A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Australia's electronic-security import book is China-led on the line that was opened. 40,396.35 divided by 85,426.10 equals a calculated China share of 47.3 percent of HS 853110 alarm apparatus. That is the opposite shape of a Mexico-led table. The opened heading has no row named Taiwan. The residual label Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan and is not used as a figure.
Guarding is a licensed domestic workforce and it continues. Individual security licences were 167,530 and firm and master licences were 13,220 at 31 December 2024. Occupation employment was 66,800. The licence roll and the occupation count are different universes and are not added.
Electronic security is a separate book from guarding. ABS puts alarm monitoring and security guard service in class 7712 and says installing alarms are in class 3234. Victoria prints 40,942 individual licences and a separate registration total of 4,530, including 1,458 security equipment installers. This is not a U.S. alarm-monitoring REIT.
The listed monitoring firm is Intelligent Monitoring Group, which includes the Australian and New Zealand ADT brand, IMS wholesale monitoring for more than 800 independents, and more than 200,000 customers. Revenue from ordinary activities was 203,656,000 dollars. A post-year-end United Kingdom ADT agreement is outside that figure.
The short cyber analog is guidance, not a measured outage. The CI fact sheet says isolate vital OT and enabling systems for 3 months. Business cybercrime cost is labeled demand: small business cost was up 14 percent, and large business cost was up 219 percent. The security industry is not the top reporting sector on that page.
A China trade stop removes 40,396.35 thousand USD from an alarm-apparatus import total of 85,426.10 thousand USD. The calculated China share of 47.3 percent is the hit on this line. The next named partner is the United Kingdom at 8,197.51 thousand USD.
The low-exposure proof is a failed camera query plus an opened heading with no row named Taiwan. No WITS partner on HS 853110 is named Taiwan. A refetched HS 852589 query returned a WITS error page and supplied no figure. The residual label Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan and is not used as a figure.
Guarding labour does not stop with the ship. Occupation employment was 66,800 and the overview prints median weekly earnings of 1,818 dollars. NSW master subclasses still authorise operatives from one person to unlimited.
Monitoring is a 24-hour desk. IMG says it operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. A platform failure stops wholesale monitoring for more than 800 independents. No day-count of an IMG outage was printed.
Cyber on customers is the demand case. ACSC recorded an 11 percent increase from last year in incidents it responded to, and it tells critical-infrastructure operators to isolate vital OT and enabling systems for 3 months. Those costs and that duration are not IMG's accounts.
State licensing continues. A master licence is required to employ or subcontract security activities. The subclass caps still limit how many licensed persons a firm may provide on a day.
Short-horizon labor price: the overview prints median weekly earnings of 1,818 dollars. This is a weekly level. It is not a year-over-year peak.
Short-horizon duration guidance, labeled as customer planning and not as a measured outage: isolate vital OT and enabling systems for 3 months.
Short-horizon contract term, not a measured outage: invoices are usually payable within 30 days for ongoing alarm monitoring or static guarding. The annual report is for the year ended 30 June 2026.
Demand-cost band for the customer's small firm: small business cost was up 14 percent, to 56,600 dollars. The security firm does not record that dollar as its own expense.
Long demand-cost band: large business cost was up 219 percent, to 202,700 dollars. The licence-growth path beside it is 6.10 percent to 167,530 individual licences, which is headcount supply, not a cyber loss.
Wave 1 direct is the wholesale monitoring centre, the remote-video and customer alarm path, and the China-led alarm device. Wave 1 indirect is the ACT monitoring-centre operator who cannot run an offline console. ACSC's 3-month isolation step is customer guidance. The wave order is a planning model.
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Wave 2 indirect is the Victorian installer and the customer's cybercrime demand. Small business cost was up 14 percent. There were an 11 percent increase from last year in incidents ACSC responded to. The security firm is downstream of the customer's incident. This order is a planning model.
Wave 3 indirect is licensed guarding and the occupation, which continue. Occupation employment was 66,800. Wave 3 direct is the MA self-employed licensee, 1,525 licences, whose single login is a later target. This order is a planning model.
origin sharepercent
calculated China share of 47.3 percent
WITS Australia HS 853110 imports, 2024the page prints NSW at 36 percent
ASIAL Security Industry Licensing Report 2025price changepercent
small business cost was up 14 percent
ASD ACSC business fact sheet 2024-25large business cost was up 219 percent
ASD ACSC business fact sheet 2024-25au weekly earningsdollars
median weekly earnings of 1,818 dollars
Jobs and Skills Australia, ANZSCO 4422workforcepeople
occupation employment was 66,800
Jobs and Skills Australia, ANZSCO 4422sitescount
firm and master licences were 13,220
ASIAL Security Industry Licensing Report 2025daysdays
usually payable within 30 days
Intelligent Monitoring Group annual reportmonthsmonths
isolate vital OT and enabling systems for 3 months
ASD ACSC critical infrastructure fact sheet 2024-25ratespercent
an 11 percent increase from last year
ASD ACSC business fact sheet 2024-25Confirm the monitoring desk and the video path. IMG operates 24 hours a day, 365 days a year, for more than 800 independents. Customer CI guidance is to isolate vital OT and enabling systems for 3 months. That guidance is the customer's plan, not a measured outage at IMG.
Keep the guard roster. Occupation employment was 66,800. Do not stand down MA, MB, MC, MD, or ME licensees because an import stopped.
Split alarm-apparatus orders. The calculated China share of 47.3 percent is the China row. Do not rename Other Asia, nes as Taiwan. Check Hikvision and Dahua units against the CISA catalog.
Treat new customer calls after a cyber incident as demand. Small business cost was up 14 percent. Do not book 56,600 dollars as the security firm's loss.
Re-check state caps before adding headcount. MC is up to 14 and MD is up to 49. ME is unlimited and there are 220 of those licences. Public liability of at least 10,000,000 dollars applies if firearms, horses, or dogs are used.
Watch Queensland licences against the planning line of 24,983. The page shows a fall of 330, or 1.3 percent, to that level. National individual licences grew 6.10 percent to 167,530.
ANZSCO 4422 employment. Act when occupation employment prints below 66,800. That figure is the page's employed count. The 66,800 line is a planning line. Jobs and Skills Australia does not publish it as a covenant.
National individual security licences. Act when individual licences print below 167,530. That figure is the 31 December 2024 total. The 167,530 line is a planning line. ASIAL does not publish it as a covenant.
Queensland individual security licences. Act when Queensland individual licences print below 24,983. That figure is the 31 December 2024 level after a fall of 330. The 24,983 line is a planning line. It is not a covenant.
China share of Australian HS 853110 imports. Act when a refetched China share prints above 47.3 percent. The 47.3 percent figure is 40,396.35 divided by 85,426.10 on the 2024 table. The 47.3 percent line is a planning line. WITS does not publish it as a covenant.
Confirm the A1/R1A desk can still take the more than 800 independents.
Treat the 3-month isolation step as the customer's CI plan.
Keep ACT's 2,687 monitoring-centre operator licences in the staffing pool.
Split purchases off the calculated China share of 47.3 percent.
Use Victoria's 1,458 installer registrations as the electronic book, not the 40,942 guard licences.
Check Hikvision and Dahua firmware against the CISA catalog.
Stay inside the subclass cap: MC up to 14, MD up to 49, ME unlimited.
Do not confuse 66,800 employed with 167,530 licences.
Keep the roster if video monitoring stops. The guard is the continuing labour.
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Wholesale monitoring availability More than 800 independents take the IMS desk, 24 hours a day, 365 days a year. A weekly check is whether that desk answers. No outage-day baseline was printed.
ANZSCO 4422 employment Occupation employment was 66,800. The state shares on the page use February 2026 labour-force detail. A print below 66,800 is the planning line, not a published minimum.
China value on HS 853110 versus the world total The baseline is 40,396.35 inside 85,426.10 thousand USD, the calculated China share of 47.3 percent. A refetched table is the test.
Customer incident reports as demand ACSC responded to over 1,200 incidents, an 11 percent increase from last year. The weekly question is whether customers are asking for guards and alarms, not whether 1,200 is the security firm's incident count.
The unpublished primary is a customs dollar line that names Taiwan for cameras, sensors, alarm panels, or recorders. The low-exposure proof is the opened HS 853110 heading, which has no Taiwan row, plus the HS 852589 page, which returned a WITS error and supplied no figure. The residual label Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan and is not used as a figure. A director's prior geographic responsibility is not that customs line. That proof is the limit. It is not a published zero.
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The class 3234 page was not opened. The exclusion sentence on the class 7712 page is the source for the split. No weeks-of-lead-time figure and no measured monitoring-outage day count were printed. The 3-month figure is ACSC guidance.
Calculated figures are limited to the China share of 47.3 percent from 40,396.35 and 85,426.10. Licence percents of 36 and 49 are the page's printed labels, not a fresh ratio. Customer cost percents are printed by ACSC. IMG's more-than counts are floors, not exact censuses.
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Individual licences of 167,530 are not added to occupation employment of 66,800. Victoria's 4,530 registrations are not added to the 40,942 individual licences. ACT class descriptions are not applied to NSW numeric class codes. The 51 percent national-security-mix claim in the ASIAL narrative is not used, because the denominator is not on the page.
ACSC cost and incident figures are demand for guarding, alarms, and monitoring. They are not the security firm's loss. Top CI divisions on the fact sheet are financial services, transport, and telecommunications.
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wholesale monitoring centres | Independent installers lose the wholesale monitoring desk if the graded centres stop. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | See node sources |
| Remote video and customer alarm apps | Live video guarding and the customer video path stop when the platform stops. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | See node sources |
| China-led alarm-apparatus imports | A China trade stop removes the largest partner on the alarm-apparatus import line. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | See node sources |
| ACT monitoring-centre operators | Licensed monitoring-centre operators cannot run a console that is offline. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | See node sources |
| Victoria security-equipment installers | The installer registration book is separate from the guard licence and is the electronic-security workforce. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | See node sources |
| NSW master-licence guarding | Licensed guarding firms keep employing operatives under state subclass caps. | 0-3 months | Wave 3 (indirect) | See node sources |
| Security officer and guard employment | The occupation keeps working, and it is a smaller count than the licence roll. | 0-3 months | Wave 3 (indirect) | See node sources |
| Small master licensees | Self-employed master licensees are the thin end of the NSW licence ladder. | 12+ months | Wave 3 (direct) | See node sources |
| Customer cybercrime demand | Self-reported cybercrime costs are demand for guarding, alarms, and monitoring, not the security firm's own loss. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | See node sources |