A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large-scale cyber disruption in waves. This is a planning scenario, not a forecast. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.

Data Centers & Digital Infrastructure — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

Read the Australia briefingReport date 2026-11-07

What happens

The binding U.S. constraint is the power queue, not a cloud subscription. Approximately 54 GW of capacity is under contract. Data center billing peak load is 4.8 GW. The deck counts approximately 500 data center metered accounts and 55 data center companies.
pjm.com
As of July 2026 the same deck splits that contract book into 11,997 MW of electric service agreements, 9,356 MW of construction letters of authorization, and 32,473 MW of engineering letters of authorization. The deck states that 59 percent of engineering letters of authorization are outside the forecast.
pjm.com
A May 2026 Dominion report, an earlier vintage than the July contract deck, says the company has assigned energization dates to 25 gigawatts of new data centers through 2031 and has not offered dates for an additional 45 gigawatts. Those two prints are a dated queue and an undated queue. They are not added to the July 54 GW contract total.
sustainability.dominionenergy.com
Servers and accelerators are the import channel. NVIDIA uses foundries such as Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company and Samsung to produce wafers, and it says component manufacture and final assembly are concentrated in China, Hong Kong, Israel, Korea, and Taiwan. Fiscal 2026 Data Center revenue was 193,737 million dollars. The calculated Data Center share of total revenue of 215,938 million dollars is 89.7 percent.
sec.gov
The short price analog is one month, not a year-over-year peak. Commercial retail power was 13.62 cents per kilowatthour in January 2026 and 14.37 cents in February 2026. The calculated one-month rise is 5.5 percent. From January to June the prints are 13.62 and 14.18 cents. The calculated five-month rise is 4.1 percent.
eia.gov
Enterprise scale is halls and megawatts, not an average cybercrime cost. The portfolio includes 118 data centers in the United States, inside a global count of 310. Projects underway were 769 megawatts, and 64 percent of this data center activity was pre-leased.
sec.gov
The hall cyber path that CISA has already named is DCIM, cooling and power monitors, and UPS management interfaces. EcoStruxure IT Data Center Expert at CVSS v4 9.5 can disrupt operations. Liebert monitors at CVSS v4 9.3 can cause a denial of service or remote code execution. UPS loads range up to a data center.
cisa.gov cisa.gov cisa.gov

What stops the hall, the interconnection, and the server

China trade stopping removes the assembly geography NVIDIA names alongside Taiwan. The 10-K does not print a China share of final assembly. Customer-headquarters revenue from China including Hong Kong was 19,677 million dollars. The calculated share of total revenue of 215,938 million dollars is 9.1 percent. That figure is sales to China-headquartered customers. It is not the customs value of a finished server.
sec.gov
A Taiwan export slowdown hits wafers and assembly. NVIDIA uses foundries such as TSMC and Samsung. It says the business depends on supply from Taiwan and South Korea. Customers headquartered in Taiwan accounted for 42,345 million dollars of total revenue. The footnote estimates that 76 percent of Data Center revenue from Taiwan-headquartered customers was attributed to end customers in the United States and Europe.
sec.gov
The domestic break in week 1 is power and the building systems, not a lost Chinese buyer of compute. Dominion's latest load-serving-entity peak on the deck is 19,775 MW on 30 June 2026. Data center billing peak load is 4.8 GW against approximately 54 GW under contract.
pjm.com
New halls do not jump the queue. The May report says dates are assigned generally first-in, first-out as transmission projects are approved, and the company does not build all long-term infrastructure at once. The GS-5 tariff, effective 1 January 2027, sets a 14-year contract inclusive of a four-year ramp.
sustainability.dominionenergy.com
A cyber wave against the hall does not need to steal tenant data to stop the floor. Successful exploitation of EcoStruxure IT Data Center Expert could disrupt operations and access system data. Liebert RDU101 and IS-UNITY flaws could cause a denial of service or remote code execution. CISA says UPS management interfaces have been reached through unchanged default credentials, and a UPS load can be a data center.
cisa.gov cisa.gov cisa.gov
The Information Technology Sector mission is to identify and protect against cyber threats and vulnerabilities. That sector page does not print a data-center megawatt total or a wave calendar.
cisa.gov

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

Short-horizon price analog: commercial retail electricity moved from 13.62 cents per kilowatthour in January 2026 to 14.37 cents in February 2026. The calculated one-month rise is 5.5 percent. The figure is rounded to one decimal from those two preliminary prints. It is not a year-over-year peak and it is not a data-center contract rate.
eia.gov
No fetched page prints days of a data-center outage or weeks of a server lead time. The operating clock that is printed for new load is a 5-year ramp, which is not the 0-3 month band.
pjm.com

1–6 months

Five-month price analog: 13.62 cents in January 2026 to 14.18 cents in June 2026. The calculated five-month rise is 4.1 percent, rounded to one decimal. June is below the February print of 14.37 cents, so the accumulated path is not a straight climb.
eia.gov

12+ months

Long-horizon price analog: the commercial average was up 4.3 percent from a year earlier. August 2026 commercial price was 14.47 cents per kilowatthour. The interconnection stock that does not clear inside a year is the additional 45 gigawatts without dates, and the contract that binds a customer who does connect is 14 years.
eia.gov sustainability.dominionenergy.com

Wave 1

Wave 1 is the hall itself: DCIM, the cooling and power monitors, the UPS controller, and the network inside the hall. Campus power interconnection is wave 1 indirect because the hall stops when the feed stops. Cable landings are wave 1 indirect for cross-border workloads and are not the Virginia queue. This ordering is a planning model.

cisa.gov cisa.gov cisa.gov cisa.gov

Wave 2

Wave 2 is the server fleet as a direct target once the hall network is the path, and colocation tenants as an indirect outage when cooling, UPS, or that network fails. Tenant demand in the Dominion note is cloud and AI inference load. It is not a cloud-revenue figure. This ordering is a planning model.

pjm.com sec.gov

Wave 3

Wave 3 is the distributed set: 10,294 hosting establishments with fewer than 5 employees, as a direct controller risk, and fit-out counterparties as an indirect stop when dates or servers slip. The establishment count is the scale. No average cybercrime dollar is used. This ordering is a planning model.

www2.census.gov bls.gov

Country exposure

origin sharepercent

59levelengineering letters outside forecast

The deck states that 59 percent of engineering letters of authorization are outside the forecast.

Dominion PJM deck

55.5levelsmall hosting establishments

The calculated small-establishment share is 55.5 percent.

Census CBP

Cost and price shock by time bucket

price changepercent

5.5increase0-3 monthsone-month commercial retail

The calculated one-month rise is 5.5 percent.

EIA Table 5.3

4.1increase1-6 monthsfive-month commercial retail

The calculated five-month rise is 4.1 percent.

EIA Table 5.3

4.3increase12+ monthsAugust commercial retail, year on year

The commercial average was up 4.3 percent from a year earlier.

EIA end-use update

Downstream scale

countscount

500levelDominion metered accounts

Dominion counted 500 data center metered accounts.

Dominion PJM deck

118levelDigital Realty US data centers

The portfolio includes 118 data centers in the United States

Digital Realty 10-K

load gwgigawatts

54levelDominion capacity under contract

Approximately 54 GW of capacity is under contract.

Dominion PJM deck

4.8levelDominion billing peak

Data center billing peak load is 4.8 GW.

Dominion PJM deck

workforcethousand people

454.8levelNAICS 518 employment

The preliminary employment print is 454.8 thousand.

BLS NAICS 518

Operating prints

ratespercent

63levelDominion ramp utilization

The printed utilization rate is 63 percent.

Dominion PJM deck

64levelpre-leased construction

64 percent of this data center activity was pre-leased.

Digital Realty 10-K

What to do

Day 7

Take UPS management interfaces off the internet and confirm they are not on factory default credentials. Enumerate EcoStruxure IT Data Center Expert versions at or before 8.3 and Liebert RDU101 and IS-UNITY versions at or before the advisory cutoffs.
cisa.gov cisa.gov cisa.gov

Day 30

Split the power book into metered load, electric service agreements, construction letters, and engineering letters. Metered billing peak is 4.8 GW. Engineering letters outside the forecast are the 59 percent.
pjm.com

Day 90

Mark every new hall to a connection date or to the undated 45 gigawatt bucket. Confirm GS-5 collateral will be posted before the meter is set, and whether a 20 percent release with 36 months' notice is available.
sustainability.dominionenergy.com

What to watch

GS-5 generation minimum demand charge. The published floor is 60 percent of contracted generation demand, billed monthly as the higher of actual demand or that share. It is a Commission-approved tariff term effective 1 January 2027, not a planning line.
sustainability.dominionenergy.com
GS-5 transmission and distribution minimum demand charge. The published floor is 85 percent of contracted transmission and distribution demand. It is a Commission-approved tariff term, not a planning line.
sustainability.dominionenergy.com
Dominion data center billing peak. Act when data center billing peak prints below 4.8 GW. That is the August 2026 level on the Dominion deck. The 4.8 GW line is a planning line. Dominion did not publish it as a covenant.
pjm.com
One-month change in U.S. commercial retail electricity price. Act when the commercial average rises by more than 5.5 percent in one month. The 5.5 percent line is the calculated January-to-February 2026 move from 13.62 to 14.37 cents, rounded to one decimal. It is a planning line. EIA does not publish this tripwire, and the series is not a data-center tariff.
eia.gov

By role

Campus operators and colocation landlords

Separate 4.8 GW of billing peak from the 54 GW contract headline and from the 59 percent of engineering letters outside the forecast.
Remove UPS and DCIM management interfaces from the internet and patch EcoStruxure through version 8.3 and the listed Liebert versions.
Do not treat the 5.5 percent commercial move as the invoice. The invoice path for a new high-load customer is the GS-5 floor.

pjm.com cisa.gov sustainability.dominionenergy.com

Server buyers

Ask which wafers are TSMC and which are Samsung. The 10-K names both and prints no split.
Do not book the 76 percent footnote as the Taiwan content of a server. It is an end-customer attribution.
Treat China as a named assembly geography without a customs share until a Census line is opened.

sec.gov

Utility and fit-out counterparties

Date only the 25 gigawatts the May report says already have dates through 2031. Hold the additional 45 gigawatts as undated.
Collect collateral before the meter is set. Use the 20 percent release with 36 months' notice if a customer cannot take the load.

sustainability.dominionenergy.com

Uptime and property insurers

Schedule the enterprise book as 118 U.S. data centers and 769 megawatts underway, 64 percent pre-leased.
Do not price a national outage day count. None was published on the CISA pages opened.

sec.gov cisa.gov

Weekly checks

Dominion data center billing peak, GW It is the energized book. A print under 4.8 GW is the planning line for load already on the system.
pjm.com
U.S. commercial retail price, cents per kilowatthour The one-month analog is the move from 13.62 to 14.37 cents. It is not the campus contract price, but it is the published monthly power print.
eia.gov
Share of engineering letters outside the forecast The deck states that 59 percent of engineering letters of authorization are outside the forecast. A rise means more of the queue is non-firm.
pjm.com
Internet-exposed UPS and DCIM management interfaces CISA's UPS action is to remove management interfaces from the internet. EcoStruxure and Liebert flaws are remotely exploitable at low complexity.
cisa.gov cisa.gov
NAICS 518 all-employee count, thousands The preliminary employment print is 454.8 thousand. It is hosting and data processing employment, not a headcount of hall technicians alone.
bls.gov

What is not known

Observed baselines are the Dominion deck, the GS-5 report, EIA table 5.3 and the August monthly update, the Digital Realty 10-K, the NVIDIA 10-K, County Business Patterns 2023, the BLS NAICS 518 page, and the three CISA documents. Inferences are wave order, any claim that a 2027 price path matches early 2026, and the ability of Samsung or Micron to replace a Taiwan shortfall.
pjm.com eia.gov sec.gov
Decision-changing limit. The unpublished primary is a Census country split, in dollars, of U.S. imports of automatic data processing machines. The Census international-trade API returned a missing-key page. The current FT-900 exhibit 7 URL returned HTTP 404. No China or Taiwan customs share of servers is stated. The FERC large-load page returned HTTP 403 and is not quoted. BLS was read by a fetch after a direct download returned HTTP 403.
sec.gov bls.gov
Calculated figures use two printed inputs and are labeled. The 5.5 percent uses 14.37 and 13.62. The 4.1 percent uses 14.18 and 13.62. The 89.7 percent uses 193,737 and 215,938. The 19.6 percent uses 42,345 and 215,938. The 9.1 percent uses 19,677 and 215,938. The 55.5 percent uses 10,294 and 18,544. Each is rounded to one decimal. Sums of the three contract tiers are not turned into a share.
eia.gov sec.gov www2.census.gov
NAICS 518 and 518210 include data processing and hosting infrastructure. They are not a census of data halls. The hall counts used are 118 U.S. data centers and approximately 500 metered accounts. Commercial electricity prices are not GS-5 rates. The about 2.9 GW in-place figure is global. Six Australian sites on that REIT are a count, not a claim that Australia is a U.S. hyperscale pipeline. No days-of-outage figure and no weeks-of-server-lead-time figure were published on the pages opened.
bls.gov www2.census.gov sec.gov eia.gov

Working papers: node summary

Node	Primary impact	Time horizon	Cyber wave	Evidence
Data halls	A DCIM compromise can disrupt monitoring of the hall even when the utility feed is still up.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	CISA EcoStruxure advisory; Digital Realty 10-K
Campus power interconnection	Energization of new halls waits on a utility queue that already has gigawatts without connection dates.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Dominion PJM deck; Dominion GS-5 report
UPS and backup generation	An internet-exposed UPS management interface can drop the backup path the hall uses when utility power fails.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	CISA UPS insight
Cooling plant	A remote authentication bypass on cooling and power monitors can force a thermal shutdown of the hall.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	CISA Liebert advisory
Server and accelerator fleet	New accelerator deliveries slow when Taiwan wafer and assembly output is limited, and China is named in the same assembly concentration list.	1-6 months	Wave 2 (direct)	NVIDIA fiscal 2026 10-K
Hall network	The switching fabric inside the hall is the path a DCIM or UPS compromise uses to reach customer ports.	0-3 months	Wave 1 (direct)	CISA IT sector page; CISA UPS insight
Submarine cable landings	International tenant paths are not the U.S. campus constraint; a landing outage is an indirect hit on cross-border workloads, not on Dominion's queue.	0-6 months	Wave 1 (indirect)	Dominion PJM deck
Colocation tenants	Tenant workloads stop when the hall loses cooling, UPS, or the in-hall network, even if the tenant's own application is intact.	0-6 months	Wave 2 (indirect)	Dominion PJM deck; Digital Realty 10-K
Fit-out counterparties	Electrical and mechanical contractors lose the next hall when the utility will not date the interconnection or the server shipment slips.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (indirect)	Dominion GS-5 report; NVIDIA 10-K
Small hosting establishments	Hosting establishments with fewer than five employees have no campus queue of their own and fail when a shared upstream hall or their own exposed controller is hit.	1-12 months	Wave 3 (direct)	Census CBP 2023; BLS NAICS 518; CISA UPS insight

Data Centers & Digital Infrastructure — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)

What happens

What stops the hall, the interconnection, and the server

How hard, how soon

0–3 months

1–6 months

12+ months

Wave 1

Wave 2

Wave 3

Country exposure

Cost and price shock by time bucket

Downstream scale

Operating prints

What to do

Day 7

Day 30

Day 90

What to watch

By role

Campus operators and colocation landlords

Server buyers

Utility and fit-out counterparties

Uptime and property insurers

Weekly checks

What is not known

Sources