A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Australian grocery and discretionary retail are different books. Woolworths Group sales were $71.5 billion, and the group names Woolworths supermarkets, BIG W, Petstock, and PFD. Australian Food sales were $53,852 million. W Living sales were $5,694 million. Coles has an extensive national network of 870 supermarkets, and Coles sourced all Coles Own Brand fresh meat, eggs, and milk, and 97.5 percent of fresh produce, from Australia.
Household spending rose 0.6 percent in the month, to $82,610.8 million in September 2026, and was up 6.8 percent through the year. Household spending volumes rose 0.7 percent in the quarter. Food spending moved 0.1 percent lower in the month. Furnishings and household equipment moved 0.2 percent lower. Clothing and footwear rose 0.1 percent. The food dip is small next to the supermarket sales base.
China was 27.0 percent of Australian goods imports in the DFAT 2025-26 column, at A$133,326 million, up 16.8 percent from A$114,140 million. That column is recorded trade, compiled from ABS International Trade in Goods with an August 2026 vintage and unpublished ABS data. It is all goods, including commodities, not a supermarket basket. Taiwan was 2.6 percent of Australian goods imports, at A$12,619 million.
The shelf lines that are China-heavy are parcels, not the meat case. China was 80.9 percent of Australian imports of toys. That share is calculated from China imports of 1,148,703.56 thousand U.S. dollars and world imports of 1,420,119.92 thousand U.S. dollars in 2025. China was 73.8 percent of Australian imports of furniture, calculated from 4,256,038.75 thousand U.S. dollars and 5,766,824.26 thousand U.S. dollars. The partner row named Taiwan is absent on both lines. Other Asia, nes is not used as Taiwan.
Online grocery is a minority channel on a large food book. Supermarkets eCommerce penetration reached 13.6 percent at Coles, on eCommerce sales of $5.6 billion. Woolworths eComX sales increased 18.6 percent to $8,713 million, with penetration of 17.3 percent in the fourth quarter. Group eCommerce sales were $10.6 billion.
The named retailer outage is Marks and Spencer, a U.K. retailer. Online sales decreased by 18.4 percent to £1,165.7 million, reflecting the pause in online orders, and the report records £131.3 million of costs directly related to the cyber incident. The ACSC factsheet puts the average self-reported cybercrime cost per business report at $93,500 and the medium-business average at $141,300. Enterprise exposure here is the chain's stores and sales, not that average. The 18.4 percent drop stays foreign.
A China stop does not remove Coles Own Brand fresh meat, eggs, and milk, or the 97.5 percent of fresh produce Coles sourced from Australia. Supermarket sales of $41,472 million and Australian Food sales of $53,852 million are the continuing book.
The same stop hits discretionary and marketplace goods. China was 80.9 percent of Australian imports of toys and 73.8 percent of Australian imports of furniture, both calculated. BIG W eCommerce sales were $580 million, up 11.5 percent, inside W Living sales of $5,694 million. That banner is the general-merchandise book, and it is much smaller than Australian Food.
Household spending still rose in the latest month. Household spending rose 0.6 percent in the month. Food spending moved 0.1 percent lower in the month, which is a wobble inside a continuing food budget, not a closed supermarket.
All-goods China exposure is wider than the shelf. China was 27.0 percent of Australian goods imports. Computers are the fourth-ranked import commodity at A$22,007 million and 4.5 percent of goods imports, and that commodity row is not a partner split. A supermarket does not sell that computer bill as groceries.
Taiwan on a named goods row is 2.6 percent of all goods imports, A$12,619 million, up 38.0 percent from A$9,142 million. The toy and furniture partner tables do not contain a row named Taiwan. The annual reports opened for Woolworths and Coles do not name Taiwan or China as a merchandise origin.
dfat.gov.auwits.worldbank.orgwoolworthsgroup.com.aucolesgroup.com.au
The week-1 merchant failure that does not depend on a ship is payment. Online sales decreased by 18.4 percent in the named retailer case. ACSC recorded more than 82,000 cybercrime reports and says critical-infrastructure entities should prepare to isolate systems and networks for up to 3 months. Applying that isolation window to a supermarket till is an inference.
Short-horizon spending analog: household spending rose 0.6 percent in the month, and food spending moved 0.1 percent lower in the month. These are September 2026 month-to-month prints. The 6.8 percent through-the-year rise is not the short-horizon band. Closing inventory days increased 1.1 days.
Within-half-year analog: household spending volumes rose 0.7 percent in the quarter. Supermarkets eCommerce penetration reached 13.6 percent, which is the online slice of the food book over the year that was reported, not a six-month rate by itself.
Full-year analogs: group sales increased by 3.6 percent, China was 27.0 percent of Australian goods imports, and online sales decreased by 18.4 percent in the named retailer year that included a checkout pause. Taiwan was 2.6 percent of Australian goods imports on a different line from the toy table.
woolworthsgroup.com.audfat.gov.aucorporate.marksandspencer.com
Wave 1 direct is the supermarket till and online grocery checkout. Wave 1 indirect is food inventory that cannot be sold while the till is down, and the supermarket sales outcome. ACSC preparation guidance for critical-infrastructure isolation is up to 3 months. The Marks and Spencer pause is the fetched retailer case. This order is a planning inference.
Wave 2 direct is discretionary eCommerce and marketplace seller systems, including BIG W at $580 million of eCommerce sales. Wave 2 indirect is the China toy and furniture shelf after on-hand stock runs down. China was 80.9 percent of toy imports. This order is a planning inference.
Wave 3 direct is the small retail business, inside a Retail Trade population of 156,143 and an average self-reported cost of $93,500 per business report. Wave 3 indirect is the landlord of a shop whose rent follows traffic across 1,729 group stores and 870 supermarkets. This order is a planning inference.
origin sharepercent
China was 80.9 percent of Australian imports of toys
WITS Comtrade Australia imports of HS 9503, 2025China was 27.0 percent of Australian goods imports
DFAT Australia's goods trade factsheetTaiwan was 2.6 percent of Australian goods imports
DFAT Australia's goods trade factsheetprice changepercent
Household spending rose 0.6 percent in the month
ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator, September 2026Food spending moved 0.1 percent lower in the month
ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator, September 2026Household spending volumes rose 0.7 percent in the quarter
ABS Monthly Household Spending Indicator, September 2026Online sales decreased by 18.4 percent
Marks and Spencer strategic report 2026sitesstores
an extensive national network of 870 supermarkets
Coles Group Annual Report 2026The total store network comprised 1,729 retail stores
Woolworths Group Annual Report 2026ratespercent
Supermarkets eCommerce penetration reached 13.6 percent
Coles Group Annual Report 2026daysdays
Closing inventory days increased 1.1 days
Woolworths Group Annual Report 2026Separate the food order book from parcels. Coles fresh own brand is Australian. China was 80.9 percent of toy imports.
Put supermarket tills and online grocery checkout on the week-1 list. Supermarkets eCommerce penetration reached 13.6 percent, so the till is still the main Coles sale. Online sales decreased by 18.4 percent in the named outage.
Watch the household-spending month against the 0.6 percent rise and the food move of 0.1 percent lower. October spending was unpublished, with a release on 30 November 2026.
Check closing inventory days against the 1.1 day increase and Coles inventories of $2,738 million. Do not invent a China weeks-of-cover figure.
Rewrite BIG W and marketplace open-to-buy off the toy and furniture China shares. Keep Australian Food replenishment on the $53,852 million sales base.
Treat Taiwan as the 2.6 percent goods-import row unless a later customs extract names Taiwan on a retail line. Do not fill the gap with Other Asia, nes.
Household spending, one-month percent change. Act when seasonally adjusted household spending falls by more than 0.6 percent in one month. The 0.6 percent line is a planning line set against the September rise. The ABS does not publish this covenant.
Food spending, one-month percent change. Act when food spending falls by more than 0.1 percent in a month. The 0.1 percent line is a planning line at the September food print. It is not an ABS rule.
China share of Australian goods imports. Act when China is still above 13.5 percent of Australian goods imports. Half of 27.0 is 13.5. The 13.5 line is a planning line. DFAT does not publish a minimum China share.
Closing inventory days. Act when closing inventory days rise by more than 1.1 days. The 1.1 day line is a planning line at the Woolworths increase. No covenant at 1.1 days was published.
Keep fresh own-brand replenishment on the Australian sourcing already stated by Coles.
Staff tills for a manual tender path, because online penetration at Coles is 13.6 percent.
Watch food spending against the 0.1 percent planning line and total spending against the 0.6 percent planning line.
Mark toy and furniture listings against the calculated China shares of 80.9 percent and 73.8 percent.
Do not treat the missing Taiwan row as a ready substitute volume.
Split facility headroom between Australian Food sales of $53,852 million and W Living sales of $5,694 million.
Size enterprise cyber exposure off 1,729 stores and $71.5 billion of sales, and use $141,300 only as the medium-business self-reported average.
Separate rent on supermarket boxes from rent on the 178 BIG W stores.
Do not assume a leased-unit count. The reports opened did not print one.
Household spending, current price, seasonally adjusted September was $82,610.8 million, up 0.6 percent. Food was down 0.1 percent. A weekly household series was not the page that was opened.
Supermarket eCommerce penetration Coles printed 13.6 percent. Woolworths eComX reached 17.3 percent in the fourth quarter. A break in online orders is the checkout signal.
Closing inventory days Woolworths closing inventory days increased 1.1 days. The level of days was not printed beside the increase.
China goods-import share The printed share is 27.0 percent of goods imports. Toy imports are a calculated 80.9 percent China and will not update on the same monthly page.
Cyber reports and checkout uptime ACSC received more than 82,000 cybercrime reports. The sales analog for a pause is online sales decreased by 18.4 percent.
Observed baselines are the two company reports, the September household-spending release, the business-count datacube, the DFAT goods factsheet, the two 2025 partner tables, the ACSC factsheet, and the Marks and Spencer strategic report. Inferences are wave order, origin switching, and any 2027 replay of these prints.
Unpublished on 7 November 2026: the October 2026 Monthly Household Spending Indicator, next release 30 November 2026. The Retail Trade Australia monthly turnover series was not the page opened. The business-count datacube has employment size for the whole economy and does not cross it with Retail Trade. An ACCC supermarket share page was not opened, so ALDI and Metcash shares are not stated. Woolworths and Coles do not print a China purchase percent.
Calculated figures use two printed inputs and are labeled. The toy share uses 1,148,703.56 and 1,420,119.92 thousand U.S. dollars. The furniture share uses 4,256,038.75 and 5,766,824.26 thousand U.S. dollars. Australian Food at 75.3 percent and W Living at 8.0 percent use 53,852, 5,694, and 71,539. The 13.5 planning line is half of the printed 27.0. The 0.6 and 0.1 tripwires are planning lines at the latest monthly prints.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwoolworthsgroup.com.audfat.gov.au
Limits that change a decision. No lease count was printed. No inventory-days level was printed, only the 1.1 day increase. No day count for the Marks and Spencer pause was in the text opened. That online-sales drop stays a U.K. retailer. The MyDeal notice of 14 October 2022 prints approximately 2.2 million affected customers and says the website and app were not impacted. It prints no outage day count, no store count, and no dollar. The two-week duration is the foreign Ahold Delhaize statement. The ACSC costs are not retail-only. DFAT 2025-26 goods are a recorded-trade year column with an August 2026 vintage, not a single month. Other Asia, nes was not used as Taiwan. A foundry revenue share was not used.
woolworthsgroup.com.aucorporate.marksandspencer.comcyber.gov.audfat.gov.auwoolworthsgroup.com.aunewsroom.aholddelhaize.comwits.worldbank.org
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Supermarket chains | Woolworths and Coles food sales continue on Australian fresh food. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | Woolworths Australian Food and Coles own-brand sourcing |
| Discretionary banners | BIG W and W Living are the smaller book that loses China household goods. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | W Living and BIG W sales; China toy import share |
| Marketplace and parcel sellers | Parcel and marketplace sellers carry the China toy and furniture exposure. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | 2025 toy and furniture partner tables |
| Supermarket inventory | Supermarket stock is a domestic food book, not a China toy book. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | Coles and Woolworths inventory levels; 1.1 inventory-day increase |
| Online grocery checkout | Online grocery checkout is a direct outage point and a minority of supermarket sales. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | Coles 13.6 percent penetration; Marks and Spencer online sales |
| In-store payments | A till outage stops the supermarket sale even when the food is Australian. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | Store counts; ACSC isolation guidance; Coles online share |
| Landlords of shop leases | Shop rent follows traffic, and the food network keeps trading while discretionary traffic thins. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (indirect) | Woolworths and Coles store counts; no rent roll opened |
| Small retail businesses | The retail-trade population is large and turns over, and a cyber loss hits a seller without a chain balance sheet. | 1-12 months | Wave 3 (direct) | ABS Retail Trade business count; ACSC business-report cost |
| Household-goods import shelves | Toy and furniture imports are China-heavy, and the customs row named Taiwan is absent on those lines. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (indirect) | WITS toy and furniture shares; DFAT Taiwan goods share |