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A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Retail and E-commerce — United States (Investor-Grade, Merchant Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

What stops on the shelf, what keeps selling, and what a till outage does

  1. A China stop hits imported general merchandise and nonstore parcels. It does not, on these pages, empty grocery. Grocery stores were $77,152 million in September 2026, up 0.5 percent from August and up 0.9 percent from September 2025. General merchandise was $81,776 million, down 0.1 percent from August and up 4.2 percent from a year earlier. Nonstore was $124,283 million, up 0.3 percent from August and up 8.2 percent from a year earlier.

    census.gov

  2. Walmart's own split is the chain-level version of that divide. Grocery is the majority of Walmart U.S. sales at the calculated 59.1 percent. Imports are less than one third of U.S. sales, and China is named first among import origins. The filing does not print a China percentage of purchases.

    sec.gov

  3. The shelf lines that name China in the 2025 end-use column are concentrated. Furniture, household goods was 21.7 percent China, calculated from 8,195,408,833 dollars and a world total of 37,831,928,088 dollars. Household appliances were 28.4 percent China, from 10,400,167,537 dollars and 36,625,905,275 dollars. Cell phones and other household goods were 36.1 percent China, from 39,302,587,858 dollars and 108,830,048,517 dollars. Footwear was 30.8 percent China, from 5,459,609,119 dollars and 17,733,535,446 dollars.

    census.gov

  4. Those China dollar levels already fell before this scenario. Cell phones and other household goods from China were 39.1 percent lower in 2025 than in 2024, calculated from 64,544,843,488 dollars and 39,302,587,858 dollars. The scenario is a stop from whatever level is still on the water, not a return to the 2024 dollar level.

    census.gov

  5. September imports of consumer goods were $59,842 million, up $2,355 million from August. January through September consumer-goods imports were $511,229 million against $630,222 million a year earlier, a decline of $118,992 million. The calculated decline is 18.9 percent. That comparison is nine months, not a six-month window, and it is not split by country.

    census.gov

  6. The week-1 cash event at the merchant is a till or a website, on the Marks and Spencer record of a checkout pause. Commercial Facilities includes Retail and operates with open public access. Whether a 2027 wave hits U.S. tills in that order is an inference.

    corporate.marksandspencer.comcisa.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

  • Short-horizon sales analog: general merchandise store sales moved 0.1 percent lower from the prior month, while grocery store sales rose 0.5 percent from the prior month. These are September 2026 month-to-month prints. The 4.2 percent year-over-year rise in general merchandise is not the short-horizon band.

    census.gov

  • Short-horizon stock analog: the August retailers ratio was 1.36 and the food and beverage ratio was 0.82. Target inventory typically turns in less than three months. No outage day count was printed in the Marks and Spencer text that was opened.

    census.govsec.gov

  • The day count beside those September percents is the Ahold Delhaize statement that most of the disruption was contained within two weeks. The group has U.S. banners. Stores remained open. The Marks and Spencer text still prints no day count, and online sales decreased by 18.4 percent stays the U.K. sales print.

    newsroom.aholddelhaize.comnewsroom.aholddelhaize.comcorporate.marksandspencer.com

1–6 months

  • Within-half-year sales analog: e-commerce sales rose 3.8 percent from the prior quarter. The named checkout analog is that online sales decreased by 18.4 percent in the retailer year that included the pause. The consumer-goods import decline of a calculated 18.9 percent is a January-to-September comparison, not a six-month rate.

    census.govcorporate.marksandspencer.comcensus.gov

12+ months

  • Annual sourcing analog: China imports of toys, games, and sporting goods were 37.1 percent lower than the prior year, leaving a calculated China share of 48.4 percent. Taiwan remained 4.7 percent of that line and 3.5 percent of business machines and equipment.

    census.gov

Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is the till, in-store payment, and e-commerce checkout. Wave 1 indirect is the shelf and the grocery sale that cannot be rung up, and the nonstore order that cannot be paid. CISA includes Retail in Commercial Facilities. The Marks and Spencer pause is the fetched retailer case. This order is a planning inference.

cisa.govcorporate.marksandspencer.com

Wave 2

Wave 2 is the marketplace layer behind the customer checkout: seller tools and settlement. Target Plus is the named U.S. marketplace in the filing that was opened. A physical store can still be unlocked while seller payouts stop. This order is a planning inference.

sec.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 is the distributed set and the follow-on claim. Firms with fewer than 500 employees numbered 643,115. Landlords of the 883 leased Walmart U.S. units feel the shock after sales fall. A slowed Taiwan business-machines line, at a calculated 3.5 percent, is a later hardware constraint, not the first till outage.

www2.census.govsec.govcensus.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

Downstream scale

sitesstores

Operating prints

ratespercent

ratiosratio

What to do

Day 7

  • Separate grocery replenishment from general merchandise and nonstore. The September baselines are grocery up 0.5 percent, general merchandise down 0.1 percent, and nonstore up 0.3 percent.

    census.gov

  • Put tills, in-store payment, and website checkout on the week-1 watch. Commercial Facilities includes Retail. The fetched pause cut online sales by 18.4 percent at a named retailer.

    cisa.govcorporate.marksandspencer.com

Day 30

  • Rank on-hand cover by kind of business. Food and beverage stores were 0.82. General merchandise was 1.39. Target inventory typically turns in less than three months.

    census.govsec.gov

  • List China-origin lines against the calculated 2025 shares, starting with toys at 48.4 percent, and list Taiwan lines that name Taiwan, starting with toys at 4.7 percent and business machines at 3.5 percent.

    census.gov

Day 90

  • Recut open-to-buy for any line still above the calculated China toy share, and test the named alternate origins in the Walmart filing. Those origins do not have printed shares.

    census.govsec.gov

  • Watch leased-store occupancy. Walmart U.S. leased 883 of its 4,611 retail units. A rent coverage ratio was not in the filing.

    sec.gov

What to watch

By role

Store chains

  • Split open-to-buy into grocery, which rose 0.5 percent in September, and general merchandise, which moved 0.1 percent lower.

  • Stage a manual tender path for stores that fulfill more than 97 percent of merchandise sales.

  • Count leased units the way Walmart counts 883 leased U.S. retail units.

census.govsec.govsec.gov

Marketplace sellers and pure-play sites

  • Mark listings whose origin is China against the calculated toy share of 48.4 percent and the cell-phone share of 36.1 percent.

  • Keep checkout independent of a single marketplace settlement file.

census.govsec.gov

Lenders

  • Covenant the retailer ratio of 1.36 and the general merchandise ratio of 1.39 as watch levels, and label any tripwire a planning line.

  • Size enterprise exposure off stores and sales, including 4,611 Walmart U.S. stores and $482,975 million of segment sales, not off an average incident cost.

census.govsec.gov

Landlords of shops

  • Ask which of the leased boxes are general merchandise versus grocery.

  • Tie rent talks to the 0.5 percent monthly planning line on general merchandise, not to a grocery continuation.

sec.govcensus.gov

Weekly checks

What is not known

Working papers: node summary
NodePrimary impactTime horizonCyber waveEvidence
General merchandise storesChina-made general merchandise stops replenishing, and the latest month was already slightly down.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)Census September sales; end-use China shares; Walmart segment mix
Grocery storesGrocery sales continue on domestic food and a short inventory cover.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)Census grocery month; food inventory ratio; Walmart grocery sales
Nonstore retailersNonstore and e-commerce sales lose China parcels and are exposed at the website.0-6 monthsWave 1 (direct)Census nonstore sales and quarterly e-commerce share
Marketplace sellersMarketplace sellers lose China listings the host retailer does not own.1-6 monthsWave 2 (direct)Target 10-K on Target Plus and import origin
Store inventoryGeneral merchandise on hand covers a little over one month of sales.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)August inventory ratios; Target inventory turn
Point-of-sale and in-store paymentsA till or in-store payment outage stops the sale while the shelf is still full.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)CISA retail subsector; Target store fulfillment; Marks and Spencer pause
E-commerce checkoutA checkout pause stops online orders even when the warehouse still holds the goods.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)Marks and Spencer online sales; Census e-commerce; Walmart eCommerce dollars
Landlords of leased shopsRent on leased shops follows if stores cut hours after a stock or payment shock.1-12 monthsWave 3 (indirect)Walmart U.S. owned and leased unit counts
Business-machine store systemsThe business-machines import line that can sit in a store system has a small named Taiwan share.1-12 monthsWave 3 (indirect)End-use business machines, with computers held out as not the shelf

Sources