A 2027 U.S.–China conflict with Australia aligned to the U.S. China trade stops immediately, Taiwan exports are slowed/limited, and China launches large‑scale cyber disruption in waves. Planning scenario, not a forecast. No end date is set.
Textiles & Apparel — United States (Investor-Grade, Downstream Focus)
What happens
China was 22.4 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value. Vietnam was 18.0 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value. Honduras was 4.3 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value. A China stop removes the China slice of the knit book. Vietnam, Cambodia, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and the Western Hemisphere sewing belt keep shipping.
The knit shares are calculated on one page. China is $10,634,348.30 thousand and Vietnam is $8,520,742.52 thousand against a world total of $47,374,918.52 thousand, rounded to one decimal. Honduras is $2,030,601.53 thousand on that page. Cambodia is $2,793,509.93 thousand, Bangladesh is $2,627,013.68 thousand, India is $2,411,850.35 thousand, and Indonesia is $2,297,955.19 thousand. No Taiwan or Taipei row is on the page.
Woven apparel is a second book. World imports were $36,334,604.98 thousand. China was $7,759,566.84 thousand, calculated as 21.4 percent. Bangladesh was $4,777,397.45 thousand, calculated as 13.1 percent. Vietnam was $6,805,172.97 thousand and keeps shipping. No Taiwan row is on the woven page.
Cotton moves the other way. U.S. cotton exports were $6,177,245.50 thousand. China was 24.1 percent of U.S. cotton export value, calculated from China's $1,490,842.04 thousand on the same page. Pakistan was $771,993.41 thousand, Honduras was $633,262.77 thousand, Vietnam was $582,006.03 thousand, and Mexico was $424,366.08 thousand. Those buyers keep a destination when China stops.
Taiwan's dependency for this industry is fabric, not a foundry share. Taiwan Textile Federation, using Customs data, states textile and apparel exports declined from US$6.73 billion in 2024 to US$6.22 billion. In 2025 Vietnam took US$1.87 billion and 30.1 percent, and the United States took US$0.59 billion and 9.5 percent. The share of a U.S. garment whose fabric is Taiwanese is not printed.
Past the factory, Port of Los Angeles apparel imports were 349,063 TEUs in the middle column of the port's three-year import list. On a typical fiscal 2024 day CBP processes 3.8 million de minimis shipments and $9.2 billion of imported products. Gap Inc. Net sales were $15.4 billion in fiscal 2025, with 2,474 Company-operated stores.
The apparel index rose 1.3 percent in November after being unchanged in October. That one-month move is the 0–3 month price analog. Table A prints a 6.8 percent twelve-month apparel change for the period ended in March. The twelve-month print is the 1–6 month band, not the first quarter.
Half of the small businesses in the JPMorgan Chase Institute sample hold a cash buffer large enough to support 27 days of typical outflows. The sample is 597,000 small businesses and is all industries, not apparel. Wave 1 is ports and customs. Wave 2 is brand and lender systems. Wave 3 is the independent shop.
Why U.S. textiles and apparel get hit, and what keeps moving
A China trade stop removes China's $10,634,348.30 thousand of knit apparel and $7,759,566.84 thousand of woven apparel. It does not remove Vietnam's $8,520,742.52 thousand of knit apparel or $6,805,172.97 thousand of woven apparel. Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, Cambodia, Honduras, and Mexico remain on the partner pages.
Taiwan export limits hit fabric that feeds sewing countries, and a smaller direct book to the United States. Table 3 prints fabrics at 47.8 in units of US$100 million for 2024, inside the export total the prose states as US$6.73 billion. In 2025 Vietnam remained the largest market at US$1.87 billion. The United States was US$0.59 billion. A garment-level Taiwan-fabric share is the unpublished limit.
Cotton exporters lose the China buyer at $1,490,842.04 thousand and still have Pakistan, Honduras, Vietnam, and Mexico on the same export page. That is the opposite cash flow from the apparel importer, who loses a supply origin and keeps other origins.
Port and customs friction hits the boxes and the parcels that remain. The Los Angeles page lists apparel among top containerized imports, and the middle-column apparel figure is the 349,063 TEU print. CBP's typical day processes 88,582 truck, rail, and sea containers and 3.8 million de minimis shipments.
Cyber disruption is the third hit. CISA describes pre-positioning for disruptive activity against critical infrastructure in a crisis or conflict. Applying that pattern to ports first, brand systems second, and independent shops third is inference. It is not an apparel outage statistic.
How hard, how soon
1–6 months
12+ months
No later apparel-price plateau was opened. The last fetched apparel accumulation remains the 6.8 percent twelve-month change. Substitution cash that is fetched is the non-China partner list, not a new price index.
Wave 1
Wave 1 is critical infrastructure. CISA says Volt Typhoon actors are seeking to pre-position on IT networks for disruptive or destructive cyber activity against U.S. critical infrastructure in a major crisis or conflict. For this industry that tag is applied to ports, customs, and the export gate. Trucking, parcels, and cotton merchants are indirect because they fail when those systems fail.
Wave 2
Wave 2 is the enterprise layer that buys, mills, sews, sells at chain scale, and finances inventory. Gap's store and purchase systems are the operational example. The filing describes technology and inventory systems. It does not describe a cyber outage. Wave order stays a planning model. The opened apparel loss dollar is Marks and Spencer's current estimate before mitigation, an impact on Group operating profit of around £300m, with online disruption expected throughout June and into July. That United Kingdom case is not assigned to a U.S. wave.
Wave 3
Wave 3 is the independent shop and the uniform buyer who sits behind the importer. The cash fact for the shop is the 27-day all-industry buffer. The wave assignment is inference.
Origin exposure
origin sharepercent
China was 22.4 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value
WITS UN ComtradeVietnam was 18.0 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value
WITS UN ComtradeHonduras was 4.3 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value
WITS UN Comtradecotton export sharepercent
China was 24.1 percent of U.S. cotton export value
WITS UN ComtradeApparel price analogs by time bucket
price changepercent
The apparel index rose 1.3 percent
BLS CPI November 2021Table A prints a 6.8 percent twelve-month apparel change
BLS CPI March 2022Downstream scale
gateway teuTEU
apparel imports were 349,063 TEUs
Port of Los Angelessalesbillion dollars
Net sales were $15.4 billion
Gap Inc. Form 10-KOperating prints
cash bufferdays
support 27 days
JPMorgan Chase InstituteWhat to do
Day 7
Split open orders into the China knit row of $10,634,348.30 thousand and the non-China rows, and flag any Vietnam or Indonesia order whose fabric origin is unknown.
Confirm the Los Angeles apparel path against the 349,063 TEU baseline and the de minimis path against 3.8 million shipments on a typical day.
Day 30
Move cotton offers toward the buyers that remain: Pakistan, Honduras, Vietnam, and Mexico, against the lost China lane of $1,490,842.04 thousand.
Ask mills which knitted-fabric and filament receipts are the China rows of $239,655.15 thousand and $374,839.24 thousand.
Day 90
Qualify more Western Hemisphere sewing only where a dollar flow already exists, including Honduras knit at $2,030,601.53 thousand and Mexico woven at $1,793,522.31 thousand. A domestic employment series for cut-and-sew was not opened, so headcount capacity is not the trigger.
What to watch
Monthly apparel CPI. Act when the monthly apparel index rises by at least the printed one-month move. The apparel index rose 1.3 percent in November. The 1.3 percent line is a planning line set against that baseline, not a BLS rule. The 6.8 percent twelve-month change is the later band and is not this trigger.
China knit-apparel receipts. Act when the next published China knit-apparel import value is not offset by higher Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Honduras values against the baseline China row of $10,634,348.30 thousand. The offset test is a planning line. WITS does not print a weekly covenant.
Brand Vietnam factory share. Act when a brand's Vietnam factory share prints at or above 27 percent while the China-origin fabric share inside those orders is still unpublished. Approximately 27 percent is Gap's fiscal 2025 purchase share. The Indonesia marker on the same filing is approximately 21 percent. Both are planning markers, not an industry covenant.
De minimis daily clears. Act when daily de minimis clears print below 3.8 million. That line is the CBP typical-day baseline used as a planning floor, not a CBP operating covenant. An apparel-only subset of the 3.8 million is unpublished.
Small-business cash buffer days. Act when a shop's cash buffer prints below 27 days. The median small business can support 27 days of typical outflows. The 27-day line is a planning line set against that all-industry median, not an apparel covenant.
Los Angeles apparel TEUs. Act when a full-year Los Angeles apparel import print falls below 349,063 TEUs. Apparel imports were 349,063 TEUs in the CY 2024 column. The 349,063 line is a planning line against that column, not a port rule.
By role
Cotton merchants
Re-offer bales to Pakistan, Honduras, Vietnam, and Mexico against the China lane of $1,490,842.04 thousand.
Importers and brands
Keep Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Honduras orders moving, and test fabric origin on the Vietnam book.
Do not read Gap's approximately 27 percent Vietnam share as a national China exit. The filing does not print a China share.
Retailers and lenders
Stress markdowns against the 1.3 percent one-month apparel analog and the approximately $4 billion purchase-obligation scale.
Give independent accounts a 27-day cash test and do not apply that test to the chain.
Weekly checks
Knit-apparel receipts from China versus Vietnam and Honduras China was 22.4 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value. A weekly customs series was not opened, so the KPI is the next published partner file against that annual baseline.
Apparel CPI, one-month change The apparel index rose 1.3 percent in November. That is the short-horizon analog to watch, separate from the twelve-month print.
De minimis shipments cleared per day The typical-day baseline is 3.8 million de minimis shipments.
Los Angeles apparel TEUs The CY 2024 column is the 349,063 TEU apparel print.
Cotton export value to China versus Pakistan, Honduras, Vietnam, and Mexico China was 24.1 percent of U.S. cotton export value. The other four named buyers are the replacement destinations already on the page.
What is not known
Decision-changing limits. No Taiwan or Taipei row appears on the opened U.S. knit or woven apparel pages, so direct finished-garment exposure to Taiwan is not in those statistics. The share of a U.S. garment that is sewn from Taiwanese fabric is not printed. Taiwan's export book is printed: US$6.73 billion in 2024, Vietnam US$1.87 billion in 2025, United States US$0.59 billion in 2025. That book is Taiwan's exports, not a garment-content share. Knitting-machine imports name Other Asia, nes at $13,375.56 thousand and do not name Taiwan. HS 8438, food-or-drink machinery, names Other Asia, nes at $38,223.62 thousand and does not name Taiwan. Knitted fabric names Other Asia, nes at $41,708.31 thousand and does not name Taiwan. Those labels are not converted to a Taiwan share.
wits.worldbank.orgtextiles.org.twwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.org
Calculated shares use two figures from the same fetched page and are rounded to one decimal. China was 22.4 percent of U.S. knit-apparel import value from $10,634,348.30 thousand over $47,374,918.52 thousand. Vietnam was 18.0 percent from $8,520,742.52 thousand over that world total. Honduras was 4.3 percent from $2,030,601.53 thousand over that world total. Woven China was 21.4 percent from $7,759,566.84 thousand over $36,334,604.98 thousand. Woven Bangladesh was 13.1 percent from $4,777,397.45 thousand over that world total. China was 24.1 percent of U.S. cotton export value from $1,490,842.04 thousand over $6,177,245.50 thousand. Knitted-fabric China was 26.5 percent from $239,655.15 thousand over $905,597.58 thousand.
wits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.orgwits.worldbank.org
Unopened or unusable primaries. An OTEXA dollar major-shippers file was not opened. A dated Census clothing-store sales month was not used. A BLS apparel-manufacturing employment series was not opened. A Section 301 apparel duty rate was not opened. The 27-day cash buffer is not an apparel sample. Gap does not print days of supply or a China purchase share. Cyber wave order is inference from the CISA critical-infrastructure advisory, which prints no apparel loss figure. The opened loss dollar is the Marks and Spencer estimate of around £300m, and it is not a U.S. retailer loss.
jpmorganchase.comsec.govcorporate.marksandspencer.comcisa.govcisa.gov
Table discipline on Taiwan. The fabrics 73.2 percent share is the 2025 share in Table 3, not a 2024 share. Table 2's 2024 export total of 67.4 and Table 3's 67.3, both in US$100 million, are both printed and they differ. Citations of US$6.73 billion follow the prose and Table 3.
Working papers: node summary
| Node | Primary impact | Time horizon | Cyber wave | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cotton exporters and merchants | China-bound cotton receipts stop while Pakistan, Honduras, Vietnam, and Mexico keep buying. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Textile mills | China-origin knitted fabric and filament stop; other fabric origins keep shipping. | 0–6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Domestic cut-and-sew plants | Western Hemisphere sewing keeps shipping; a U.S. plant headcount was not opened. | 1–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Apparel importers and brand sourcing | China-origin orders stop; Vietnam, Bangladesh, India, Indonesia, and Western Hemisphere factories keep shipping. | 0–6 months | Wave 2 (direct) | wits.worldbank.org |
| Ports and marine terminals | Apparel boxes at the largest quantified U.S. apparel gateway stop or slow. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | portoflosangeles.org |
| Customs and forced-labor holds | Entry and forced-labor holds slow the container gate and the parcel gate. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (direct) | cbp.gov |
| Inland trucking and distribution centers | Store replenishment waits on the port and the highway system. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | portoflosangeles.org |
| National retail chains | Shelf gaps and markdown risk on a multi-billion-dollar chain book. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | sec.gov |
| Independent specialty shops and alterations | A missed delivery meets a cash buffer measured in days, not in a chain revolver. | 0–3 months | Wave 3 (direct) | jpmorganchase.com |
| E-commerce and de minimis parcels | Daily low-value clears are a customs-system dependency. | 0–3 months | Wave 1 (indirect) | cbp.gov |
| Inventory lenders and trade finance | Open purchase commitments stay due while China-origin receipts slip. | 0–12 months | Wave 2 (direct) | sec.gov |
| Uniform and workwear programs | Program garments ride the same import book; a uniform-only dollar split is unpublished. | 1–12 months | Wave 3 (indirect) | wits.worldbank.org |
Sources
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. knit apparel imports, 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. woven apparel imports, 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. knitted fabric imports, 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. man-made filament imports, 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. cotton exports, 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. knitting-machine imports, 2024, HS 8447
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. sewing-machine imports, 2024, HS 8452
- Taiwan Textile Federation, textile and apparel trade review
- BLS CPI news release, November 2021
- BLS CPI news release, March 2022
- Port of Los Angeles, about and statistics
- CBP typical day, fiscal year 2024
- Gap Inc. Form 10-K, fiscal year ended 31 January 2026
- JPMorgan Chase Institute, cash buffer days
- CISA Volt Typhoon alert, 7 February 2024
- WITS UN Comtrade, U.S. food-or-drink machinery imports, 2024, HS 8438
- Marks and Spencer full-year results, 52 weeks ended 29 March 2025