A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
The calculated Viet Nam share is 36.4 percent.
Viet Nam module imports were 5,529,804,488 dollars. The world module preview was 15,193,756,743 dollars. The calculated Viet Nam share uses those two values. The partner row is reported. The world row is an aggregate preview.
The calculated China module share is 0.16 percent.
China module imports were 24,445,316 dollars on the same world preview of 15,193,756,743 dollars. A China trade stop removes that row. It leaves the larger partner rows in place.
The calculated Thailand share is 20.3 percent.
Thailand module imports were 3,089,287,049 dollars. The calculated Malaysia share is 13.6 percent. Malaysia module imports were 2,061,012,960 dollars. The calculated India share is 10.5 percent. India module imports were 1,601,451,399 dollars. The calculated Cambodia share is 9.1 percent. Cambodia module imports were 1,382,695,739 dollars. These shares are pairwise. They are not added into a new coverage percent.
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The calculated China share is 69.0 percent.
That 69.0 percent figure is China lithium-ion battery imports of 16,457,945,481 dollars divided by the world preview of 23,848,684,743 dollars. The heading is lithium-ion batteries, wider than stationary storage. A separate storage-system breakout exists on the tariff search and is not priced here.
The calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent.
The June row prints 0.34 dollars per peak watt. The July row prints 0.41 dollars per peak watt. The one-month rise uses those two monthly averages. The June shipments row is 2,946,753 peak kilowatts, so the 0.34 print is the month, not the annual row that carries the same average.
The calculated three-month rise is 32.4 percent.
The September row in that run-up prints 0.45 dollars per peak watt. The three-month rise uses 0.45 and the June 0.34. The latest average on the monthly series is 0.29 dollars per peak watt.
Utility-scale solar stood at 166,677.0 megawatts.
Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August.
Small-scale solar stood at 63,192.6 megawatts.
Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August.
Utility-scale batteries stood at 54,097.0 megawatts.
Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August.
The table also prints estimated total solar of 229,869.6 megawatts. That total is the printed table value. It is not a new sum in this note.
The co-located share this year is over 16 percent.
The utility-scale solar addition count is 716 generators.
Nameplate solar additions were 29,644.6 megawatts.
Net summer solar additions on that table were 29,459.1 megawatts. Other Energy Sources additions were 16,448.2 megawatts. That category includes batteries among hydrogen, waste, steam, sulfur, tire-derived fuel, and miscellaneous sources. It is not a battery total.
Developers plan to add 43.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar. The prior-year utility-scale solar addition on that page was 27.2 gigawatts. Developers plan to add 24 gigawatts of utility-scale battery storage. The record battery addition was 15 gigawatts. These are plans and observed addition prints. They are not a forecast of the conflict.
What keeps being installed is on EIA Table 6.1. Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August. Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August. Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August. China module imports of 24,445,316 dollars stop. The calculated China module share is 0.16 percent, using 24,445,316 over the world preview of 15,193,756,743. The calculated Viet Nam share is 36.4 percent. Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Cambodia module rows are not China rows.
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Cell imports continue from non-China partners unless a separate disruption hits them. The calculated Malaysia cell share is 31.9 percent. Malaysia cells were 608,842,923 dollars. The calculated Korea cell share is 30.7 percent. Korea cells were 584,480,142 dollars. The calculated Thailand cell share is 17.8 percent. Thailand cells were 339,119,239 dollars. The calculated Viet Nam cell share is 5.9 percent. Viet Nam cells were 112,051,560 dollars. The calculated China cell share is 0.03 percent. China cells were 622,456 dollars. The cell world preview is 1,906,684,342 dollars.
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The lithium-ion batteries heading is the China customs line that is large. The calculated China share is 69.0 percent. Stopping China trade stops that reported row. The heading includes vehicle batteries and other lithium-ion batteries, so the stationary-storage slice inside it is unpublished.
Operating projects do not need a Chinese module row to describe their size. Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August. Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August. Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August.
Week-1 cyber risk is plant control and inverter fleet monitoring. The Sungrow advisory is the product evidence. More than 80 percent of energy infrastructure is privately owned. Installer business systems are the later direct set.
Taiwan on the four opened headings is an empty preview beside reported rows, not a foundry share. Other Asia, nes module imports were 2,013,915 dollars. That partner is not Taiwan.
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Short-horizon price analog: the calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent, from the June average of 0.34 dollars per peak watt to the July average of 0.41 dollars per peak watt. This is a one-month move. A year-over-year peak is not the figure in this band.
Short-horizon volume analog: utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August, utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August, and small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August.
Accumulated price analog: the calculated three-month rise is 32.4 percent, from 0.34 dollars per peak watt to 0.45 dollars per peak watt.
Nameplate solar additions were 29,644.6 megawatts. That is a full-year addition print, used here as scale for a half-year disruption, not as the one-month analog.
Long-horizon build, not a price percent: developers plan to add 43.4 gigawatts of utility-scale solar and 24 gigawatts of utility-scale battery storage. The later co-located plan share is more than 30 percent.
The shipment-price series does not extend a war-year index. The latest average on the monthly series is 0.29 dollars per peak watt, and the next release is suspended.
Wave 1 direct is inverter fleet monitoring, utility-scale solar projects, and battery projects. Wave 1 indirect is cell importers and lithium-ion battery importers, who lose a China cargo because trade stops, not because their own network is the first target. The Sungrow advisory header prints a CVSS v4 score of 9.5 for iSolarCloud and WiNet. That score is the advisory rating for those inverter fleet-monitoring products, not a count of plants offline and not an outage length. The energy-sector page is the infrastructure baseline. The ordering is a planning inference.
Wave 2 direct is module-buyer systems and project-lender systems. Orders and drawdowns can stop while the plant is up. This ordering is a planning inference.
Wave 3 direct is rooftop installers. The operating set is small-scale solar at 63,192.6 megawatts. A shop-system outage is later than a plant-control outage. This ordering is a planning inference.
origin sharepercent
The calculated Viet Nam share is 36.4 percent.
UN ComtradeThe calculated China module share is 0.16 percent.
UN ComtradeThe calculated China share is 69.0 percent.
UN Comtradeprice changepercent
The calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent.
EIA Form EIA-63B Table 3The calculated three-month rise is 32.4 percent.
EIA Form EIA-63B Table 3month additionsmegawatts
Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August.
EIA Table 6.1Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August.
EIA Table 6.1Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August.
EIA Table 6.1us megawattsmegawatts
Utility-scale solar stood at 166,677.0 megawatts.
EIA Table 6.1Small-scale solar stood at 63,192.6 megawatts.
EIA Table 6.1Utility-scale batteries stood at 54,097.0 megawatts.
EIA Table 6.1Nameplate solar additions were 29,644.6 megawatts.
EIA Electric Power Annual Table 4.6countscount
The utility-scale solar addition count is 716 generators.
EIA Electric Power Annual Table 4.6ratespercent
The co-located share this year is over 16 percent.
EIA Today in EnergyList purchase orders on HS 854143 and HS 850760 that name China. The China module line is 24,445,316 dollars for the preview year. The China lithium-ion line is 16,457,945,481 dollars.
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Confirm whether operating fleets use iSolarCloud or WiNet. The advisory covers app version 2.1.6 and prior and all WiNet firmware versions.
Watch the monthly module average against the one-month analog. The calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent.
Watch August-scale addition prints. Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August. Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August. Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August.
Re-source cells toward Malaysia and Korea if a China cell order was in the book. China cells were 622,456 dollars. Malaysia and Korea are the large reported cell rows.
Keep the lender case on the plan gigawatts and on co-location. The co-located share this year is over 16 percent. Reported plans could raise the share to 19 percent. The later co-located plan share is more than 30 percent.
Monthly module average value, one-month percent change. Act when the monthly average module value rises by more than 20.6 percent in one month. The calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent, from 0.34 to 0.41 dollars per peak watt. The 20.6 percent line is a planning line. EIA does not publish that covenant.
Utility-scale battery additions, megawatts in the month. Act when utility-scale battery additions in a month print below 371.7 megawatts. Half of 743.4 is 371.7, and that half is calculated. The 371.7 megawatt line is a planning line. EIA does not publish that covenant.
Utility-scale solar additions, megawatts in the month. Act when utility-scale solar additions in a month print below 655.0 megawatts. Half of 1,310.0 is 655.0, and that half is calculated. The 655.0 megawatt line is a planning line. EIA does not publish that covenant.
Small-scale solar additions, megawatts in the month. Act when small-scale solar additions in a month print below 215.1 megawatts. Half of 430.2 is 215.1, and that half is calculated. The 215.1 megawatt line is a planning line. EIA does not publish that covenant.
Viet Nam module import value, dollars. Act when a module-import reading for Viet Nam prints below 2,764,902,244 dollars. Half of 5,529,804,488 is 2,764,902,244, and that half is calculated. The 2,764,902,244 dollar line is a planning line. The preview is an annual value, not a monthly covenant.
Keep Viet Nam, Thailand, Malaysia, India, and Cambodia on the module book.
Keep Malaysia and Korea on the cell book.
Drop only the China rows, and do not relabel Other Asia, nes as Taiwan.
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Patch or isolate iSolarCloud Android versions through 2.1.6 and WiNet firmware.
Separate fleet-monitoring access from plant controls.
Split lithium-ion purchase orders into China and non-China.
Track the monthly battery addition against the 371.7 megawatt planning line.
Underwrite the 43.4 gigawatt solar plan and the 24 gigawatt battery plan as plans.
Do not use an average cybercrime cost as the enterprise loss.
Monthly module average value, dollars per peak watt The June row is 0.34 and the July row is 0.41. The calculated one-month rise is 20.6 percent. The series is monthly, so the watch is the next monthly print, not a daily quote.
Utility-scale solar additions, megawatts in the month Utility-scale solar added 1,310.0 megawatts in August. A break versus that month is the project-build signal.
Utility-scale battery additions, megawatts in the month Utility-scale batteries added 743.4 megawatts in August. Half of that print is the planning line of 371.7 megawatts.
Small-scale solar additions, megawatts in the month Small-scale solar added 430.2 megawatts in August. That is the installer run-rate.
Viet Nam module import value, dollars The preview-year line is 5,529,804,488 dollars. A break in that continuing partner matters more than the China module line of 24,445,316 dollars.
Calculated shares use two preview values and are labeled. Viet Nam modules 5,529,804,488 over world 15,193,756,743 is 36.4 percent. China modules 24,445,316 over that world value is 0.16 percent. Thailand 3,089,287,049 is 20.3 percent. Malaysia modules 2,061,012,960 is 13.6 percent. India 1,601,451,399 is 10.5 percent. Cambodia 1,382,695,739 is 9.1 percent. Malaysia cells 608,842,923 over world cells 1,906,684,342 is 31.9 percent. Korea cells 584,480,142 is 30.7 percent. Thailand cells 339,119,239 is 17.8 percent. Viet Nam cells 112,051,560 is 5.9 percent. China cells 622,456 is 0.03 percent. China lithium-ion 16,457,945,481 over world 23,848,684,743 is 69.0 percent. The price rises use 0.41 over 0.34 and 0.45 over 0.34. The planning halves use 743.4, 1,310.0, 430.2, and 5,529,804,488 divided by two.
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World denominators are aggregate previews and are not reporter returns. Partner numerators used above are reported. Shares are not summed across partners. Quantity-unit abbreviations are null, so watts are not inferred from quantity.
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Country of origin is not published. The cell shipment table is no longer published. September imports of 1,697,396 peak kilowatts are not divided by September shipments of 3,739,792 peak kilowatts. A domestic-content percent is not stated. The opened USITC publication prints Taiwan duty margins, not a Taiwan watt share.
HS 850760 is lithium-ion batteries, not a stationary-storage line. HS 850440 is static converters, not a solar-inverter line. The China static-converter dollar value is omitted on purpose. Taiwan empty rows are a low-exposure proof on those headings, not a positive equipment share. Other Asia, nes is not Taiwan. Wave order and the planning lines are inferences. The stale generation mix on the CISA energy page is not used. Installer employment and days of module inventory were not on the pages opened.
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| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Module buyers | Module buyers keep a Viet Nam-led module book, and the China module row is a small customs line. | 0-3 months | Wave 2 (direct) | UN Comtrade HS 854143 preview, Viet Nam and China |
| Inverter suppliers | Inverter suppliers face a direct fleet-monitoring exposure on the Sungrow cloud and firmware advisory. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | CISA ICSA-25-072-12 |
| Battery projects | Battery projects sit on a large utility-scale fleet and on a month of additions that is already printed. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | EIA Table 6.1 batteries and the 2026 plan note |
| Rooftop installers | Rooftop installers keep a large distributed fleet, and their business systems are the later direct target. | 1-6 months | Wave 3 (direct) | EIA Table 6.1 small-scale solar |
| Utility-scale solar projects | Utility-scale solar projects added capacity in the latest month on top of a large operating fleet. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | EIA Table 6.1 utility-scale solar |
| Cell importers | Cell importers still move a multi-partner cell book, and the China cell row is tiny. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | UN Comtrade HS 854142 preview |
| Project lenders | Project lenders are underwriting a year of planned solar and battery additions, not an average cybercrime cost. | 1-6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | EIA preliminary capacity plans |
| Lithium-ion battery importers | Lithium-ion battery importers hold the large China customs exposure, and the heading is wider than stationary storage. | 0-3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | UN Comtrade HS 850760 preview |