chinese-war.com

A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Logistics: Warehousing and 3PL — United States (Investor-Grade)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

What stops at the dock door, what keeps replenishing, and what a WMS outage halts

  1. China trade stopping removes the China-origin slice of inbound cartons. At Southern California, China's share was 47.5 percent of containerized import tonnage by last year. Nationally the same note prints 26.7 percent. Domestic replenishment does not depend on that slice. Seasonally adjusted warehousing employment was still 1,839.2 thousand in October 2026.

    pmsaship.comdata.bls.gov

  2. Non-China imports on the Los Angeles card continue in the baseline. CY 2025 cargo value lines are Vietnam $48 billion, Japan $45 billion, South Korea $21 billion, and Taiwan $18 billion, beside China/Hong Kong at $82 billion inside $301 billion. Calculated Taiwan cargo-value share is 6.0 percent of 301. Furniture at 680,016 TEUs is demand context for the deconsolidation building, not a warehouse sales line.

    portoflosangeles.org

  3. Census goods trade with China is demand context for the cartons, not warehouse revenue. The 2025 total is exports 105,977.8 and imports 308,651.9, balance -202,674.1, in millions of nominal U.S. dollars, not seasonally adjusted. The 2024 import total is 440,319.4. The 2026 total through September is imports 215,008.6. A warehouse handling-fee series is not on that page.

    census.gov

  4. The building does not start empty. Prologis Total U.S. occupied 95.7 percent across 3,643 buildings. Lehigh Valley, an inland market, occupied 91.4 percent across 82 buildings. A China stop changes future inbound. It is not a printed vacancy collapse on the 30 September 2026 portfolio.

    d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net

  5. The week-1 operating break inside the building is the hosted system. Blue Yonder's managed services hosted environment was hit on 21 November 2024. On 2 December 2024 several customers were back and others were not. Morrisons and Sainsbury's were affected. Starbucks said managers were calculating pay manually. The calculated span is 11 days. CISA does not list warehousing among the seven transportation modes. The nearest named mode is Postal and Shipping.

    techcrunch.comcisa.gov

  6. Handling equipment is a separate chain from the carton. In 2024, U.S. imports of HS 8427 fork-lift and other works trucks were 8,066,783.60 thousand U.S. dollars and 811,235 items. China was 732,510.21 thousand U.S. dollars and 585,796 items. Calculated from those pairs, China's value share is 9.1 percent and China's unit share is 72.2 percent. The United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, and Korea lead the value table. No row is labeled Taiwan.

    wits.worldbank.org

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

  • Short-horizon price analog: from December 2021 at 124.514 to January 2022 at 135.008 the index rose 8.4 percent. The 8.4 percent figure is calculated from those two monthly prints. It is not a year-over-year peak. The current preliminary pair is a calculated 0.7 percent from August 2026 at 165.628 to September 2026 at 166.867.

    data.bls.gov

  • Short-horizon outage analog: the Blue Yonder hosted environment was hit on 21 November 2024 and the TechCrunch update is 2 December 2024. The calculated span is 11 days, and recovery was still incomplete. A second one-month price print, April 2026 at 178.706 to May 2026 at 169.441, is a calculated decline of 5.2 percent.

    techcrunch.comdata.bls.gov

1–6 months

  • Half-year price analog: January 2022 printed 135.008 and June 2022 printed 131.922. By June 2022 the index was 2.3 percent lower. That figure is calculated from those two prints. It is the give-back after the one-month spike, not a new shock.

    data.bls.gov

12+ months

  • Year price analog: from December 2021 at 124.514 to December 2022 at 142.826 the index rose 14.7 percent. The 14.7 percent figure is calculated from those two prints. The trade backdrop over a longer window is China's Southern California tonnage share moving from 60.1 percent in 2015 to 47.5 percent by last year.

    data.bls.govpmsaship.com

Wave 1

Wave 1 direct is the hosted logistics platform and the public 3PL operator that runs on it. The observed path is Blue Yonder from 21 November 2024 to the 2 December 2024 update. The calculated span is 11 days. Wave 1 indirect is the China carton hitting import-deconsolidation warehouses, e-commerce fulfillment warehouses, and warehouse labor. CISA lists seven transportation modes and does not list warehousing. Postal and Shipping is the nearest mode.

techcrunch.comcisa.govcisa.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 direct is cold-storage controls, after the hosted WMS. Wave 2 indirect is automation vendors, because the HS 8427 unit share is a trade fact, and industrial landlords, because occupancy of 95.7 percent does not reprice in the week of a software outage. This ordering is a planning inference.

www2.census.govwits.worldbank.orgd1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.net

Wave 3

Wave 3 indirect is inland replenishment, which keeps domestic volume. Wave 3 direct is the small public warehouse. SUSB counts 5,146 firms with fewer than 20 employees. They are not the week-1 hosted platform. This ordering is a planning inference.

www2.census.govd1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.netcisa.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

47.5levelSouthern California China import tonnage

China's share was 47.5 percent

PMSA

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

8.4increase0-3 monthsgeneral-warehousing PPI, one month

rose 8.4 percent

BLS PPI
2.3decline1-6 monthsgeneral-warehousing PPI, January to June 2022

was 2.3 percent lower

BLS PPI
14.7increase12+ monthsgeneral-warehousing PPI, December to December

rose 14.7 percent

BLS PPI

outage daysdays

11level0-3 monthsBlue Yonder hosted-environment span

The calculated span is 11 days

TechCrunch

Downstream scale

buildingsbuildings

employeesemployees

1,901,976levelQCEW warehousing employment 2025

1,901,976 employees

BLS QCEW

Operating prints

occupancypercent

weekly paydollars

1,091levelQCEW average weekly wage

weekly wage was 1,091 dollars

BLS QCEW

What to do

Day 7

  • Separate China-origin inbound from domestic replenishment and from the Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan lines on the port card. The Southern California tonnage baseline is 47.5 percent. The Los Angeles China/Hong Kong value baseline is $82 billion.

    pmsaship.comportoflosangeles.org

  • Put the hosted WMS and the 3PL control system on the week-1 watch. The Blue Yonder record is a hosted environment still partly down after a calculated span of 11 days.

    techcrunch.comcisa.gov

Day 30

  • Watch the general-warehousing PPI against the one-month analog. From 124.514 to 135.008 the index rose 8.4 percent. The latest preliminary pair, August 2026 at 165.628 to September 2026 at 166.867, is a calculated 0.7 percent and is the run-rate, not the shock case.

    data.bls.gov

  • Watch Prologis-style occupancy against 95.7 percent and CES employment against 1,839.2 thousand. A debt-covenant occupancy floor was not extracted from the pages read.

    d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.netdata.bls.gov

Day 90

  • Count fork-lift units by origin. China is a calculated 72.2 percent of HS 8427 items and a calculated 9.1 percent of value. Do not treat a missing Taiwan row as a zero that was printed. The share is unpublished.

    wits.worldbank.org

  • Keep cold storage on its own labor base. NAICS 49312 employment is 57,210, and the 5,000-plus cell is 33,971. Do not apply a general-warehousing vacancy anecdote to that tier. None was used.

    www2.census.gov

What to watch

By role

Public warehouse and 3PL operators

  • Split the door log into China-origin, other-Asia, and domestic replenishment before week 1.

  • Stage a manual receive-and-pick path sized to the 11-day hosted-outage analog.

  • Keep cold storage on the NAICS 49312 labor base rather than the general-warehouse PPI.

portoflosangeles.orgtechcrunch.comwww2.census.gov

E-commerce fulfillment operators

  • Assume domestic replenishment continues at the current employment print of 1,839.2 thousand.

  • Remove China-origin units from the promise date. Leave Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan on the port card until those lines themselves stop.

data.bls.govportoflosangeles.org

Industrial landlords and lenders

  • Underwrite week 1 off handling volume, not off a vacancy collapse. The starting occupancy is 95.7 percent.

  • Treat 95.7 percent and 4.2 percent as planning lines. Do not describe them as covenants extracted from the supplemental.

d1io3yog0oux5.cloudfront.netdata.bls.gov

Automation buyers

  • Count HS 8427 units separately from value. China is 72.2 percent of units and 9.1 percent of value.

  • Do not book a Taiwan replacement share. The row is absent.

wits.worldbank.org

Weekly checks

What is not known

Working papers: node summary
NodePrimary impactTime horizonCyber waveEvidence
Import-deconsolidation warehousesChina-origin inbound into West Coast deconsolidation warehouses stops, while Vietnam, Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan cargo on the same port card can still arrive.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)PMSA Southern California tonnage share; Port of Los Angeles CY 2025 card
E-commerce fulfillment warehousesFulfillment buildings keep domestic replenishment, and China-origin cartons into those buildings stop.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)BLS CES warehousing employment; PMSA tonnage share
Public 3PL operatorsA hosted logistics-software outage stops picks and receipts while the building is still standing.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)TechCrunch Blue Yonder account; Prologis occupancy
Warehouse laborHours follow the lost China-origin cartons, against a national warehousing headcount that is still fully staffed in the latest print.0-3 monthsWave 1 (indirect)BLS CES and QCEW; TechCrunch payroll symptom
Warehouse management systemsA hosted managed-services outage stops directed work even when the dock is open.0-3 monthsWave 1 (direct)TechCrunch Blue Yonder hosted environment; CISA mode list
Cold-storage warehousesRefrigerated warehousing is a smaller employment base, and a control-system outage is a direct hit on product that cannot sit warm.1-6 monthsWave 2 (direct)SUSB NAICS 49312
Automation and racking vendorsChina-origin fork-lift units are a large share of pieces and a smaller share of value, and no Taiwan row is on the import table.1-6 monthsWave 2 (indirect)WITS HS 8427 and HS 8428
Industrial landlords and lendersU.S. logistics buildings start full, so the first cash question is handling revenue, not a printed vacancy collapse.1-12 monthsWave 2 (indirect)Prologis Q3 2026 U.S. operating portfolio
Inland replenishment warehousesInland buildings that handle domestic replenishment keep a high occupancy print when the China box stops.0-12 monthsWave 3 (indirect)Prologis Lehigh Valley, Central Valley, and Chicago rows
Small public warehousesFirms with fewer than 20 employees are numerous, and a second system outage hits them without a spare hosted platform.1-12 monthsWave 3 (direct)SUSB 2022 firms under 20 employees

Sources