chinese-war.com

A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Aerospace and Defense Manufacturing — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

Why US aerospace and defence manufacturing gets hit, and what keeps moving

  1. Step one is the parts invoice, not the whole industry. China was $343,794.06 thousand of 2024 US imports of aircraft parts nes. The United Kingdom was $2,162,721.98 thousand, Japan was $1,814,473.52 thousand, France was $1,597,863.20 thousand, Mexico was $1,370,582.28 thousand, and Canada was $1,308,436.63 thousand. Those flows continue. The 2.45 percent China share is calculated here from 343,794.06 and 14,005,459.26. HS 880330 does not include the engine chapter.

    wits.worldbank.org

  2. Step two is titanium, and it is not a China invoice. USGS import sources for sponge in 2021-24 were Japan 77 percent, Saudi Arabia 13 percent, Kazakhstan 8 percent, and other 2 percent. Through July 2025 the leading sources were Japan 73 percent, Kazakhstan 13 percent, and Saudi Arabia 13 percent. Those named sources keep shipping sponge when China trade stops. The customs value of imported sponge was about $460 million in 2025, a 3 percent increase compared with $447 million in 2024. The price was $13.30 per kilogram in 2024 and the 2025 estimate was $12 per kilogram.

    pubs.usgs.gov

  3. China is still the large sponge producer. Estimated Chinese sponge production was 256,000 metric tons in 2024 and 260,000 metric tons in 2025, against world totals of 380,000 and 370,000 metric tons. A stop can move the world price and third-country availability even though China is not on the US sponge import list. USGS does not print a US mill-product import share from China on this page.

    pubs.usgs.gov

  4. Step three is military-grade electronics inputs that China has already restricted. GAO states that in 2024 China imposed export restrictions on gallium and germanium, two elements critical for military-grade electronics. The page does not print a US defence consumption tonnage for either metal.

    files.gao.gov

  5. Step four is Taiwan, and the low-exposure proof is the opened table. The WITS HS 880330 partner table names no Taiwan partner and no Taipei partner. The content share inside an aircraft is unpublished. DOD estimates 88 percent of microelectronics production and 98 percent of assembly, packaging, and testing are overseas, primarily in Taiwan, South Korea, and China. That pair is a multi-country overseas share, not a Taiwan share and not the chip share of a named aircraft or engine. DOD procured $1.3 billion of electronic microcircuits in fiscal years 2020 to 2024, and FPDS identifies the United States as the place of manufacture for nearly 100 percent of those obligations. GAO says that label does not show where the microelectronics were made.

    files.gao.govwits.worldbank.org

  6. Step five is the plant and the shop. The short-horizon analog is one quarter. Fourth-quarter commercial deliveries were 57 against 157, and the company reported the delivery change as 64 percent. Fourth-quarter Commercial Airplanes revenue was $4,762 million against $10,481 million. For the full year, deliveries were 348 against 528, and the company reported the full-year delivery change as 34 percent. Defence, space, and security still delivered 112 units and recorded revenue of $23,918 million.

    prnewswire.com

  7. Services did not stop in that same year. Boeing Global Services revenue was $19,954 million. GE sales of services were $24,847 million, and the release says a 26 percent increase in material inputs from the first half to the second half of 2024 supported services. In a war path, that services line continues only while rotables, castings, and certificates still move. That continuation is scenario inference, not a 2024 fact.

    prnewswire.comsec.gov

  8. Wave 1 is the gateway and the utility, not the repair station. CISA says Volt Typhoon actors are seeking to pre-position on IT networks for disruptive or destructive activity against US critical infrastructure in a major crisis or conflict. Assigning ports to Wave 1 and repair stations to Wave 3 is planning inference from that framing. The measured aviation incident is separate. Delta's 8-K says the CrowdStrike-caused outage disrupted Delta's operations, causing approximately 7,000 flight cancellations over five days. That count is the Delta airline incident, not a defence-sustainment plant and not Volt Typhoon.

    cisa.govsec.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

  • Short-horizon analog, one quarter: the company reported the delivery change as 64 percent. Fourth-quarter revenue for Commercial Airplanes was $4,762 million against $10,481 million. The 34 percent full-year delivery change is not this band. Inside the same band, a fetched day count is causing approximately 7,000 flight cancellations over five days, and the FAA page records a four-week, post-strike ramp up. The FAA has given Boeing 90 days to outline its action plan. No monthly aerospace price index was opened.

    prnewswire.comsec.govfaa.gov

1–6 months

  • Accumulated analog: the company reported the full-year delivery change as 34 percent, on 348 deliveries against 528. Inside a working chain, material inputs rose 26 percent from the first half to the second half of 2024. A war half-year can reverse that 26 percent move. The reversal is inference.

    prnewswire.comsec.gov

12+ months

  • Metals analog, full year: the sponge price was $13.30 per kilogram in 2024 against $12.30 in 2023, and the calculated sponge-price rise is 8.1 percent. Customs value of imported sponge then rose a printed 3 percent, to about $460 million in 2025 from $447 million in 2024, while the 2025 price estimate fell to $12. Price and value did not move together.

    pubs.usgs.gov

Wave 1

Critical infrastructure and chokepoints. CISA says Volt Typhoon is pre-positioning for disruptive or destructive activity against US critical infrastructure in a crisis or conflict. In this industry that is ports, airports, fuel, and the power feeding plants. The assignment of specific nodes is inference. The measured aviation fact is separate: causing approximately 7,000 flight cancellations over five days, and damages caused by the outage, which total at least $500 million. Both figures are the Delta CrowdStrike airline incident on the company 8-K, not a Volt Typhoon count and not a defence-plant loss.

cisa.govsec.gov

Wave 2

Enterprise production, importer, distributor, and program systems. Primes, engine shops, and defence contract systems sit here. The tag is planning inference.

cisa.gov

Wave 3

Distributed repair stations, mechanics' employers, and avionics benches. They are later and numerous. The tag is planning inference.

cisa.gov

Country exposure

parts importsthousand US dollars

2,162,721.98levelUnited Kingdom

The United Kingdom was $2,162,721.98 thousand

WITS UN Comtrade

Cost and delivery shock by time bucket

price changepercent

64decline0-3 monthsQuarter delivery change

the company reported the delivery change as 64 percent

Boeing
34decline1-6 monthsFull-year delivery change

the company reported the full-year delivery change as 34 percent

Boeing
8.1increase12+ monthsSponge price change

the calculated sponge-price rise is 8.1 percent

USGS

Downstream scale

workforcepeople

140,000levelAircraft mechanics

held about 140,000 jobs

BLS
19,800levelAvionics technicians

held about 19,800 jobs

BLS

Operating prints

us marginpercent

26.2levelCES operating margin

Commercial Engines and Services operating margin was 26.2 percent

GE Aerospace

us cashmillion USD

13,801levelBoeing year-end cash

year-end cash was $13,801 million

Boeing
13,619levelGE cash and restricted cash

cash and restricted cash were $13,619 million

GE Aerospace
24,847levelGE services revenue

services revenue was $24,847 million

GE Aerospace

us shipmentsthousand US dollars

47,537,406levelEngine and engine parts shipments

engine and engine parts shipments were 47,537,406 thousand dollars

FRED Census AIES

incident flightsflights

7,000levelDelta cancellations

causing approximately 7,000 flight cancellations over five days

Delta Air Lines

action daysdays

90levelFAA action-plan deadline

The FAA has given Boeing 90 days to outline its action plan.

FAA

What to do

Day 7

  • Split the open purchase orders into the China slice and the continuing slice. China was $343,794.06 thousand of aircraft parts nes. The United Kingdom, Japan, France, Mexico, and Canada are the continuing named sources on that line.

    wits.worldbank.org

  • Confirm sponge origin against the USGS list. Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan are the named sponge sources. China is not.

    pubs.usgs.gov

Day 30

  • Put a manual release path next to the enterprise system. CISA's Volt Typhoon advisory is about persistent access for disruption of critical infrastructure in a crisis. A prime's planning system is a Wave 2 problem, not a reason to wait for a sector-specific alert.

    cisa.gov

  • Rank shop-visit kits against new-engine kits. GE sales of services were $24,847 million and equipment sales were $10,274 million. The larger cash line is the visit.

    sec.gov

Day 90

  • Re-cut the delivery plan off the quarter analog. The company reported the delivery change as 64 percent when the line stopped, with commercial backlog still $435,175 million. Backlog did not deliver the airplanes.

    prnewswire.com

What to watch

By role

Airframe prime

  • Freeze the China-origin SKU list and keep the UK, Japan, France, Mexico, and Canada lanes staffed.

  • Re-sequence to units that do not need the missing chip or forging. Do not treat the $435,175 million commercial backlog as parts on the shelf.

  • Keep a manual ship-and-bill path for the week the enterprise system is down.

wits.worldbank.orgprnewswire.com

Engine prime and shop

  • Protect shop-visit kits ahead of new-engine kits. Services were $24,847 million.

  • Hold sponge cover with Japan, Saudi Arabia, and Kazakhstan. Track the price against $13.30 per kilogram.

  • Watch the half-year material-input print. The 2024 recovery was 26 percent from the first half to the second half.

sec.govpubs.usgs.gov

Missile and combat-aircraft prime

  • Separate lot funding risk from parts risk. Lockheed Martin net sales were $71,043 million across more than the F-35, and the opened release does not isolate the F-35 dollar.

  • Ask which microcircuits in the $1.3 billion FPDS set are only labelled US. GAO says the label is not the factory.

nasdaq.comfiles.gao.gov

Parts importer and distributor

  • Reorder safety stock on the China slice of $343,794.06 thousand only where no UK, Japan, France, Mexico, or Canada part exists.

  • Do not build months of cover on allied parts that are still moving, unless a gateway KPI breaks.

wits.worldbank.org

Repair station and airline maintenance

  • Pre-draw the rotable pool for the fleet that is already here. Mechanics held about 140,000 jobs. New deliveries are the swing factor, not the fleet in the hangar.

  • Keep paper copies of the maintenance release path for a Wave 3 outage of the station's own software.

bls.gov

Defence program office

  • Treat origin visibility as unfinished. GAO says DOD has over 200,000 suppliers and little insight into foreign dependency for most of them.

  • Flag gallium and germanium lots against the 2024 Chinese restrictions before the next acceptance.

files.gao.gov

Weekly checks

What is not known

Working papers: node summary
NodePrimary impactTime horizonCyber waveEvidence
Commercial airframe primesDelivery shortfalls and cash burn when a missing part or a plant-system outage stops the line.0–12 monthsWave 2 (direct)prnewswire.com
Engine makers and engine shopsShop-visit cash has to keep moving when new-engine units slip.0–12 monthsWave 2 (direct)sec.gov
Combat-aircraft and missile primesProduction and sustainment billings pause when a lot lacks parts, funding, or enterprise systems.0–12 monthsWave 2 (direct)nasdaq.com
Aircraft-parts importersThe China slice of this parts line stops, while the allied sources keep shipping unless a gateway fails.0–6 monthsWave 2 (direct)worldbank.org
Aerospace services and parts distributionServices cash continues only while warehouses and customers can still take certified parts.0–12 monthsWave 2 (direct)sec.gov
Airline operatorsNew aircraft and spare engines arrive late, so flying hours and shop visits bunch up.1–12 monthsWave 2 (indirect)prnewswire.com
Aircraft mechanics and service techniciansRepair labour waits on parts and airworthiness data.1–12 monthsWave 3 (direct)bls.gov
Avionics techniciansBench work waits on boxes whose chips are not in the local crib.1–12 monthsWave 3 (indirect)bls.gov
Ports and air gatewaysInbound parts and outbound airframes stop at the gateway.0–3 monthsWave 1 (direct)cisa.gov
Inland freight of aerospace partsParts that clear the gateway still miss the plant or the hangar.0–3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)worldbank.org
Independent repair stationsSmall stations lose work and cash when OEM parts and manuals are cut off.1–12 monthsWave 3 (direct)bls.gov
Defence program officesAcceptance and lot funding stall when prime systems or parts traceability fail.0–12 monthsWave 2 (direct)gao.gov

Sources