sale. Pilbara Ports handled about 81 percent of national iron ore trade and 43 percent of global iron ore trade. The network tonnes on Aurizon's Central Queensland coal system were 208.0 million, 1 percent lower than the prior year. Volumes hauled were 192.2 million tonnes, 2 percent higher. A China stop fills stockpiles if those systems keep running, and a week-1 cyber hit stops them from running.
Parts for lifting, boring, and earth-moving machinery are the equipment cash figure. China supplied 25.9 percent of the HS 8431 value. The United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Sweden still supply the line. Sweden was 62,394.11 thousand U.S. dollars and 3,317,920 kilograms. This heading is not mining equipment only, and it is not a reagent.
Mineral sands are a smaller China-buyer exposure than iron ore. USGS says China's imports of titanium mineral concentrates through September were 3.8 million tons, and Australia supplied 17 percent of those imports, behind Mozambique at 47 percent. The same chapter says Australia supplied 51 percent of U.S. rutile imports through July, so the United States remains a rutile buyer. China was the leading importer of zirconium mineral concentrates, and Australia was one of the leading exporters. A percent of Australian zircon shipped to China was not printed.
Taiwan is not established as a mining-equipment electronics stop. The Australian HS 8431 partner table contains no Taiwan row. The 2024 U.S. HS 8431 table also has no Taiwan row. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. DFAT lists Taiwan at 17,512 million Australian dollars, 2.6 percent of all goods and services exports. That is the whole export book, not parts or reagents. The only Taiwan shares in the opened magnesium chapter are U.S. import shares of metal forms, 11 percent of alloys and 9 percent of sheet, powder, and other. Metal-form shares are not equipment.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgdfat.gov.aupubs.usgs.gov
Week-1 cyber disruption is the port and rail path. Transport, postal and warehousing accounted for 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents in the ACSC 2024-25 report. That share is the whole division, not a Pilbara incident count. Assigning the week to Pilbara and Aurizon remains planning inference. The price path can move even if ships keep sailing. The index decreased by 1.3 percent in October. That sentence is the whole index. It is not a claim that iron ore fell 1.3 percent in the month.
Short-horizon operational analog for iron ore: Port Hedland resumed shipping after 3 days of closure. That closure is weather, not a cyber outage. A one-month iron-ore price was not printed. The index decreased by 1.3 percent in October. The bulk-commodities index decreased by 2.1 percent in October. Both are the whole index or the bulk basket in SDR terms. They are not an iron-ore percent. The nine-month Tianjin path is outside this band.
The calculated nine-month iron-ore price decline was 11.6 percent, from $112.07 per ton to $99.07 at Tianjin. The window is nine months, so it is not the 90-day band. It is the China-port price path sitting under a lost buyer of 767,150,000,000 kilograms.
Coal mining earnings fell 49.5 percent, or $18.0 billion. Mining earnings fell 20.5 percent, or $47.4 billion. DFAT coal exports fell 24.6 percent to 64,172 million Australian dollars. The October index was still 12.5 percent higher over the year in SDR terms, with iron ore and alumina the exceptions.
Week-1 critical infrastructure. Pilbara ports and Aurizon rail are direct. Inland road haulage is indirect. The Australian measured fact is that transport, postal and warehousing accounted for 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents. That share is the whole division, not a count of incidents at Pilbara ports or on the Aurizon network. The threat frame also includes the Volt Typhoon alert co-authored by the Australian Cyber Security Centre. Node assignment remains planning inference.
Enterprises: iron-ore exporters, coal exporters, equipment-parts importers, commodity traders, and mineral-sands exporters, direct. Reagent importers are indirect because the chemical share itself was not published and the evidenced path is the missing shipment.
Smaller firms after infrastructure and enterprise waves: assay laboratories and mining contractors, both direct on this map.
origin sharepercent
China took 84.5 percent of the value of Australian non-agglomerated iron ore exports.
WITS HS 260111Japan took 30.5 percent of Australian coal export volume on this line.
WITS HS 2701China took 23.2 percent of Australian coal export volume on this line
WITS HS 2701price changepercent
The index decreased by 1.3 percent in October.
RBA ICP October 2026The bulk-commodities index decreased by 2.1 percent in October.
RBA ICP October 2026The calculated nine-month iron-ore price decline was 11.6 percent
USGS MCS 2026 iron oreCoal mining earnings fell 49.5 percent
ABS Australian Industryclosure daysdays
Port Hedland resumed shipping after 3 days of closure
ABC Newsworkforcepeople
Mining employment was 241,000.
ABS Australian Industryvolumemillion metric tons
Iron ore exports through Pilbara Ports were 730.8 million tonnes.
Pilbara Portsratespercent
Iron ore carried a 30.9 percent weight in the commodity-price index.
RBA ICP weightsMetallurgical coal carried an 11.4 percent weight in the commodity-price index.
RBA ICP weightsThermal coal carried an 8.5 percent weight in the commodity-price index.
RBA ICP weightsSeparate the iron-ore book from the coal book. China is 84.5 percent of non-agglomerated iron-ore value. Japan is the largest coal buyer. Do not apply the iron-ore share to coal.
Do not use DFAT's 29.4 percent China export share as the minerals exposure. Iron ore is 18.1 percent of goods and services exports and coal is 9.6 percent, all destinations. Natural gas at 60,173 million Australian dollars is out of this industry.
Qualify parts from the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Sweden against the China slice of 536,002.90 thousand U.S. dollars. Ask separately for reagent origin. The parts line does not answer that question.
Watch Port Hedland and the Central Queensland network in week 1. The baselines are 577.7 million tonnes and 208.0 million tonnes. A day-of-closure series was not printed.
Monthly Index of Commodity Prices, SDR. Act when the monthly index falls by more than 1.0 percent in SDR terms. The October print was a 1.3 percent decline of the whole index, and the spot bulk basket fell 2.1 percent. One percent is a planning line set inside that one-month analog, not an RBA rule. The print is not an iron-ore percent.
Japan plus Korea iron-ore lift, quarterly tonnes. Act when Japan and Korea together lift fewer than 20 million tonnes of non-agglomerated iron ore in a quarter while China is not buying. Their 2024 quantities were 49,986,300,000 and 48,481,400,000 kilograms, summing to 98,467,700,000 kilograms, or 98.4677 million tonnes. Dividing by 4 gives a calculated quarterly run-rate of 24.6 million tonnes. Twenty million tonnes is a planning line under that run-rate, not a contract covenant.
Non-China HS 8431 imports, annualized. Act when non-China imports on HS 8431 fall below 1,500 million U.S. dollars annualized. World imports were 2,067,947.61 thousand U.S. dollars and China was 536,002.90 thousand. Subtraction gives 1,531,944.71 thousand U.S. dollars, which is 1,531.94 million U.S. dollars after dividing by 1,000. The 1,500 million line is a planning line under that residual, not a customs rule.
Central Queensland coal-network tonnes. Act when network tonnes run more than 10 percent below 208.0 million tonnes on an annualized pace. The last observed change was 1 percent lower. Ten percent is a planning line set well beyond that baseline, not an Aurizon covenant.
Pilbara vessel visits. Act when average daily vessel visits across the four ports fall below 15 for two consecutive weeks. The printed average was 23 visits a day, on 8,480 visits in the year. Fifteen is a planning line, not a Pilbara Ports threshold. The opened closure analog is weather: Port Hedland resumed shipping after 3 days of closure. A cyber-outage day count was not printed.
Coal mining earnings, year over year. Act when coal mining earnings fall more than 25 percent year over year. The observed fall was 49.5 percent, or $18.0 billion. Twenty-five percent is a planning line set inside that baseline so it triggers before a full repeat, not an ABS rule.
Model a buyer book without China and with Japan and Korea capped near their printed kilograms.
Do not treat the 1.3 percent October index move as the iron-ore price. Use the 11.6 percent nine-month Tianjin decline for the price path.
Put week-1 continuity on Port Hedland and the 23-visit daily average.
Keep Japan, India, and Korea as the continuing buyers. The China hole is 83,987,300,000 kilograms and $8,278,433.47K.
Stress liquidity off the observed 49.5 percent earnings drop, not off the iron-ore 84.5 percent share.
Treat Pilbara ports and Aurizon rail as week-1 direct cyber nodes, and road haulage as week-1 indirect. The measured Australian fact is 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents in transport, postal and warehousing, which is the whole division.
Use 730.8 million tonnes, 577.7 million tonnes, 208.0 million tonnes, and 23 visits a day as the operating baselines.
Shift the 536,002.90 thousand U.S. dollar China slice toward the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Sweden.
Do not read Other Asia, nes at 5,324.77 thousand U.S. dollars as Taiwan.
Record that no reagent country share and no lab census were published.
Plan labs and contractors as a later direct wave, after ports and exporters.
Monthly Index of Commodity Prices against the October SDR move. The index decreased by 1.3 percent in October. The bulk-commodities index decreased by 2.1 percent in October. Neither number is an iron-ore percent.
Iron-ore shipments to China against 767,150,000,000 kilograms, and to Japan and Korea against 49,986,300,000 and 48,481,400,000 kilograms. A weekly series was not printed, so the annual line is the baseline.
Coal shipments to Japan against 110,374,000,000 kilograms and to China against 83,987,300,000 kilograms.
Pilbara vessel visits against 23 a day and 8,480 in the year. Port Hedland throughput against 577.7 million tonnes.
HS 8431 arrivals from the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Sweden against 403,910.80, 179,439.64, 131,644.52, 128,022.78, and 62,394.11 thousand U.S. dollars.
Cyber wave order is a planning model. Pilbara ports and Aurizon rail are Wave 1 direct. Inland road haulage is Wave 1 indirect. The measured Australian fact under that tag is that transport, postal and warehousing accounted for 26 percent of critical-infrastructure incidents. That share is the whole division, not a named Pilbara or Aurizon incident. Reagent importers are Wave 2 indirect because no chemical share was published. Assay laboratories and mining contractors are Wave 3 direct.
Calculated figures, with both inputs printed on the cited page, rounded to one decimal unless the sentence keeps more precision. Iron-ore China value share 84.5 percent from 69,202,396.01 and 81,869,975.21. Quantity share 85.3 percent from 767,150,000,000 and 899,747,000,000. Japan plus Korea quantity 98,467,700,000 kilograms by addition, 10.9 percent of the world quantity, and 24.6 million tonnes a quarter after dividing by 4. Coal Japan volume share 30.5 percent. Coal China volume share 23.2 percent. Coal China value share 14.7 percent from 8,278,433.47 and 56,507,578.21. India coal volume share 11.6 percent. Korea coal volume share 8.9 percent. HS 8431 China value share 25.9 percent from 536,002.90 and 2,067,947.61. United States parts share 19.5 percent from 403,910.80 and 2,067,947.61. Non-China parts residual 1,531.94 million U.S. dollars. Nine-month iron-ore price decline 11.6 percent from 112.07 and 99.07. National coal quantity 361.958 million tonnes from 361,958,000,000 kilograms.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgpubs.usgs.gov
Unpublished primaries, left as limits. No Taiwan share of mining-equipment electronics. No processing-chemical country share. No uranium destination share. No agglomerated iron-ore partner table. No destination split for DFAT copper ores or alumina. No one-month iron-ore price. The opened port analog is 3 days at Port Hedland, a weather closure, not a cyber outage. No cyber-outage day count. No Class rail percentage beyond Aurizon's own tonnes. No assay-lab census. No days of parts or reagent cover. HS 260111 is not all iron ore. DFAT's 29.4 percent is not a minerals-only China share. The 1.3 percent October move is not iron ore. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. EIA-style short tons are not used in this country file. The Pilbara 730.8 million tonne year is not the same series as the WITS 899,747,000,000 kilogram calendar line.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgdfat.gov.aurba.gov.auwa.gov.auabc.net.aucyber.gov.au
Tripwires at 1.0 percent on the index, 20 million tonnes for Japan and Korea, 1,500 million U.S. dollars of non-China parts, 10 percent below 208.0 million rail tonnes, 15 vessel visits against a baseline of 23, and 25 percent coal-earnings decline are planning lines set against the printed baselines. They are not covenants.
rba.gov.auwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.organnouncements.asx.com.auwa.gov.auabs.gov.au
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Iron-ore exporters | The China buyer of non-agglomerated iron ore is the revenue hole; Japan and Korea keep a much smaller book. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org 260111 |
| Coal exporters | Japan remains the largest buyer; China is a cheaper and smaller value slice of the coal book. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org 2701 |
| Pilbara ports | Week-1 loading of the iron-ore system stops if port operating technology fails. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | wa.gov.au |
| Aurizon rail | Week-1 coal haulage on the Central Queensland network stops if the rail system fails. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | asx.com.au |
| Inland road haulage | Mine-to-rail road hauls slow when the port and rail systems fail. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | wa.gov.au |
| Equipment-parts importers | China-origin parts for headings 8425 to 8430 stop; the United States, Japan, Germany, Italy, and Sweden still supply the line. | 0–6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org 8431 |
| Reagent importers | No cyanide or xanthate country share was printed; the parts line is not a reagent line. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org 8431 |
| Assay laboratories | Shipment assays for iron ore and coal pause if smaller labs are hit after the infrastructure wave. | 1–12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | wa.gov.au |
| Commodity traders | Unsold China-spec iron ore, and the lower-priced China coal tonnes, sit with traders when that buyer stops. | 0–6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Mining contractors | Contractor hours follow the iron-ore and coal cash hole, after the rail and port week. | 1–12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | abs.gov.au |
| Mineral-sands exporters | China is a concentrate buyer for titanium minerals and the leading zircon importer; the United States still buys Australian rutile. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | usgs.gov |